Mike's Beer Bar War Room: Pickett's in sweet spot to succeed with Steelers

What are Kenny Pickett's strengths and weaknesses? 

And what's the Steelers' likely plan for him?

Let’s start with the concerns:

• While many analysts considered Pickett the most 'NFL-ready' of all the quarterbacks taken in this year's NFL Draft, the fact is no incoming rookie quarterback is NFL-ready. 'NFL-ready' is a myth. 

• There's this issue with Pickett’s hand size. We'll see if it's a problem or not. 

Pickett had more than his share of fumbles at the college level -- 26 total -- and in very limited sample sizes in a game last year against North Carolina, and on a very rainy day in Mobile, Ala., at the Senior Bowl, the weather gave Pickett some problems. Of course, the NFL season goes much later into the year than the college football year. 

Pickett surely won’t be able to pump-fake like Ben Roethlisberger and he'll have to be overly cognizant of keeping two hands on the ball in the pocket in traffic, but the gloves NFL players wear now are, frankly, quite amazing and will help Pickett’s cause in this regard a great deal. He wears a glove on both hands. Predicting if hand size will negatively affect Pickett’s career at the next level isn’t easy to do, but you certainly would prefer he had more surface area on the football.

• Pickett has a very good football mind and is clearly a student of the game with great experience in a system that translates well to the NFL. He is excellent at recognizing pressure and adapting accordingly. But one worry with Pickett is dealing with pass-rush pressure he doesn’t expect pre-snap and, from there, how he adjusts. In this capacity regarding an unsuspecting pass rush, Pickett isn’t a great improvisational player at this point and can get skittish. 

But don’t misconstrue that as Pickett not having second-reaction abilities overall. In each of Pickett’s final four seasons in college, his average time to throw went up. Last season at Pitt, the ball came out on average in 3.19 seconds. Only five quarterbacks in the NCAA held the ball longer on average. That's in extremely stark contrast to how Roethlisberger played of late. Roethlisberger got the ball out of his hands quicker than any qualifying quarterback last year, the year before, and also in 2018. And remember, Roethlisberger was out of action in 2019. Roethlisberger’s average depth of target (ADOT) was also extremely low during that stretch and only one quarterback last year, Jared Goff, had a lower ADOT. 

Obviously, Pickett was very successful with his style of play last year, but this begs the question: Will the Steelers ask him to get the ball out quicker, or do they want to push the ball down the field more than they have in recent seasons? 

The answer is most likely both, and surely the Steelers want to attack the middle of the field more regularly at the second and third levels. Holding the ball for 3.19 seconds in the NFL is an eternity.

For a frame of reference, only three quarterbacks averaged three seconds or longer, with Jalen Hurts holding the ball longer than any other NFL quarterback last year. Hurts got the ball out in 3.12 seconds in 2021. 

Pickett will have to speed up his process in the NFL in order to succeed. That is the case with almost every highly drafted quarterback, though. The NFL just moves so much faster, and he won’t have the luxury of having Biletnikoff Award winner Jordan Addison working against college cover men for over three seconds going forward. But also expect the Steelers' offensive scheme to be designed to push the football down the field much more with Roethlisberger now retired. Pickett will hold it longer than Roethlisberger. 

The NFL is all about creating and prohibiting explosive plays. And the 2021 Steelers' offense was far too easy to play against and didn’t challenge defenses nearly enough. Pickett’s deep passing numbers last year were spectacular. Not only did Pickett’s completion percentage rise by nearly 6% from 2020 to 2021, but his yards per attempt went from 7.2 to 8.6 while throwing 42 touchdowns against just seven interceptions last year:

• Next question, then: In a perfect world, what is Matt Canada’s vision for Pittsburgh’s offense and what do they ideally want from the quarterback in his offense?

Expect the Steelers' offense to look drastically different going forward no matter who is behind center. 

Canada’s bread and butter is the use of deception and misdirection. The whole key to that is putting defensive players in conflict for a split-second. A split-second in this league is an eternity. 

Canada will use a heavy dose of unbalanced lines, unorthodox formations, pre-snap motion and play-action. The Steelers have been unbelievably light in their usage of play-action dating back a decade. Play-action is one of the greatest advantages that offenses have at their disposal in today’s NFL, and the Steelers used it less than anyone. That will change drastically. 

While Pickett has very small hands by NFL quarterback standards, he has excellent ball skills and that's imperative in his new offense. Expect to see a plethora of different ball fakes and a variety of run action and play action concepts freeze linebackers to help either Pickett or Mitch Trubisky. 

It will be a staple of this offense going forward, without question, along with some degree of quarterback mobility, another strength to Pickett’s game. Pickett has exceptional accuracy on the move, something Canada will ask often from the rookie with designed quarterback movement. And from a testing standpoint, Pickett’s 10-foot, 1-inch broad jump was in the 90th percentage amongst quarterback and his 4.73/40-yard dash was more than respectable. He has light feet coupled with some athletic twitch:

While he must speed up his processing, Pickett is also probably the best progression reader in this draft class. He enters the league with a great ability to go from option one to two to three exactly as the play is drawn up. This is something that most of his rookie counterparts, Malik Willis in particular, really need to work on. And that great skill will endear Pickett to his new coaching staff. Coaches spend countless hours designing plays and are generally excellent at what they do. Sharp and precise progression reading is huge for success in the NFL. 

Pickett marries his feet and eyes very well without getting stuck in the pocket. His pocket efficiency is very advanced, and Pitt’s offense demonstrated more NFL concepts that most college systems. 

There might not be a quarterback skill more important to success than accuracy. Pickett is the most accurate quarterback entering the NFL this year. By “accuracy,” we aren’t just talking about completion percentage. It's ball placement, as well as being able to change the trajectory of throws. Pickett throws his receivers open and shows plus-accuracy at all levels of the field. All quarterbacks in the league can hit the door. But great ones hit the doorknob. The elite ones throw it through the keyhole. 

Pickett’s timing and anticipation are also advanced for a rookie which goes hand in hand with his accuracy. While Pickett doesn’t have a cannon for an arm, throwing with anticipation makes up for that. Quarterbacks that throw with great accuracy and anticipation last in the NFL and are incredibly difficult to defend. Pickett throws a very catchable ball and can do so from different platforms. And it comes out on time. 

• A massive component to this entire equation doesn’t necessarily concern Pickett’s abilities as a player, but rather very simple economics. A massive advantage in this league is having a quality starting quarterback on a rookie contract. 

Whether Pickett turns into a quality starting quarterback remains to be seen, but the Steelers have him cost controlled for the next five years if they so choose. 

What does this mean for an NFL franchise? 

Well, the Steelers are now in a tremendous position to keep their own players as well as going outside the organization to pluck key pieces from other teams in free agency. Even with Roethlisberger’s contract, the Steelers didn’t lose many stars that they wanted to keep, but with a very inexpensive quarterback room, the Steelers will keep home-grown talent they want to keep but just couldn’t in recent years. 

The two best examples of this are Javon Hargrave and Matt Feiler. Hargrave and Feiler aren’t superstars, but the Steelers developed them into high-quality contributors only to see them leave town. Just imagine the team building ripple effect -- as well as the play on the field -- if the Steelers were able to keep Hargrave in the middle of their defensive line as well as Feiler at guard or right tackle at a market price contract in the prime of their careers. 

By all accounts, Pickett is a tremendous leader and worker. His toughness is well documented, and you see it on the field. Many don’t realize Pickett played with a surgically repaired ankle during the 2020 season, or maybe he would have broken out sooner. He only missed two games after an October ankle surgery in 2020. Pickett's a three-time captain who left Pitt with all the program's passing records and enters the league with rare experience and maturity. 

As important to any aspect of drafting Pickett is familiarity. Every team in the league has the same access of tape to watch. They all are in attendance at the NFL Scouting Combine for medical evaluations and athletic testing numbers. But gathering invaluable information about a player is something that isn’t equal in all 32 buildings and can make or break a player’s transition to the NFL. 

No team had better pre-draft intel on a player in this entire class than the Steelers had on Pickett. That, coupled with Pickett not having to adjust to a new city and environment, is a rare advantage and one that should instill a great bit of confidence in Steelers fans going forward. 

This is an excellent scenario for Pickett to succeed.