As talented as Chase Claypool is, his departure via trade could give the Steelers' offense an opportunity to jump on a trend that might seem unrelated.
Surprisingly unrelated.
As everyone knows, there are five eligible receivers amongst the 11 men on the offensive side of the ball. More often than not, the Steelers have utilized Najee Harris or Jaylen Warren at running back, Pat Freiermuth at tight end, Diontae Johnson and George Pickens on the outside at wide receiver, and Claypool used to line up in the slot in 11 Personnel, which is one running back, one tight end and three wide receivers.
But, as everyone also knows, Claypool is now in Chicago, having been traded two weeks ago for the Bears' second-round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, making for an excellent deal for the Steelers.
That aside, we now have one game in the books to figure out the Steelers' plan post-Claypool. It's only one game, the 20-10 victory over the Saints, but it was one that saw a season-high 84 snaps for the offense.
Now, the offensive game plan will change week to week, there will be injuries, and some players will either step up or lose the confidence of the coaching staff. There will be plenty of opportunity for all the aforementioned skill players, which is one of the reasons why Claypool was dealt.
Who seizes this new opportunity for playing time?
This exercise isn’t to really analyze the running back usage. But hey, we're here, so let’s dig into that right off the bat.
Against the Saints, Harris was on the field for 50 snaps compared to 35 by Warren. However, on third downs, Warren played 9 of 12 third-down snaps. Harris had 20 carries compared to nine from Warren, and ran a pass route on 16 occasions compared to Warren's 14 throughout the course of the game. If Harris plays like he did on Sunday, this is an ideal rotation and usage for both running backs. If he looks like he did for most of the season, it seems safe to say that Warren’s role will grow.
Case in point:
On this play, the left side of the Steelers' offensive line utterly caves in New Orleans' defensive front, leaving a gaping hole for Harris. It is quite a while before Harris is even touched, but he finishes his run in a very rookie-year Harris manner, inflicting punishment along the way.
Side note: Dan Moore was superb as a run blocker in this game, which is extremely encouraging. The offensive line, as most lines do, collectively seemed to really embrace running the ball over and over.
But Harris’ ability to wear down a defense and handle great volume has tremendous value unto itself. For further evidence, see the Commanders' massive upset in Philadelphia the following night. And that Washington did it by running the ball a mind-blowing 49 times while possessing the football for over 40 minutes.
They must have been gashing the Eagles, right?
Nope. The Commanders averaged just 3.1 yards per rush with a long run of just 11 yards.
Sound familiar?
Only seven teams run the ball more often per game than Washington. To manage this strategy, a team can’t shoot itself in the foot and make unforced errors. The Commanders were plus-2 in turnover differential Monday night and committed just five penalties. They also scored a defensive touchdown, though that was a meaningless play to end the game as the Eagles were desperately lateraling the football to stay alive on the final play of the game.
Volume running has become a trend once again, and it levels the playing field between more and less talented teams as evidenced Monday night.
How about the Falcons, Bears and Giants?
Three of the least talented teams in football were all forecast to pick very early in the upcoming draft because, well, they really don’t have many good football players. But collectively, they have won 14 games and lost 15. That is good coaching ... and volume running. On average, Chicago runs 36 times per game, most in the league. New York runs it 34.4 times per game. Atlanta comes in fourth at 32.8. And these three teams also have excellent running quarterbacks who are also questionable traditional pocket passers. Kenny Pickett might not run like Justin Fields. However, Pickett’s eight carries Sunday -- for 51 yards -- were a career high. Despite only appearing in six games, Pickett is 12th amongst all quarterbacks in rushing.
Check this out:
Of course, this isn’t a designed run, but it also isn’t an option the Steelers have had in quite some time from their quarterback. Pickett’s pocket presence is questionable here, but that's common for young quarterbacks, and his legs make what could have been a positive outcome into a big gain. And there was a massive running lane that was just too hard to pass up.
More evidence: The Titans have zero -- zero -- passing game to speak of, and are leading the AFC South with a 6-3 record on the back of Derrick Henry and their running game. Only six teams run the football more times per game than the Titans.
If you don’t trust me on this, would you trust Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady?
Everyone knows that Green Bay and Tampa Bay haven’t been playing up to their usual standards in 2022. Yet, both teams won this past week, but not on the great play of all-time great quarterbacks. The Packers beat Dallas, 31-28, in overtime. In five quarters of play, Rodgers attempted just 20 passes. Green Bay ran the ball 39 times. Brady threw 29 passes, but he handed the ball off 44 times in a winning effort.
Do any two quarterbacks in the NFL have more power over what their respective teams do on offense or have more skins on the wall than Rodgers and Brady?
No, and these two saw the road to victory for their struggling teams was a voluminous running game.
As for a voluminous running game, the Steelers ran the ball 43 times against New Orleans. They used more 12 Personnel (one running back and two tight ends) than usual for a heavier, more physical approach to get the most out of all those carries. In fact, with Claypool out of the picture, Freiermuth played 58 of those possible 84 snaps, which is a little low for him. Zach Gentry was out there for 43 snaps, almost purely as a blocker, and Connor Heyward was used for 17 plays.
He isn’t a tight end, but using Derek Watt also qualifies as "bigger personnel." Watt played six snaps against the Saints, which is a lot for him.
Miles Boykin also isn’t a tight end, but he might be closer than you think. Not only is he the biggest wide receiver on the team, he is far and away the best blocker as well. Boykin was on the field for 14 offensive plays. That was his highest snap participation in a Steelers uniform. Boykin had never gotten double digit snaps with the offense before Sunday.
So, when the Steelers were in their 12 Personnel, more was revealed. This isn’t surprising, but Pickens got a bump. When the Steelers were in 12 Personnel during the first eight games of the year, Claypool was on the field in that grouping for 60 of 84 snaps. Last week, Pickens played 19 of 27 snaps of 12 Personnel, including 17 of the 18 pass plays. Pickens played 63 of 84 snaps in total.
Also, in Claypool’s absence, Steven Sims played 32 snaps. Gunner Olszewski played 22. Out of 11 Personnel, Sims and Olszewski each played 22 snaps, an even split. But Olszewski never saw the field when the Steelers had two ends on the field.
As mentioned, there were eight snaps in 12 personnel when Pickens was on the sidelines. Sims took that role over for those eight plays, and the Steelers ran the football on every play but one when was the second receiver with two tight ends on the field, and threw the ball on all but one play when it was Pickens. That is a massive tendency that must change immediately as every defensive coach in the league will spot it before long -- especially if they happen to read this article. But the threat of Sims as a ball carrier must have influenced this extreme tendency a great deal.
The Steelers' offense played a very high number of snaps on Sunday, so some of these numbers are a little inflated. However, it was a close game and having such a large one-game sample size should give us more data and information as to how this offense wants to play going forward.
However, over their past four games not including overtime, the Steelers are running 72.7 plays per game, which is the most in the league over that stretch. And that correlates very well with ... you guessed it, voluminous running.
