It will be several years down the line at the earliest, but the Penguins' first-round draft choice, Owen Pickering, has the potential to become a No. 3 or 4 defenseman as a steadying defensive presence with the instincts to chip in offensively.
Size is always coveted on the blue line. That holds true ten times over when said size possesses any sort of mobility.
Currently, Pickering's skating is still a work in progress, but at 6-foot-4 and 181 pounds, he gets around very well for his size:
His ability to cut and change direction -- especially with the puck on his stick -- immediately jumps out. That skill is invaluable when facing forechecking pressure in your own zone. This goes hand-in-hand with the smarts necessary to scan the ice and determine whether a pass or skating the puck is the best option, both of which he does well. According to the manual tracking of Mitch Brown from Elite Prospects, Pickering was one of the WHL's best defensemen at successfully exiting the defensive zone with possession last season.
There will be endless adjustments in regard to his skating as he presumably grows another inch or two and puts on 20 more pounds. Pickering grew nine inches in just three years, so it's understandable that he's still going through the comfortability curve with his new frame.
Like I said, he gets around well for his size, but there are some fluidity issues within his skating that are mainly present when pivoting. He also has a tendency to get knocked off balance when the puck handcuffs him in tight spaces. It's unlikely these things disappear from his game entirely, though they can be cleaned up and managed:
Last season Pickering led Swift Current Broncos defensemen in scoring with nine goals and 33 points in 62 games. Projecting to the NHL, the majority of his offensive impact will be felt in his ability to transition the puck up ice. It would be tough for any defenseman of his stature to be a dynamo in the offensive zone, though his anticipation skills are apparent every time he sneaks away from the point and into open ice, something he did more and more as last season wore on.
Unlike many bigger defensemen, Pickering doesn't immediately double-back to his station when he finds himself below the faceoff dots in the offensive zone. He's cognizant of not jumping up with reckless abandon, but when he does, he trusts his teammates to properly shift and cover for him as he assumes their role up front temporarily:
With three Finland defenders lock-eyed on the puck as one of his forwards swung high, Pickering identified a soft pocket of open ice and took it. The puck never made it his way, but if he keeps doing that, it will. Bonus points for getting in on the forecheck.
Really, I don't know that I've seen a big defenseman who likes to hang around the net in the offensive zone as much as he does:
Most of the occasions in which he ends up at the net stem from in-zone play. He isn't opposed to jumping in off the rush, but his lack of explosiveness can keep him from doing it regularly. He's no stranger to leading the rush, either, though he'd be better served to be more aggressive with his center-lane drive after dishing the puck laterally upon entering the zone.
Here he is stopping at the front of the net off the rush and banging home the garbage:
Pickering has an above-average shot for a defenseman but he doesn't utilize it a ton. What's more intriguing are the fundamentals behind it, which further speaks to his hockey smarts.
Many players have a poor habit of over-stickhandling whether it be skating with the puck, right before passing or right before shooting. It seems inconsequential, but it's all the time needed for a defender to get an extra step on you or for a goalie to square up. I was floored by this goal from Pickering in which he caught a pass in an optimal position out to his side while attacking downhill as he blistered the puck to the back of the net. Not one stickhandle. Just catch and release:
Despite consistent on-the-mark stretch passes in transition, Pickering's offensive-zone passing is unspectacular. I wouldn't call it a weakness -- he makes up for it with knowing where to put his passes -- he just won't be lighting up the primary assist column. There is an avenue for this to improve if he's able to sync the movement throughout his body.
Ultimately, Pickering is going to make a living off his defense. Specifically his rush defense.
Just as he was one of the best defenders in the WHL at exiting his zone, he was also one of the best defenders in the WHL at denying entry to his zone. His giant range of motion and skating ability are the perfect combination to stop attackers dead in their tracks:
One second an attacker has just enough room to operate and, in an instant, Pickering's in their face and the space has vanished. His lanky legs cover quite a bit of ground in a single stride, then there's several feet of his extended arm plus the ground covered by his stick and there's simply nowhere to go.
He's at his best when his intuition takes over. He frequently displays a high-end ability to read the play developing in front of him before it happens. He's a downright lethal defender when leveraging it with his physical tools.
Even if he gets backed into his zone defending the rush, a strong edge to stop quickly and lunge at the carrier is often enough to prevent anything substantial from transpiring for the opposition:
At times, Pickering has a rather loose gap defending the neutral zone, but that's only so he can swarm the carrier as they reach the blue line. From the blue line back, his gap control is impeccable. All made possible by his size and complemented by his skating.
Here he is defending a rush one-on-one. Make note of how he protected the middle of the ice with his stick while methodically angling the carrier and closing separation until they were no longer a threat:
Despite his height, Pickering isn't overly physical. He doesn't throw thundering hits and isn't a menace defending his own net, although he does a good job of tying up net-front foes. Again, he needs more time to mature physically, but don't expect him to ever develop into a contact-heavy player.
Pickering was given a 47% chance of playing 200+ NHL games and a 6% chance of becoming a star producer (0.45 career points per game), per Hockey Prospecting. These models are built upon relative and adjusted point production, so they are sure to underrate players who are more defensive-minded or contribute in ways other than getting on the scoresheet. Still, historically, players with similar pre-draft production histories were essentially a coin flip to become full-time NHLers.
Pickering absolutely has the skill set and hockey intelligence to be an impactful player in the NHL, but he is and will continue to be a project for the next several years.
At his absolute ceiling, Pickering can be in the top quarter of the league on the defensive side with average or slightly above-average offensive impacts.