The NFL Scouting Combine will be held next week in Indianapolis, kicking off what is effectively the start of the 2022 season.
A little more than a week after the teams return from Indianapolis, free agency begins March 16. Then, it's on to the draft at the end of April.
So, what might the Steelers look like a little over three months from now? Perhaps quite different than they did in 2021. And that extends beyond the quarterback position, where they'll line up in 2022 without Ben Roethlisberger to open a season for the first time in nearly two decades.
So, let's hop in the time machine and see what could transpire for the Steelers in the coming months as we look at the different options.
FREE AGENCY
After drafting two rookie linemen in 2021, don't expect the Steelers to add to their offensive line again in this year's draft -- at least not early.
Chances are, they'll go for a veteran free agent or two up front, depending largely on whether or not right tackle Chuks Okorafor is re-signed.
With left tackle Dan Moore, left guard Kevin Dotson and center Kendrick Green sure to return, adding a veteran presence in 2022 is a must.
The team tried that in 2021 by signing Trai Turner after minicamp when it was learned David DeCastro would be unable to play because of a degenerative ankle injury. Turner provided a veteran presence at right guard, but with roughly $30 million in available salary cap space, the Steelers can afford to do better there.
A veteran center-guard prospect also would make sense. View it as adding more talented B.J. Finney/J.C. Hassenauer. Then, if Green again struggles in his second season at center, the Steelers would have a better option.
If Okorafor isn't resigned, adding a veteran right tackle becomes a necessity. And those can be more expensive than guards, though the team does still have Zach Banner under contract. But, can Banner be trusted after missing most of the past two seasons?
From there, what the team does will largely depend on what happens with cornerbacks Joe Haden and Ahkello Witherspoon, both of whom are slated to be unrestricted free agents.
Re-sign one or both, and the cornerback position becomes less of a need. If both or one leaves, the Steelers will be in the market for a corner, as well.
A low-priced free agent receiver and running back would make some sense, as well, particularly if JuJu Smith-Schuster leaves, while if Terrell Edmunds isn't re-signed, the Steelers also would be in the market for a strong safety.
What I think will happen: Sign G James Daniels from the Bears or someone of his talent level and G-C Ethan Pocic from the Seahawks on the line along with bringing back Okorafor. GM Kevin Colbert said earlier this week that adding another capable body to the line was probably his biggest regret from the 2021 season. The Steelers shouldn't make the mistake again -- especially since they now have the money to add to that group that they didn't have in 2021.
Re-sign Haden and Witherspoon. Sign a mid-level free agent wide receiver such as Allen Lazard or Russell Gage to serve as the No. 3 or 4 wideout -- more on that later -- assuming Smith-Schuster leaves.
If Edmunds prices himself out of a return, look for a talented young safety such as Malik Hooker, who has experience at both free and strong safety, as a potential replacement. That would allow the Steelers to rotate Minkah Fitzpatrick or Hooker at deep safety or in the box as both have good range, making them less predictable.
Finally, add a veteran running back who can take some pressure off Najee Harris. Going into next season, the Steelers figure to be a run-heavy offense. Take some pressure off the young running back while also improving the depth there.
Add a player such as Jerrick McKinnon or Sony Michel to the mix. It has to be someone who can handle being the lead back if something were to happen to Harris, but who also is content being in a secondary role.
THE WILD CARD
Much of the focus of fans in free agency will be on the quarterback position. And that's fine. But unless the Steelers want to get into a bidding war for Mitch Trubisky -- who appears as if he'll have a more robust market than what he's worth -- or Marcus Mariota, that might not be the route to go.
Jameis Winston, who is coming off a torn ACL, will likely re-sign with the Saints. And signing someone such as Teddy Bridgewater or Tyrod Taylor doesn't do much to move the needle.
The Steelers will give Mason Rudolph and Dwayne Haskins a chance to show they can be the starter. The Steelers like Rudolph better than many fans seem to and also like Haskins' upside potential, as well.
But that doesn't mean they'll go into next season with only those two as options as a starter.
While I don't think the Steelers will get into a bidding war for any of the retread quarterbacks available this year, that doesn't mean they wouldn't necessarily be interested in a player who is going to likely be released down the road.
That could include Jimmy Garoppolo and Carson Wentz. Both are starter capable, though flawed. But much like Rudolph or Haskins, the team around them has to be good to win.
But Colbert specifically mentioned at his press conference Monday that the team also has to take into account quarterbacks who are not currently slated to be free agents who could become available later.
"We’ll sort through all of that over the next two months. We have preliminary ideas going into it," Colbert said. "Every step we learn something new. We come out of the college season, we go to the Senior Bowl, we’ll go to the combine, we’ll go to pro-days. And then we’ll look at what we did in free agency. That could change it. If you spend millions on a position, you may not draft that position even though it’s the best option prior to free agency. So, there are so many questions we’ll be answering to ourselves over the next two months that I really can’t nail it down at this point."
The idea will be to stay light on their feet regarding the most important position in football -- if not all sports. And obviously, as Colbert said, if they spend money to acquire a quarterback, they won't be in the market to add another.
One thing I don't see them doing is trading multiple first-round draft picks to acquire a high-priced veteran such as Aaron Rodgers. The cost of such a move in terms of draft capital, along with the cap hit involved, wouldn't make much sense for such a short-term fix.
The same goes for something such as trading for Wentz or Garoppolo. Wentz has a cap hit of $28 million, while Garoppolo's is $25 million. Acquiring one of those players would eat up all of the team's available salary cap space, though more could be created with restructures or releases.
Trading draft capital and adding that kind of salary would be outside the norm for the Steelers, who could simply wait until those players are released and then sign them to a more cap-friendly deal if that's the route they choose to take.
Either way, almost every move the Steelers make this offseason will be predicated on what happens at the quarterback position.
ON TO THE DRAFT
As things currently stand, there are two quarterbacks worthy of being selected in the first-round of this year's draft in my opinion, Liberty's Malik Willis and Pitt's Kenny Pickett. Mississippi's Matt Corral could work his way into that conversation with a strong performance at the NFL Scouting Combine next week, but that's how things currently stand.
Could there be another quarterback who sneaks into the first round? Sure. But it would be a reach.
If the Steelers add a quarterback in free agency, they'll be out of the rookie quarterback market this year -- at least early in the draft. They will add a developmental young quarterback later.
That would open things up a great deal in the draft.
If they add a quarterback in the draft, the priorities would then be adding a wide receiver, defensive tackle, inside linebacker and perhaps a cornerback. In later rounds, another developmental offensive lineman could be added.
In that case, the early portion of the draft could look like adding a defensive tackle such as Georgia's Jordan Davis in the first round, a cornerback such as Cincinnati's Coby Bryant or Roger McCreary of Auburn in the second round, and a wide receiver such as Skyy Moore of Western Michigan or Jalen Tolbert of South Alabama in the third round.
Obviously, the order of acquisitions at those positions could be switched, with a wide receiver such as Ohio State's Chris Olave or Arkansas' Treylon Burks being added in the first round and a defensive tackle and corner going in the second and third rounds, but you get the overall idea.
If the Steelers don't add a quarterback in free agency or via trade, that becomes a priority in the draft. Willis is the high-risk, high-reward player. He has the greatest upside of any quarterback in this draft. And he could be used as a weapon much the same way Lamar Jackson was as a rookie with the Ravens as he acclimates himself to the NFL game.
Pickett is the most pro-ready of the group, but his upside isn't as high. And he, like Willis, likely would start the regular season on the bench behind the winner of the Rudolph-Haskins training camp quarterback battle.
And taking a quarterback in the first round -- even if they don't need to move up in the first round to acquire one -- would push some of the other needs into later rounds.
But there will be much more clarity as to the pecking order of the quarterbacks after the combine.
THE BOTTOM LINE
As we saw last year, when the Steelers signed free agents such as Turner and linebacker Melvin Ingram following mini-camp, it figures to be a tumultuous offseason.
Some 40 percent of the league is currently slated to reach unrestricted free agency March 16 thanks to all of the one-year contracts that were signed last year when the salary cap went down instead of up because of the 2020 COVID-19 season.
That could lead to a lot of movement. It also could lead to a buyer's market when it comes to free agency. And there also are 14 teams that are either currently over the projected salary cap of $208.2 million or have less than $10 million available.
Those teams will be trimming fat and making adjustments to get under the cap.
The Steelers, unlike last season, aren't in a situation where they need to release any players to get under the cap. For once, they're in a position to be buyers, rather than sellers, when it comes to free agency.
"I think we can comfortably say that we will have more salary cap room this year than we've had," Colbert said. "I can't even remember when we've had any excess room but we're anticipating having more room going into this process."
That room in free agency and the fact free agency comes before the draft will ultimately affect what the team does there.
