Stumpf: My Cy Young ballot

Nov 16, 2022 • 6:45 pm

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This season marked the second time that I was given the privilege of voting for a year-end award via the Baseball Writers Association of America, and the first time that I voted for the Cy Young.

Not that there should be any drama of who is at the top of that ballot.

Sandy Alcántara, the Marlins' 27-year-old right-handed ace, was an absolute no-brainer for my Cy Young this year. The other 29 BBWAA writers with a vote agreed, making him a unanimous selection.

I like to think that he would have won in just about any of the other 67 years of the history of award. Maybe the 14-9 record would have cost him at the height of the "wins are the most important stat for a pitcher" era, as if it was his fault he played on a bad team in the toughest division in baseball.

But if you're willing to look at every other metric to evaluate a pitcher:

He threw six complete games, twice as many as the next closest in baseball (Framber Valdez). The last pitcher to throw that many complete games was Chris Sale in 2016.

His 2.28 ERA and 178 ERA+ were second in the league behind Julio Urías (2.16, 194). Alcántara threw 53 2/3 more innings (228 2/3 to 175 IP) and faced 197 more batters (886 to 689) than Urías. Alcántra led the league in both categories by roughly 10% of his nearest competition (Aaron Nola 205 IP, 807 BF).

His 8.0 rWAR was tops among all National League players. Not just pitchers (Nola is second with 6.0), all players, barely edging out Nolan Arenado (7.9) and Paul Goldschmidt (7.8).

Alcántara pitched 91 2/3 of his innings against the Braves, Mets and Phillies, two 100-win clubs and the National League pennant winner. He had a quality start in nine of those 13 outings.

I could run up the score here by just rattling off every analytical category he led the league in, like Win Probability Added (5.4), RE24 (44.9), Adjusted Pitching Wins (4.8), but I didn't want to base my ballot solely off of analytics. That might be surprising coming from someone who writes a weekly analytics column, but I feel a historic award like this should have some reverence for more traditional stats and, perhaps more importantly, the eye test.

Alcántara excels in all of these facets. In an era where inning eaters are a dying breed, he showed that he can provide those innings and elite peripherals and results. The most valuable pitcher in baseball is the best pitcher in baseball this year.

He is his generation's C.C. Sabathia, and this award isn't going to be a one year fluke. He'll be in the mix for more Cy Youngs years to come.

The rest of my ballot went as followed:

2. Julío Urias, LHP, Dodgers

Urías was the ERA/ERA+ champ and the best pitcher of the best team in the National League. Looking at his peripherals, yeah, that ERA probably should have been higher (2.81 xERA, 3.71 FIP), but he kept people off the plate. And a 194 ERA+ is incredibly rare air. Over the last 100 years in the National League, Urías is one of just 15 pitchers to have an ERA that low compared to how the rest of the league performed (min. 162 IP). That is worthy of serious Cy Young consideration.

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3. Max Fried, LHP, Braves

Fried is the guy who is consistently in the top three or five in the league in just about every stat, old school or analytical. From a personal standpoint, I watched him pitch in person twice against the Pirates, and on both occasions he went eight innings of one run ball. He got stronger as the year went on and was the second-best pitcher in the best division in baseball. Facing high-level competition should count for something, which is why the next pitcher on my ballot also got a couple bonus points from me.

4. Aaron Nola, RHP, Phillies

FIP may not always be a perfect stat, but I can't help but wonder if Nola would be lauded as one of the game's best pitchers if he had a competent defense behind him. His 2.58 FIP was second-best in the National League, due in large part to him striking out 8.1 hitters for every walk he surrendered. Like Alcántara, I'm looking past the win-loss record (11-13) in favor of his actual body of work, which was maybe the best of his career.

5. Zac Gallen, RHP, Diamondbacks

A lot of things have to go right to hold hitters to a .186 batting average over the course of the whole season, especially on defense. Gallen had the defense, which is partly why he allowed just 5.9 hits per nine innings. Only 10 National League pitchers in the Live Ball era have accomplished that (min. 162 IP).