Kovacevic: The fatalistic forecasts for these 2022 Steelers are hilarious

LATROBE, Pa. -- One by one, they strode onto the Saint Vincent College campus Tuesday afternoon: T.J. Watt. Najee Harris. Cam Heyward. Minkah Fitzpatrick. Eighty-seven others, as well, including so much additional talent interspersed. Diontae Johnson. Myles Jack. Pat Freiermuth. Larry Ogunjobi. Chase Claypool. Alex Highsmith. George Pickens. Cam Sutton. A couple of first-round quarterbacks, too, in Mitch Trubisky and Kenny Pickett.

All, uh, 7.5 wins of them.

As in, the over/under win total for the Steelers in 2022, per Vegas oddsmakers and, by extension, the bettors themselves.

Happy as I was to be here for the first time since 2019, happy as everyone seemed to be here across the complex, I just couldn't escape that figure, that forecast all through this. I kept trying to add it up, every which way, and make some sense of it.

Still can't.

The 2021 team, of course, went 9-7-1 and somehow squeaked into the playoffs. The offense was severely limited in almost every capacity, because of maybe the NFL's leakiest offensive line, because of Ben Roethlisberger's reluctance/inability to throw downfield, because of inconsistent wide receivers and, yeah, because Matt Canada wasn't exactly helping any of the above. The defense always should've been better, but there were times it wasn't ... at all. The Great Gashing of Minneapolis was only one night, but it might've symbolized the hole through the heart left by Stephon Tuitt's absence, Tyson Alualu's injury and Devin Bush's lingering recovery from knee surgery. It became so bad Mean Joe Greene publicly blasted it as "a poor, poor example of the black and gold."

And this 2022 team, I'm to believe, will be 1.5 wins worse than that?

Sorry, I'm not buying what's being sold in that equation. I'm just not.

This roster isn't close to set and, thus, I'm not close to any record prediction. But I'll state this with certainty right now, even on the eve of the first snap of the opening practice here: That over-under and, in fact, all of the punditry that's suddenly foreseeing fatalistic scenarios for a franchise that hasn't seen a losing season in a decade and a half is being based 107% on the absence of Ben's name alone.

Think that's a stretch?

Well, consider that the 2021 team had seven comebacks out of those nine victories, six of those in the fourth quarter, all of them with Ben leading the offense. Never mind that there were loads of other variables in those outcomes, many of them more prominent such as T.J. takeaways, Chris Boswell's kicks, etc. Immaterial. The NFL's got only 17 games, we tend to inflate each one and, within that, there might not be any sexier narrative than the quarterback carrying the offense down the field in the two-minute drill. 

The cold fact: The Steelers won in spite of their offense far more often than because of it, and I'll base that on a No. 23 overall ranking, smacked right between, oh, my, the Lions and Bears.

This offense will be better.

I'm not going to be an idiot and rate any edition of Trubisky and/or Pickett ahead of any edition of Ben. Not yet and probably not ever. But I'm plenty comfortable putting forth that Najee Harris will be far more of a weapon than in his rookie year, and that's saying something weighing that he wound up in the Pro Bowl. Second year. Stronger line. Less chance of opponents stacking the box.

Also, he's blossomed into a legit leader, as his teammates and head coach will concur.

"There are all types of leaders," Najee'd say in his session with us. "It's who the team feels comfortable with, who can set the best example of what the standard is. For me that's playing by the standard."

And what's that mean to him?

"The Steelers' standard is hard-nosed football. Grit. Stuff like that. The tradition of the Steelers. Mine is along those lines, too. I'm motivated. I want to achieve more. Mine is more a hunger and drive."

He'll be worse?

Please.

How about Diontae?

I haven't been a fan of his late-season fades, but the ability's undeniable, as is his No. 5 NFL ranking with 107 catches in 2021 and his No. 10 ranking with 1,161 yards. And maybe just as encouraging, entering the final year of his contract, he reported for work without incident or, according to Mike Tomlin later this afternoon, any hint of a holdout or hold-in or whatever.

Think he's packing a little extra juice?

And what about Claypool?

He's my designated swing vote on the offense, meaning he could be the stumbling, soft-handed, first-down-pointing curiosity he was in 2021, or he could break out like no other player on his side of the ball. He also could be somewhere in between, but even that'd be big-time progress.

It's funny, but for all the fuss he'll spark when he screws up, even just verbally -- and remember his answer to my question in Minneapolis as a guide -- he'll far more often sound the way he did on this day, when he'd self-assess, "I just think, compared to what I've done in prior years, in terms of prep, studying film, it's 10 times more than what I've done. I was pretty naive in the past to think I could repeat success without preparation. I've really taken that preparation to the next step."

Ten times, the kid said. Imagine if it's just double.

Now, none of this matters without adequate quarterback performance, at the risk of stating the insultingly obvious. And again, I'm not about to breathe any of the current names alongside Ben's. He'll soon be fitted for a gold jacket, and they'll soon be splitting snaps three ways in camp.

And yet, if taken in the proper context, it's hardly inconceivable that Trubisky, in particular, could match his extensive experience in a play-action offense ... with Canada's openly acknowledged passion for the play-action ... with the modern NFL pretty much requiring play-action to keep defenses honest ... with Ben seeing play-action the way a vampire sees a cross ... and envision improvement in that area. As well as the occasional deep ball. As well as seeking out more targets across the middle. As well as exhibiting greater arm strength.

Is all that fair?

Some advanced metrics suggest the Steelers had some of the league's lowest-level quarterback play in 2021, though, to keep being fair, there aren't bonus points assigned for big, late wins. It doesn't take a leap to see that, at the most pessimistic, the position would be a break-even rather than an outright downgrade.

Trubisky wasn't available to us here -- sprinted into the dorm saying he had to go to the bathroom, never to return -- but Pickett was, and that might've been for the best. Because his presence was a reminder that, even if Trubisky's a bust, there's an exceptionally enticing prospect already in the fold.

Pickett, who only ever seems to both do and say the right thing in any setting, had this to offer when asked about finally being at Saint Vincent after years of hearing about it next door on the South Side: "A lot of legends and greats have come through here. We're all chasing greatness together."

On which legends come to mind: "I think Jerome Bettis, for sure. A Notre Dame guy. My dad was a Notre Dame fan. Obviously Ben, too. And you've got all the championship Steelers teams before. I mean, there's a ton of guys, but those are the first things that kind of pop into my head."

On how tough a spot he'll be in, trying to take the place of one of those legends: "I'd say it's a great spot to be in. I think I'm on a great team, I've got great guys around me ... I'm excited to be here."

On how Tomlin and staff have structured the quarterback depth chart, both over the summer work and now with what's to come: "I mean, they laid it out for you. Immediately, Coach laid it out that there was a 1-2-3 and a 4. And that's kind of how it went in OTAs and minicamp. So we'll see how it goes when camp opens up tomorrow."

We'll see, all right. Doesn't sound like he'll be satisfied with the back-seat view.

So, who's getting worse around here?

Because someone's got to be getting worse for the collective to get worse, right?

Yeah, good luck on the other side of the ball, too.

T.J.'s still T.J., Cam's still Cam, and Minkah's still Minkah. That's a hell of a foundation, as no one would argue. Least of all Cam himself, who'd declare on this day: "We have guys coming back who know what we're supposed to do, know we can get better. I thought we brought in some guys who can really help out, a mixture of younger guys. And all that being said, I think we should have the No. 1 defense."

In the NFL, he meant.

"We understand our goals," he'd proceed. "We understand where we fell short last year. Our aspirations are to be the No. 1 defense every time we step out there."

T.J. expressed a similar sentiment, saying, "We're a young team, especially on defense. But we have a lot of potential. And building a team starts here in Latrobe. It's not just on the field but off the field. As a defense, you have to be tight-knit to be successful."

I don't know about No. 1, but I'm not seeing anything outside the top 10. Certainly not if they can make a statement in the opener at Cincinnati. Let's bear in mind that this defense still led the league with 55 sacks, and those weren't all T.J.'s. That's been a constant for half a decade now, and it's a beautiful thing to pair with two new defensive minds in Brian Flores and Teryl Austin, the mere mention of whom brings a near-sinister smile to Tomlin's lips.

No, really, watch when a reporter raised those names here:

Catch that?

Look, though, I've got doubts about the rest of the defensive front. Serious doubts. It's wonderful having Alualu back, but he's 35 and already opening up camp on the PUP list, as we learned on this day from Tomlin, with knee trouble. It's even more wonderful adding Ogunjobi, but he told us himself that he'll be moved along slowly before the season following the foot injury that cost him a bigger-money contract this summer from the Bears. Returning to the likes of Chris Wormley, Isaiahh Loudermilk and so forth ... that risks a return to Minneapolis.

I've got doubts about inside linebacker. Grave doubts. I won't believe that Devin Bush can recapture rookie form until he shows it, and I won't believe that Jack or Robert Spillane can compensate for a 2021 Bush sequel.

I've got ... concerns about the secondary. Minkah and Terrell Edmunds offer stability at safety, but it's still to be played out how Ahkello Witherspoon, Levi Wallace and Cam Sutton are distributed, notably whether Sutton's outside or inside. I'd love to see Sutton move back inside and push out some of the other pedestrian options there. And even if that were to go well, I wouldn't underestimate losing Joe Haden, including intangibly. 

But will they get worse?

Wow, I can't compute how.

Others apparently can, though, and no one can know who'll be right until this six-month process takes flight with the first drills on this very Wednesday at 1:55 p.m.

And yeah, I said six-month process. Running at least a week deeper into January than most seem to expect. And costing a whole lot of people a whole lot of cash.