The Steelers' defense has given up far too many big plays, having surrendered an alarming 43 plays of 20 or more yards. They aren't taking the ball away enough. They've produced just eight sacks since their Week 1 seven-sack outburst. And put together, they're giving up too much slash while not generating nearly enough.
That might be changing.
TJ Watt is coming back, as is Damontae Kazee. Heck, DeMarvin Leal could be back on the field before long. To boot, everyone's well rested after the bye and should have very few bumps and bruises and nagging injuries as they prepare to take on the Saints this Sunday.
What should we expect
First off, as mentioned in last week’s War Room, the Steelers are facing a far easier schedule of opposing offenses. That includes the Colts and Panthers, the only two teams to have fired their head coach thus far, as well as owners of 32nd and 31st rankings, respectively, in offensive DVOA, and 32nd and 30th in offensive EPA.
As with all NFL defenses, most of the snaps the Steelers' defense face will feature 11 Personnel (1 RB/ 1 TE) as their prominent offensive personnel grouping. However, the Ravens are on the schedule twice going forward, as are the Falcons. Both of those offenses prefer very heavy personnel. The Browns won’t have a high percentage of three-wide-receiver sets, either, and the Raiders like to employ a fullback in their two-back offense.
Nonetheless, the Steelers' main personnel grouping will be the nickel package.
That nickel package will consist of a front four of Cam Heyward, Larry Ogunjobi, Alex Highsmith and Watt. On the second level will be Myles Jack and Devin Bush. The safeties will be Minkah Fitzpatrick and Terrell Edmunds. The cornerback situation is a little less clear, but expect newly acquired William Jackson to man one side of the field, Levi Wallace most likely as the opposite cornerback, and Cam Sutton in the slot. Arthur Maulet will handle slot duties, as well, and Ahkello Witherspoon and even James Pierre could continue to get snaps on the outside, as can Sutton. The Steelers will also rotate Malik Reed on the edge and, of course, will incorporate other defensive linemen to spell Heyward and Ogunjobi.
When they play against heavier offensive units like Baltimore’s, Sutton should bump outside, with Wallace leaving the field for Montravius Adams or Tyson Alualu. The Steelers also should employ more dime defense, which would likely mean that Bush leaves the field for Kazee, giving the Steelers a 4-1-6 unit with three safeties and three cornerbacks on the field. In that case, Edmunds will play a fair amount near the line of scrimmage, but that isn’t set in stone as Edmunds does a lot of things well.
But another aspect that you should become accustomed to seeing is the Steelers' big nickel package. That would give them a much different wrinkle against offenses with two wide receivers on the field, but also against 11 Personnel. Big nickel would be a front-four as mentioned above with Jack and Bush backing the line, two cornerbacks, but with Fitzpatrick, Edmunds and Kazee.
The Steelers have been exceptional at disguising their coverages and using great late movement, as well as changing their coverages post-snap. With a third safety on the field that could be taken up a notch.
What is the allure of this big nickel?
It offers versatility without compromising too much in the way of size to defend the run, or too much in the way of coverage.
True deep centerfield free safeties are hard to find in the NFL. It just so happens that Fitzpatrick is the best true free safety in football right now. But Kazee can also handle the deep middle and did so a great deal with the Falcons.
While Fitzpatrick is an elite deep middle defender, he also happens to be great at many other responsibilities, as well -- something we haven’t been able to see enough of during his time with the Steelers thus far.
When the Ravens come to town, maybe the Steelers ask Fitzpatrick to follow Mark Andrews, easily their most important receiving threat, all over the field in man coverage while Kazee handles deep middle responsibilities.
Or next week against the Saints, without a real threat at tight end, maybe the Steelers coaching staff gets real creative with bracket coverages on Alvin Kamara, the engine of New Orleans’ offense. That could force Andy Dalton to hold the ball a tick longer than the play was designed, which is a problem with Watt on the field. Maybe we see Fitzpatrick blitz a few times per game.
There are endless possibilities for Fitzpatrick:
As evidenced above -- and there are, of course, many examples of this -- Fitzpatrick is just an extreme playmaker. He attacks the ball in the air and is very dangerous once he gets his hands on it. But, if you recall, as a draft prospect coming out of Alabama, one of the best things Fitzpatrick brought to the table was his football IQ and versatility. We might see much more of that versatility on display going forward with his current supporting cast.
All of this should mean much less of Robert Spillane on the field, as well as a little less of Bush. Spillane really shouldn’t ever get defensive snaps but he has has 240 already. Bush hasn't been a liability this year and is playing fine, but he still isn’t on the field in obvious passing downs for a reason. Despite being healthy, Bush has been on the field for 336 of a possible 557 snaps.
Also, Jackson, who is far more suited to play man coverage than zone, should be an upgrade at cornerback. And the Steelers are far less likely to become blitz-happy with Watt providing constant pressure, which should lead to more takeaways, as well as fewer big plays allowed:
Remember how Watt can affect a game? How about those back-to-back plays up there from Week 1?
On the first, Watt’s elite diagnosis skills are on full display, as is his rare closing burst and quickness off the snap. Watt was close to taking the handoff from Joe Burrow even after defeating the right tackle’s feeble blocking attempt.
On the next, Watt again reads the scene perfectly, this time a pass-rusher rather than against the run. Then he makes a play that few can pull off with outstanding body control, agility and ball skills for someone who is known as a pass-rusher.
All of this, on paper, sure sounds so much better than what the Steelers have been utilizing most of the season.
Witherspoon has played 248 snaps thus far. Tre Norwood’s participation should drastically decrease. He has been on the field for 227 plays. And players such as Josh Jackson, Jamir Jones, Ryan Anderson and Miles Killebrew now have no clear path to playing time on the defense at all, although the combined 135 snaps of a decent level of play that Jackson and Jones have logged this year could be beneficial going forward.
Of course, more injuries will occur, but this is a tremendous position to be in in early November, nonetheless.
Many of you might not believe it anymore, but this has a chance of being one of the NFL’s better defenses for the second half of the season.