ALTOONA, Pa. -- Penn State opens training camp Monday, full of hope for a big season but also facing several big questions that will shape how the campaign plays out.
On paper, this looks like it could be a very good season for the Nittany Lions. But games obviously aren't played on paper, and if the team struggles on the offensive line once again, then pretty much every prediction one can make has to be thrown out the window.
Yeah, the offensive line is that important.
Before we get to our list of five things to watch in preseason camp, let's take a look at how the season could play out using ESPN's Football Power Index. In this metric, which is based on computer analysis, Penn State is No. 16 in the nation entering the season.
The FPI ranks a team's odds of winning every game, and the Lions are favored in nine of their 12 games this year. But the team's record projection for the season is 8-4, so take that for what it's worth.
Projected losses are listed with an asterisk (*).
Sept. 1 at Purdue: Penn State has a 60.2 percent chance to win
Sept. 10 vs. Ohio: 97.5 percent chance
*Sept. 17 at Auburn: Only a 37.4 percent chance
Sept. 24 vs. Central Michigan: 93.8 percent chance
Oct. 1 vs. Northwestern: 90.1 percent chance
*Oct. 8 at Michigan: Lions have just a 33.1 percent chance
Oct. 22 vs. Minnesota: 75.3 percent chance, which seems very high, although it will be a whiteout game
*Oct. 29 vs. Ohio State: Only a 17.1 percent chance to beat the Buckeyes, who are ranked No. 2 in the preseason FPI
Nov. 5 at Indiana: 75.3 percent chance
Nov. 12 vs. Maryland: 73.2 percent chance
Nov. 19 at Rutgers: 82.8 percent chance
Nov. 26 vs Michigan State: 58.6 percent chance
The Vegas odds for Penn State are listed at 8.5 wins. I'm on the record with a 7-5 mark for the season. Following are results of a Twitter poll about the record:
What will Penn State’s record be this season?
— Cory Giger (@CoryGiger) July 26, 2022
Here’s my pick: https://t.co/9MDNwXRpQd
CAMP STORY LINES
1. Offensive line must gel ... and quickly: Four of the five starting spots already seem to be locked up, with the lone exception being right guard. Sal Wormley and Cornell transfer Hunter Nourzad are expected to compete there. WIth most of the unit playing together throughout camp, it should help everyone build some cohesion. Since the Lions open with a Big Ten road game and have to go to Auburn in week three, it's imperative that the line figures things out in a hurry and compete at a high level right away.
2. Develop the right mindset on O-line: This isn't about personnel, it's about scheme. Penn State's fatal flaw up front last season was a lack of toughness. The pass blocking was generally OK, but when it came time to run block, the linemen simply weren't able to get any kind of push. This stuff falls on offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich and O-line coach Phil Trautwein to be on the same page from a schematic and technique standpoint.
3. Find right mix of aggressiveness of defense: OK, so new coordinator Manny Diaz wants to play an aggressive style. That's terrific. And it could pay off in a big way with more sacks, more interceptions and more fumbles. But there also needs to be a balance, so that the defense doesn't give up a ton of explosive plays trying to be too aggressive. That especially could be a problem in the opener at Purdue, which is probably going to throw the ball 45-50 times. A lot of this will need to be trial and error during the season, but preseason camp needs to be spent evaluating all the players to see if the defense is capable of pulling off Diaz's ultra-aggressive style.
4. Find a middle ground on offense: James Franklin loves to talk about explosive plays. But the offense cannot be an all-or-nothing enterprise, where it's either a deep pass play or a three-and-out. A lot of this comes back to being able to run the ball effectively in key spots. But a lot also has to do with Sean Clifford taking what the defense gives him by finding open targets at short and mid-range distances and consistently hitting them with ACCURATE throws. A passing game that moves the ball 8-12 yards at a clip can be very, very effective. Penn State has lost sight of that the past two years.
5. Pick a backup QB and have him ready to play: If Clifford stays healthy, this will be a moot point. But if Penn State has to turn to a backup for any reason, then that guy must be able to step right in and play at a high level right away. Again, when you've got road trips to Purdue and Auburn in the first three weeks, it's imperative to have a backup signal caller who can step into that environment and keep the offense functioning. This seemingly would have to be Christian Veilleux over Drew Allar, so while those two still may be competing in camp, the more experienced Veilleux needs to be put in position to be able to handle anything at a moment's notice.