Jack Suwinski gave a slight chuckle. I had just told him that teams shift him more than almost any other rookie.
"Yeah," he said. "I bet I am."
It's true. Suwinski has seen a defensive shift in 72.3% of his 292 plate appearances this season. Of the 35 rookies who have received at least 200 trips to the plate this year, only a couple of Royals -- Vinnie Pasquantino (94.1%) and MJ Melendez (75.5%) -- have seen more shifts than Suwinski. There are 325 hitters across baseball with at least 200 PA this year, and Suwinski currently ranks 59th in shift rate, second on the Pirates behind only Bryan Reynolds (78.1%, 45th in baseball).
It's created a challenge for the young outfielder. Even though he's had a pretty good season at the plate, posting a 99 OPS+, it's come despite having just a .245 batting average on balls in play. The last Pirate hitter to go at least 200 PAs with a BABIP that low and produce at least league average results was Mike Diaz in 1987. The last to do it over a season with at least 300 PA? Frank Thomas in 1955.
It stands to reason that banning the shift would do him some good and give him a couple more base hits, especially since he's opted to keep the same approach regardless of if there is a shift or not.
"I've noticed it sometimes, but I try to not let it change what I'm doing because it takes away from my plan," Suwinski said. "If I tell myself to not do something and do something else instead, I'm then just trying something out of the blue. I stick with it and not change what I'm doing."
This week, Major League Baseball announced several rule changes, including what is effectively banning the infield shift. There must now be at least two fielders on both sides of second base with their feet on the infield dirt. There is some wiggle room in that interpretation. A middle infielder can still shade up the middle and play a light version of a shift that way. But the aggressive moves that puts a shortstop in shallow right or completely vacates one side of the diamond are gone.
Banning the shift could be good for Suwinski and Reynolds. Would it be good for the whole team?
I ask, because it is a hypothetical. Going by batting average on ground balls when the Pirates have rearranged their infield, their BABIP allowed is .216, the 10th-lowest in baseball. It's proof that their shifts do work, even if almost every base hit that rolls through a modified infield alignment will draw groans.
That may be because they're more selective. In 2020, they shifted 46.2% of the time, the third most in baseball. They've since dropped to 33.9% this year, which is 14th in baseball.
Consider it another year where the shift has been a net positive for Pirate pitchers. That's been the case for nearly a decade, spanning back to their playoff years from 2013-2015. That way to help their pitchers is going to be neutered.
"I think teams that do it well are definitely losing an advantage," Derek Shelton said. "If you position your guys closer to the baseball and you have a good process for that, it's definitely going to be a disadvantage."
Meanwhile, Pirate hitters have a .282 BABIP on balls in play whenever there is no shift, the fourth-lowest in baseball. That's only 14 points higher than when they are facing a shift or strategic defense.
I wouldn't expect those figures to stay the same, though, after one of the most impactful rule changes in the sport's history. Paradigms are going to shift, perhaps to emphasizing line drive or pull hitters.
Shelton thinks it's a little more cut dry than that.
"It's probably going to be contact," Shelton said. "People that put the ball in play a lot could possibly have more value. Obviously you're still going to want to hit the ball hard. Obviously that's going to be the first thing that stands out, but contact is gonna be something that's greater, because I'm sure at some point somebody's going to do a study of, you take all the games this year and you take the shift away and then there's going to be value put to those players. Like, this guy would have been exponentially this much more valuable."
If that's the case, this could be a problem for the Pirates. They have struck out in 25.^% of their plate appearances this year, the second-most in baseball. Their 26.3% whiff rate is above average, and no National League team has seen a larger increase in team whiff rate this season (up two points from 24.3%).
Now, that's just Shelton's educated guess, but it has logic. League officials want more contact, and if banning the shift will increase BABIP, they'll get on board. And just because this one particular Pirates team is striking out a lot, it doesn't guarantee future teams will. A rule change like this could have a large impact on player development, emphasizing more contact.
"I think the answer is probably yes that it will change something about how we select or train players," Ben Cherington said. "I can't tell you today what that's going to be though."
But at the moment, it looks like this change may be good for the league, but hurt Pirate pitchers more than it helps batters. Time will tell, and it's hard to exactly predict what a rule change like this will bring. The only guarantee is Suwinski and Reynolds are both pretty happy right now.