COLUMBUS, Ohio -- It's quite possible we're watching Bryan Rust's career peak before our very eyes.
Sure, he scored some monumental and timely goals en route to the Penguins' back-to-back Stanley Cups in 2016 and 2017 -- and even picked up the nickname "Big Game Bryan" along the way -- but his overall impact on the Penguins has never been greater.
Since the start of 2022, not a single NHL player is producing points on a per game basis higher than Rust, who has racked up 12 goals and 11 assists in 12 games during that span. On a per hour of ice time basis, only the Panthers' Mason Marchment is outproducing Rust's ridiculous 6.2 points per hour since the calendar flipped. For reference, Sidney Crosby produced 5.46 points per hour during his injury-shortened 2011-12 campaign, which was the highest of his career by more than an entire point per hour.
Rust won't continue to get on the scoresheet more frequently than Crosby in his prime, and even the 4.35 points per hour he's put up over the entire season is ripe to level out, but that won't make him any less integral to the Penguins' success.
On top of shooting more frequently than he ever has before, as well as generating individual chances at the highest rate of his career, Rust has emerged as an elite power-play weapon on an already stacked unit. Over the past three seasons, Rust has the sixth-highest isolated impact on scoring power-play goals among all NHL skaters, per Evolving Hockey's RAPM model. Yes, even higher than Crosby and Evgeni Malkin.
In a lot of ways, Rust embodies the hard forechecking, relentless puck retrieval and up-tempo style that Mike Sullivan envisions for his club. Inherently, that style can play a part in being prone to injury ... something Rust has been familiar with over the course of his career. He has missed double-digit games in all but two of his seven seasons as a full-time member of the Penguins.
That's one of a lengthy list of factors to consider when examining Rust's future with the team, as he is set to become an unrestricted free agent at season's end.
Another factor to consider is that Rust will be 30 by the time free agency rolls around. It isn't to say they can't be effective or even strong players, but 30 is the age where forwards start to see a non-marginal decrease in their overall impact. Of course, not every player's trajectory is the same, and Rust is even bucking the trend with a career-year at 29.
That doesn't change the fact that Rust has been severely underpaid for what he's brought to the table. If logic serves, not only will he be after a deal that likely overpays him in the latter years, there will be teams other than the Penguins ready to give it to him.
According to Dom Luszczyszyn's statistical model, Rust's market value checks in at $10.5 million. Will he get that come summertime? Certainly not, but it wouldn't shock me at all to see him cash-in on a six-year deal with a cap-hit in the range of $6.5 million - $7.5 million. This past offseason the Oilers signed 29-year old Zach Hyman to a seven-year contract with an annual cap-hit of $5.5 million. Even being a year older at the time of signing, Rust is sure to command quite a bit more than that.
Will the Penguins be able to afford such a commitment?
Should they even if they could?
As it stands, the Penguins have the following forwards under contract heading into next season:
- Crosby
- Jake Guentzel
- Brock McGinn
- Jeff Carter
- Teddy Blueger
- Jason Zucker
- Radim Zohorna
That's it.
Have I mentioned that two franchise legends in Malkin and Kris Letang are due new deals as well?
Carter's recent contract extension indicated that Ron Hextall plans on keeping the Penguins' core together -- at least as much as possible.
Per CapFriendly, the Penguins are projected to have just shy of $30 million in cap-space once the offseason hits. For a moment, whether it's the right thing to do or not, let's assume the Penguins retain both Malkin and Letang for a combined annual cap-hit of $14 million. That would leave fewer than $16 million to sign six forwards, a lower-end right-handed defenseman and a backup goalie.
I've seen the idea floated out there that the Penguins should ship Zucker out of town to create more cap-space, but I have a hard time believing the Penguins would find a suitor for him without retaining some of his salary. And then they've just got another forward spot to fill.
If Rust checks in at $6.5 million, the Penguins are looking at slightly above $9 million to work with. Bring back Danton Heinen and Evan Rodrigues for a combined $5.5 million and suddenly there's a chance they could keep the band together and fill out the remainder of the roster with close to league-minimum deals.
There's obviously a lot of moving parts to this, and hinders on certain players taking less money than they could get elsewhere. It can be done, but the Penguins' depth won't be anything to write home about, especially when the always-lurking injury bug comes knocking.
Should the Penguins just play it safe and move Rust before this season's trade deadline to avoid the risk of losing him for nothing?
Simply put ... no.
The way I see it, the Penguins realistically have this season and next to legitimately contend for another Stanley Cup during the Crosby-era.
Nothing significant is on the way in terms of youth worth building around. There are dark days looming for the Penguins, so they might as well make a final push for glory, even at the expense of putting themselves in a worse spot down the road. If you're going to suck, you gotta really suck. Otherwise you'll spend a decade middling among the league without making any tangible progress toward getting better.
In a convoluted -- and maybe overly optimistic -- way, the Penguins handicapping themselves down the road might actually speed up their organizational makeover rather than trying to stay competitive to no avail in the absence of their icons.
No matter how you cut it, right now, and next season, the Penguins are a better hockey team with Rust on it. If your goal is to win right now, you do everything you can to keep him around. They aren't replacing his value on the open-market. They don't have anyone in-house that can replace his production.
This may be the only time you ever hear me say this, and it would require a number of other pieces to fall in place, but the Penguins should expense their future to re-sign their injury-prone winger that will soon be on the wrong side of 30 in hopes of one last hoo-rah.