Kovacevic: Predicting the Steelers' plunge in 2022 is vapid beyond belief

Turns out the Steelers will have the No. 6 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft.

Or so I've read on ESPN, where some concoction of theirs called the 'Football Power Index' has forecast, as of a few days ago, that everyone's favorite franchise will finish the coming season. No records are given, but that'd mean they'll win no more than five games, as the Panthers did to get the most recent No. 6 pick.

That's it. A handful of wins. And a dozen losses.

Scary stuff, huh?

I was captivated, so I kept reading.

From Seth Walder: 'Our FPI model considers the T.J. Watt-led Steelers defense to be the fifth-best in the league, but a good defense can take you only so far. The game swings on offense, and none of the options at quarterback -- Mitch Trubisky, Kenny Pickett or Mason Rudolph -- are likely to be a high performer in 2022. ESPN's FPI considers the first two to be the better choices and roughly equivalent in the short term.'

Uh-huh. It's all on the quarterback. Got it.

So, to be clear, according to this 'Football Power Index,' the Steelers will improve defensively -- since they ranked ninth in total defense last season, and a rise to fifth is, you know, a rise -- but they'll simultaneously plunge in the overall standings because their offense will be ... worse than awful?

Oh, my, this is fascinating.

The Steelers ranked 21st in total offense, averaging 315.4 yards per game, and 21st in scoring offense, averaging 21.2 points per game. Within that, they ranked 15th in passing offense, 28th in rushing offense, and couldn't come close to generating regular splash, ranking 28th in plays that produced 20-plus yards, with a pathetic total of 41.

Which is to say, again, they were awful. At almost everything.

And I'm to believe they'll be worse in 2022?

Wait, check that ... that they'll be so much worse in 2022 to offset a perceived improvement on defense and, in turn, to fall from 9-7-1 and a playoff berth to a league doormat?

Come on.

Here's the thing: That ESPN article isn't isolated. A broader survey of all of the network's writers averaged out to having the Steelers at 7.5 wins. All of the rest I surveyed -- CBS, Yahoo!, USA Today, Bleacher Report, and I threw in Warren Sharp's Football Analysis just to have a solo act -- averaged out to 7.5, as well. And not one had them higher than eight wins.

For that matter, the Las Vegas oddsmakers currently have them at 7.5. And those, of course, are set by the bettors themselves, which means there's a bunch of real money being put down on the Steelers to stink in a way they haven't in decades.

Want to know what I think?

Well, I can't put it any better than Dan Moore, this allegedly awful team's starting left tackle, worded it in a good talk we had at minicamp last week: "I'm excited!"

But I'm guessing that won't change a single mind, so I'll type out the whole quote.

"I'm excited about what we've got here, the whole group, the chance to be part of something that feels kinda new, our own thing," Moore proceeded. "I know there are some skeptics out there, and we're cool with that. We know who we've got. We know what we've got. I'm telling you, I can't wait to get going."

OK, so that won't do it, either. But it's a sweet spot for me to build a case for why it's so very vapid to envision doom for these Steelers based on -- if I'm being blunt here -- people looking at little more than Ben Roethlisberger being here one year, gone the next. Because that's all this is. And anytime anyone attempts to flesh out some justification, it reads a lot like the drivel above.

Here's a handful of hard counters:

1. Ben was big-time limited. 

That's not a criticism. It's cold reality for a 38-year-old quarterback. He couldn't budge from the pocket. He wouldn't handle the ball for more than a millisecond, for legit fear of his life behind maybe the league's leakiest line. For the same reason, he either couldn't or wouldn't look downfield or over the middle. And as a result, opponents stacked their entire roster inside the box to prevent the run.

I don't need to bury Ben. We all saw it.

2. Modern offense matters.

I'm not about to make a fool of myself and predict that Mitch Trubisky -- or Mason Rudolph or Kenny Pickett -- will instantly out-perform even that version of Ben. Limited as he was, he still engineered a fourth-quarter comeback in seven of the Steelers' nine wins, a mindblowing figure in light of the offense's overall lack of production. Somehow, he'd find a way. And most of it really was him.

Put it this way: It's not a coincidence that Matt Canada, in his meeting with reporters at minicamp last week, emphasized "leadership" when discussing the presumed quarterback competition. Mike Tomlin and Mike Sullivan brought it up, too, in similar contexts, not least of which was what kind of poise the athlete would show "late in games or inside the 20," as Sullivan described it.

But, again without burying Ben, let's not pretend he was running a modern NFL offense. Canada's got no more vocal critic than the guy at this keyboard, and I'll still give a mulligan in this regard. Everything we've seen or heard about his offense ... almost none of it was shown in 2021, and one would think there's some reason Tomlin really, really likes him. Which he does.

If Trubisky's the starter, as now seems universally accepted, he'll be able to add more elements to the offense. Vital elements.

3. The line won't be a catastrophe.

I don't know if it'll be even league-average, but I do know that ponying up tens of millions of dollars for free agents James Daniels and Mason Cole, plus keeping Chuks Okorafor, plus another year of maturation for Moore and Kevin Dotson/Kendrick Green, won't result in a backward step. They'll be better, maybe a lot better.

Anyone who thinks that won't matter more than any other facet ... welcome to football.

4. Najee Harris, second year.

Dude's legs are redwoods now. He's entering the sophomore season Tomlin emphasizes with everyone, not without cause. He's got a better line, maybe a lot better. He'll have -- gasp! -- play-action to help out. And he already made the Pro Bowl with 1,200 rushing yards as a rookie.

Help me out in explaining how this'll be a regression. Because it'd have to be for the Steelers, in general, to plummet.

5. The AFC North is ... what?

The Bengals reached the Super Bowl. Huzzah for them. They're the division favorites, as they should be. But as the Steelers and Ravens showed for nearly 20 years of back-and-forth while the Bengals shared the basement with the Browns, nothing's set in stone here.

The Ravens have depth galore on defense, but Lamar Jackson's aura of invincibility ended a couple years ago and, besides, I'm not sure there's a wide receiver left on the Baltimore roster. 

And the Browns are on the verge of having their new franchise quarterback suspended for a year, two years, even longer. Good luck with all that.

As for the whole slate of games: In 2021, the Steelers had the NFL's most difficult strength-of-schedule and still went 9-7-1. This year, they've got the third-easiest strength-of-schedule.

And notice that I didn't even squeeze into my handful of counters a deeper group of wide receivers, the second year of Pat Freiermuth, an additional year of healing for Devin Bush's knee, the return of Tyson Alualu, Brian Flores' added brain power, or even the super-convenient Tomlin never having had a losing season.

Whatever. Wait till they're all sprinting out of the tunnel at Paul Brown Stadium, when it'll matter.

• My 90 ticks with Miles Boykin:

Pretty cool, huh?

• Have I mentioned how wonderful it is to be back in locker rooms and actually get to know these guys again?

• Trubisky's the QB. And he should be the QB in 2022.

It was a breeze reading through Sullivan's words when I asked him about Trubisky's play-action proficiency at minicamp: "The timing is so important. Is it going to be seven steps or eight steps, depending upon which foot you open with? Is it going to be four or five? Certain things are gonna be on a plant. And he really has a great feel. He does an excellent job. ... And it's really a valuable tool, to be able to show the other guys."

Play-action's going to mean a ton to this offense. One quarterback's ready to run it.

Open, shut.

• Ever wonder how the Steelers' analytics department stacks up with the rest of the NFL?

This is hardly definitive -- it's a simple head count -- but maybe it's telling:

It'll be interesting to see if Omar Khan's capable of moving Tomlin more in that direction. I know this: He won't move without a push.

• We're always looking for villains when something happens that we don't like, even if none exist.

Well, none exist in how Stephon Tuitt's situation was handled by the team or the athlete. It makes zero difference if/when management knew he'd retire because, one, the top defensive pick in the draft, DeMarvin Leal, was made at Tuitt's position, anyway, and because, two, no comparable free-agent pursuit could've been made without Tuitt's cap space being fully freed up. And the latter couldn't have come before June 1.

A tragedy occurred. A family man reacted by putting family first. A family-oriented team reacted by putting a member of their family first. And along the way, no football damage was done.

• That said, here's hoping Khan isn't content with the defensive line he's got. Even if sub-packages continue to limit the numbers on the field to two at a time, there'll always be a need for the base 3-4. I trust Alualu to be able to slide to the end -- he can do anything -- and for Montravius Adams to plug the middle. But Alualu's 35, Cam Heyward's 33, and hoping that they stay healthy at that age isn't a plan.

The money's there. It's still best applied on the defensive line. Use it, via free agency or trade.

• One of many neat benefits to our expanded coverage of the Steelers this summer is having our multimedia ace, Eddie Provident, filming and producing good work like this at minicamp:

• I'm paying Minkah Fitzpatrick. I'm not paying Diontae Johnson.

The data on Johnson doesn't lie -- tied for fifth in the NFL with 107 catches in 2021, 10th in receiving yards with 1,161 -- but neither do the now-recurring late-season fades: In the Steelers' final four regular-season games, when he was needed most in the push to make the playoffs, he averaged 6.5 catches per game for an average of 42.8 yards, a total of two touchdowns and not a single play longer than 18 yards. And in the playoff game at Kansas City, he had five catches -- despite twice as many targets -- for 34 yards.

Sorry, but that ain't No. 1 material.

Comparing anyone to Antonio Brown can be crazy, but AB rose up to the biggest challenges. Johnson went MIA for a month, just as he did in 2020.

Don't get me wrong: I like the player. I'd keep him at a reasonable price. But Minkah's in an entirely different discussion.

• George Pickens might make us all forget everyone else before long, anyway. A superlative, diverse and tough-as-nails talent.

• Much as I'm behind Minkah being paid, here's hoping that doesn't disintegrate into a camp-long circus. Already, he's stayed to the side through the offseason workouts, as T.J. did at Heinz Field last summer, maybe setting the precedent for a sequel in Latrobe. 

Staying respectful here, Minkah's not T.J., and he shouldn't be treated as such. Beyond that, Minkah's the loudest voice in that secondary -- a somewhat restructured secondary, at that -- and it'd be a bigger challenge to progress through a camp without that presence than that of an edge rusher.

• Six weeks to Saint Vincent.

Yeah, Latrobe again. Has a sweet sound to it, huh?

Almost as sweet as all that cash I'd collect on taking the over on 7.5 wins.