Mike's Beer Bar War Room: What's Trubisky bringing in his bag?

LATROBE, Pa. -- When NFL free agency opened, the Steelers wasted no time in signing Mitch Trubisky to a two-year, $14.285 million contract with a signing bonus of $5.25 million being all that's guaranteed money, a nice bump up from the $2.5 million he made in Buffalo last year.

And folks, even if that still isn’t NFL starting quarterback money, he's going to be the starter here.

It's important to know, too, that the Steelers could cut him after this season with very little negative ramifications. And that, if Trubisky succeeds, they'll have him for another year with a base salary of $8 million and a 2023 cap hit of just $10.625 million. For the 2022 cap, the Steelers are 25th in the league in overall quarterback spending, so this is a low risk move, something that has absolutely been a huge trend with their offseason free agent spending. Scouting quarterbacks is far from a perfect science and, with the combination of Trubisky and Kenny Pickett, the Steelers are taking two bites at the quarterback apple, neither especially expensive.

But what are the Steelers getting for their money?

Trubisky will turn 28 years old in August. He has played five seasons in the NFL after being drafted with the No. 2 overall selection in the 2017 NFL Draft with mixed results.

Before that, he grew up in Mentor, Ohio, which is less than a three-hour drive from Pittsburgh. He won Ohio’s Mr. Football Award and then went on to the University of North Carolina, where he redshirted as a true freshman. Over 2014 and 2015 for the Tar Heels, he attempted a total of 125 passes, seeing spot duty over 18 games playing behind Marquise Williams. But then, as a junior, Trubisky took over as the starter and finished that 2016 season with a 67.5% completion percentage and a TD/INT ratio of 41/10. He then opted out of his senior season, despite only being a one-year college starter. 

The Bears traded up from the third pick to the second to ensure they got Trubisky. As a draft prospect, there were clear concerns about his lack of starting experience at the college level, and those concerns went on to be valid as Trubisky had a tough time acclimating. His coaching staff and supporting cast didn’t help over those four years, and he certainly would have been much better suited to sit his first season and learn. But Trubisky deserves as much blame as those around him for his failures and inconsistencies in Chicago.

His performance at his Combine was very impressive. He stands a little over 6-2 and weighed in at 222 pounds with a well-built frame. His workout numbers were very good with a 4.67/40-yard dash, good jump and change of direction numbers. He has good straight-line speed and accelerates well. He is very effective throwing on the run or with designed quarterback movement, something that certainly endeared him to the Steelers with Matt Canada’s offense.

Speaking of Canada’s offense, Trubisky fits it very well. Not only from an athletic standpoint and his ability to scramble or get consistent yardage on designed quarterback runs, but also very much from a ball handling standpoint. Over his career, Trubisky’s numbers when using play action-something that is really going to increase in frequency for the Steelers offense this year-are very impressive.

A couple examples:

The Steelers were 31st in the NFL last year with their usage of play-action. That won’t happen again. Expect them to rank in the top 10 in 2022.

In addition to more play-action, the Steelers' passing game absolutely must attack the middle of the field with more frequency. This passing game simply didn’t force defenses to defend enough blades of grass last year, as almost all the Steelers' throws were close to the line of scrimmage, or a go-ball deep down the right sideline.

Trubisky doesn’t have a cannon, but he has plenty of arm. Obviously, he is a plus athlete, and he shows a lot of toughness and competitiveness. He can take a hit and shrug off bigger tacklers, either in the pocket or as a ball carrier. Unlike with the Steelers last year, there isn’t a play call that the coaching staff will need to avoid with Trubisky as the trigger man.

Over his career, Trubisky averages 2.71 seconds from snap to releasing the football. Ben Roethlisberger got the ball out of his hands last year in 2.38 seconds, by far the quickest of all qualifying NFL quarterbacks. There were a lot of extenuating circumstances for Roethlisberger’s quick trigger -- none of them particularly beneficial to the offense as a whole. If Trubisky stays right around 2.71, that would have ranked as the 11th quickest in the league last year. That buys receivers more time to threaten downfield without putting too much stress on the pass protection -- and Trubisky will buy time with his movement much better than Roethlisberger. Joe Burrow and Mac Jones were at or very close to 2.71 last year.

Trubisky began his career backing up Mike Glennon in 2017, but Glennon was benched a month into that season. With Trubisky at the helm, Chicago won four of their final dozen games. He threw seven touchdowns against seven interceptions and really wasn’t asked to do very much as a passer, though he did run for 248 yards. John Fox was fired as Chicago’s head coach after that season, giving way to Matt Nagy.

That year, Trubisky clearly improved and was named as a Pro Bowl alternate, which frankly, isn’t as great of an honor as it sounds on paper. But progress was very much made in 2018. He threw for 300-plus yards in four different games while improving his TD/INT ratio to 24/12 and rushed for 421 yards. Trubisky also took the Bears to the playoffs in his second NFL season and, if Cody Parkey could have hit a 43-yard field goal, Chicago would have beaten the Eagles. Trubisky threw for 303 yards in that brutal loss. 

His yards per attempt increased by almost a full yard more than as a rookie. That was his best season in the NFL.

His third season in the league was less eventful and the Bears team as a whole regressed under Nagy. He did throw for 3,138 yards and 17 touchdowns against 10 interceptions. He was also sacked 38 times in 2019, and his yards per attempt dropped all the way down to 6.1 yards past the line of scrimmage.

The Bears then acquired Nick Foles to challenge Trubisky for the starting job in 2020, but Trubisky still got the nod as the Bears opening day starter. But Trubisky was benched in Week 3 in favor of Foles. Trubisky regained the starting job in Week 12. He played in 10 games that season and finished with a stat line of 2,055 passing yards, 16 touchdowns and eight interceptions before starting against the Saints in the Wild Card round of the playoffs, a game Chicago lost 21-9.

No matter who has been Nagy’s quarterback in Chicago, the offense and quarterback play hasn’t been nearly good enough. Players and Nagy alike deserve blame for this, but it can’t be ignored that the Bears' former head coach never got the most of his signal-caller no matter who it was.

Pocket awareness has been an issue for Trubisky at the NFL level. While he has plenty of arm, identifying what is “NFL open” didn’t come naturally or quickly to Trubisky during his tenure with the Bears. Trubisky operated almost exclusively out of the shotgun at the college level and his footwork and timing with his drops haven’t been ideal thus far. He also hasn’t been great at identifying blitzes, finding hot receivers, and getting the ball out of his hand quickly when needed. Overall, Trubisky has simply made too many bad decisions with the football, and this goes back to his time at North Carolina. He also has been noticeably worse under pressure vs. a clean pocket, more than most NFL starting quarterbacks. 

Of course, one must assume that these are all things Trubisky worked on last year with the Bills.

Also and related: Don’t discount Mike Tomlin’s relationship with Buffalo’s head coach, Sean McDermott, and their William and Mary connection. Tomlin and McDermott almost had to have conversations of some sort about Trubisky (as well as Levi Wallace) before the Steelers made their investment. And all reports out of Buffalo during Trubisky’s stay there were extremely positive from a work ethic and attitude standpoint, as well as his performance in the preseason:

Trubisky had to eat a little humble pie last offseason by taking a clear backup job behind Josh Allen. But such a step back and pause in a talented player’s career, especially a quarterback, can be very beneficial. And Buffalo -- with Allen, McDermott, a winning environment, Ken Dorsey and Brian Daboll, now the Giants' head coach -- was the perfect spot for that.

Now, the next stage.