With just one game remaining in the Penguins' regular-season schedule, the list of their possible first-round opponents has been narrowed to two teams.
The Penguins will either finish the season as the No. 3 seed in the Metropolitan Division and face the Rangers in the first round, or they will be the second wildcard team and face the Panthers in the first round.
The Rangers are locked into the No. 2 seed after the Hurricanes clinched the top seed in the Metropolitan Division, and will play whichever team finished as the No. 3 seed in the division. The Panthers have clinched the top seed in the Eastern Conference and will face the lesser of the two wildcard teams in the conference.
As it currently stands, the Penguins would play the Rangers in the first round.
The Penguins still sit third in the Metropolitan Division despite Tuesday's 5-1 loss to the Oilers, because the Capitals' 4-1 loss to the Islanders on Tuesday kept Washington at 100 points, in the second wildcard spot behind the Bruins.
After the Bruins' 4-2 win over the Panthers on Tuesday, it's no longer possible for the Penguins to surpass the Bruins in points. The Penguins, with 101 points in the standings, can only have a maximum of 103 points if they beat the Blue Jackets at home on Friday in the regular-season finale. The Bruins' win on Tuesday gave them 105 points in the standings and a hold on the top wildcard spot in the Eastern Conference. If the Penguins are surpassed by the Capitals and slip into a wildcard spot, they will be the second wildcard team and have to face the Panthers.
The Penguins aren't in total control of their own destiny.
The Capitals have two games remaining on the schedule, back-to-back road games against the Islanders and Rangers on Thursday and Friday. If they win both of those games, they will surpass the Penguins in points regardless of if the Penguins win Friday's game against the Blue Jackets, and the Penguins will play the Panthers in the first round. If the Capitals split their remaining two games, the Penguins must get at least a point on Friday in order to hold onto the third seed in the division and face the Rangers.
Between the Panthers and the Rangers, the Penguins had the better results in the regular season against the Panthers.
The Penguins went 1-3 in the regular-season series with the Rangers: A 1-0 win in February, and losses by margins of 5-1, 3-2, and 3-0 last month.
The Penguins went 1-1-1 in their three games against the Panthers in the regular season: A 5-4 overtime loss in the second game of the season, a 3-2 shootout win in November, and a 4-3 loss last month.
The Penguins are 4-5-1 in their last 10 games and are coming off of two disappointing losses in Tuesday's loss to the Oilers and Sunday's 4-1 loss to the depleted Flyers. Their No. 1 goaltender in Tristan Jarry remains sidelined on a week-to-week basis. Their two potential opponents are staying hot as the playoffs near, with the Rangers going 7-3 in their last 10 games, and the Panthers going 8-2 in their last 10. The Penguins are destined to run into one of the top goaltenders in the league this season, whether it be New York's Igor Shesterkin or Florida's Sergei Bobrovsky.
It's inevitable that the Penguins will be the underdog in their first-round series, regardless of which opponent they end up drawing. Still, doubt hasn't begun to creep into the Penguins' locker room as the regular season nears an end.
"We know we're a good team," Kasperi Kapanen said Tuesday. "Good teams have bad games, and today was one of those. I mean, it's not an excuse, but we've still got one more game. We've got to play well there and get some confidence going. But we know we're a good group and hopefully we can go far this year."
Marcus Pettersson said that the key to getting that confidence going is to just "play toward it" on Friday.
"Confidence is not going to just come all of a sudden," Pettersson said. "I think when you put a couple of shifts together in a game, you gain momentum, you gain confidence that way. I think we've got to do that in the last game and really find it, because we know we have it in the room. We have a good enough team."
They still believe they have a team that can make a run, even with an inevitable tough first-round matchup ahead.
"The playoffs this year, the East is really competitive." Pettersson said. "I feel like every team can beat every team, so you've got to play towards that. You've got to play hard, play for each other, play with some enthusiasm. It's not going to come by itself, so we've got to really find it in the last game."