The Penguins' signing of Bryan Rust to a six-year extension was the first big piece to the puzzle that is the Penguins' offseason.
After signing Rust, the Penguins now have nine forwards (including Drew O'Connor and Radim Zohorna), six defenseman, and one goaltender under contract and expected to be at the NHL level for next season.
To fill in those remaining holes, the Penguins have $23,208,158 in cap space with which to work. That's after taking into account the $59,291,842 in current cap hits, plus the $1,916,667 in dead cap space from the buyout of former defenseman Jack Johnson.
Let's take a look at who the Penguins' remaining restricted and unrestricted free agents are, and what type of contract they might command if they sign an extension.
For contract predictions, we'll use the projection model from advanced stats site Evolving Hockey, which offers contract projections each summer with a fair degree of accuracy. Last offseason, the model's predictions compared to the actual contracts signed carried a coefficient of determination of .8536, meaning that the model's projections worked with about 85 percent accuracy.
Here's where things stand for the Penguins.
FORWARDS
Rickard Rakell
Age: 29
Status: UFA
2021-22 stats: 19 games, 4 goals, 9 assists (Pittsburgh), 51 games, 16 goals, 12 assists (Anaheim)
Previous cap hit: $3,789,444
Average projected term: 5.3 years
Average projected cap hit: $5,746,000
Rakell is surely due for a raise on his previous deal, which was signed way back in 2016. Since then he's turned into a regular in the top-six, someone who could be on a team's first line. The $5-6 million range seems fair for him.
Given the Penguins' tight cap situation, there might not be enough space left to bring back Rakell. Rakell did express interest over potentially returning at the Penguins' cleanout day that seemed genuine.
The Penguins might be able to re-sign Rakell if they shed salary elsewhere by moving out a defensemen. If they were able to move out someone like Marcus Pettersson and his $4,025,175 cap hit and fill that void with a cheaper replacement like P.O Joseph, that money might be able to go toward a potential Rakell raise.
Kasperi Kapanen
Age: 25
Status: RFA
2021-22 stats: 79 games, 11 goals, 21 assists
Previous cap hit: $3,200,000
Average projected term: 3.2 years
Average projected cap hit: $3,887,000
The projection model here might be skewed by Kapanen's 2020-21 production, a season in which he put up 11 goals and 19 assists in 40 games. After producing nearly the same amount of points in just about double the games, it'd be stating the obvious in saying that Kapanen had an underwhelming season. He'd likely be able to be re-signed for much lower than the projection, perhaps under $3 million.
As I previously wrote, a qualifying offer to Kapanen would have to be in the $840,000-$1 million range, though he'd likely command more if he elected arbitration. If Kapanen can be brought back on an affordable deal, it's worth the gamble that he returns to the form he showed in the 2020-21 season. Kapanen expressed interest in returning on cleanout day, and Ron Hextall spoke in his season-ending media availability like he expects Kapanen to be back.
"There’s more there for Kappy," Hextall said. "He had an off year. We certainly expect more from him next year."
Evgeni Malkin
Age: 35
Status: UFA
2021-22 stats: 41 games, 20 goals, 22 assists
Previous cap hit: $9,500,000
Average projected term: 2.7 years
Average projected cap hit: $5,664,000
The three-year term here seems likely for Malkin, especially given that a three-year extension would keep Malkin in Pittsburgh through the remainder of Sidney Crosby's current deal. This is another example of the model perhaps being skewed, likely by Malkin playing in so few games over the last three seasons due to injuries.
Malkin joked earlier in the season that he's a "pretty rich guy," and isn't so concerned with the salary in his potential extension, but he did clarify on cleanout day that him being a "rich guy" doesn't mean he'd take a $1 million contract.
"I know my price. My agent knows my price. I think the team knows my price," he said. "Money's not a big deal, but I have family, I have parents, I want a good future for them."
Somewhere around $7 million per year seems reasonable for Malkin on a three-year contract. He could always surprise everyone like Rust did and take a significant hometown discount to stay, of course.
Evan Rodrigues
Age: 28
Status: UFA
2021-22 stats: 82 games, 19 goals, 24 assists
Previous cap hit: $1,000,000
Average projected term: 4 years
Average projected cap hit: $3,543,000
Rodrigues is probably the toughest one to project. A season with 43 points in 82 games is pretty impressive on the surface, until you look at the breakdown of when those points were scored. Rodrigues scored 15 goals and 15 assists in his first 33 games, then just four goals and nine assists in his last 49 games. Rodrigues seemed poised to receive a significant raise based off of his first half of the season, but that second-half complete drop off could really drive down his market value.
Rodrigues had a career year regardless and is surely due for some sort of raise on his previous $1 million contract. Just how much his tale of two seasons will impact his value remains to be seen.
Danton Heinen
Age: 26
Status: RFA
2021-22 stats: 76 games, 18 goals, 15 assists
Previous cap hit: $1,100,000
Average projected term: 3 years
Average projected cap hit: $2,843,000
The Penguins got Heinen as a UFA because the Ducks declined to give him a qualifying offer last season, but because players do not achieve full unrestricted status until they reach 27 years old or play seven NHL seasons (whichever comes first), Heinen remains a restricted free agent for the Penguins this year.
Heinen took a pretty big paycut last offseason off of his previous deal that carried a $2.8 million cap hit, a contract that was awarded in arbitration. The offensive success Heinen saw this year was more akin to his production in his first two seasons in Boston that led to him signing that $2.8 million deal. The Penguins might not be able to afford that kind of a raise for Heinen, and with Heinen having arbitration rights, qualifying him might be risky.
Brian Boyle
Age: 37
Status: UFA
2021-22 stats: 66 games, 11 goals, 10 assists
Previous cap hit: $750,000
Average projected term: 1.8 years
Average projected cap hit: $1,449,000
Boyle was a great story last year, earning a contract out of camp after not playing the previous season, and defying most preseason expectations for him.
With Boyle being 37 and coming off of offseason knee surgery, I just don't see Boyle being back. This is a spot that should go to O'Connor next season, especially after O'Connor's growth when it comes to penalty-killing this season. He's ready.
DEFENSEMEN
Kris Letang
Age: 35
Status: UFA
2021-22 stats: 78 games, 10 goals, 58 assists
Previous cap hit: $7,250,000
Average projected term: 4.2 years
Average projected cap hit: $9,155,000
Letang did say on cleanout day that he sees himself playing "another four or five years, easily." As with Malkin, a three-year deal just seems more likely here, because that would take them both to the end of Crosby's current contract.
Letang is coming off of one of the best seasons of his career, if not the best year of his career. It's not unreasonable to expect him to receive a raise on his previous deal, and something close to $9 million seems likely given what No. 1 defensemen go for in free agency these days. Here is a list of the highest-paid defensemen still under contract around the league, and Letang deserves to be right up there with those defensemen making around $9 million, unless he elects to take a hometown discount to stay.
Nathan Beaulieu
Age: 29
Status: UFA
2021-22 stats: 24 games, 4 assists (Winnipeg)
Previous cap hit: $1,250,000
Average projected term: 1.6 years
Average projected cap hit: $813,400
I just don't see a need for Beaulieu. They got him in a trade for a conditional seventh-round pick, conditions that weren't met because the Penguins didn't reach the Stanley Cup Final and Beaulieu didn't play in half of the games. He didn't play in any of them. The Penguins got him for free, and he just served as insurance for the brief playoff run.
Letang is the only other free agent defensemen. If he's brought back, that's seven defensemen on the roster. If a defensemen is moved out in a trade, I'd rather see Joseph take that open spot than Beaulieu. Beaulieu will likely walk in free agency.
GOALTENDERS
Casey DeSmith
Age: 30
Status: UFA
2021-22 stats: 26 games, 2.79 GAA, .914 SV%
Previous cap hit: $1,250,000
Average projected term: 2.4 years
Average projected cap hit: $2,537,000
There are certainly some intriguing names on the list of free agent goaltenders this season, including some veterans like Marc-Andre Fleury, Braden Holtby, Thomas Greiss and Jaroslav Halak.
An upgrade to the backup goaltending position would be nice. Tristan Jarry shouldered a heavy workload last season, playing in 58 games before suffering a broken foot near the end of the season. An upgrade at backup goaltender would lessen Jarry's workload, and perhaps allow him to maintain a stronger level of play deeper into the season. But with the Penguins' already tight cap situation and the number of holes to fill in other areas of the roster, this isn't an area in which the Penguins can really afford to spend much.
DeSmith had a tough start to the year, but finished strong in the second half of the season. If he is brought back and plays the way he did after mid-January last season, that might be all the Penguins need as far as backup goaltending goes. Still, it'd be worth kicking the tires on some of the other names out there.
FREE AGENTS IN THE SYSTEM
Forwards: Anthony Angello (UFA), Michael Chaput (UFA), Alex Nylander (RFA), Kasper Bjorkqvist (RFA), Justin Almeida (RFA), Jordy Bellerive (RFA), Jan Drozg (RFA)
Defensemen: P.O Joseph (RFA), Niclas Almari (RFA), Will Reilly (RFA), Cam Lee (RFA) Juuso Riikola (UFA)
Goaltenders: Louis Domingue (UFA), Alex D'Orio (RFA)
Of the above group, I'd at least expect Nylander, Bjorkqvist, Bellerive, Joseph, Reilly, and Lee to be back. The Penguins still technically hold Riikola's rights until July 12, but he has already signed overseas in Sweden for next season.