With similar teams, Rose Bowl will come down to coaching, execution

PASADENA, Calif. -- One team is tough, physical, likes to hit, doesn't mind getting hit, will punch back, has some playmakers and will battle its tail off for four quarters.

The other team is tough, physical, likes to hit, doesn't mind getting hit, will punch back, has some playmakers and will battle its tail off for four quarters.

Welcome to the Rose Bowl, where Penn State will play ... well, pretty much a version of itself in a game against Utah.

The Pac-12 is known more for playing finesse football and weaker defenses, but that is in no way a description of the Utes.

This is really more of a Big Ten vs. Big Ten kind of matchup than a Big Ten vs. Pac-12 matchup.

“Penn State really is a mirror image of us and our offense,” Utah defensive end Gabe Reid said this wek. “It’s fun and exciting. We actually get to play almost against ourselves.”

"There's a lot of similarities between our programs and how they're built -- fundamentalist program, tough, sound," Utah coach Kyle Whittingham said. "We're playing really well on defense and have been all year long. I think (Penn State has) been built with the background on the defensive side of the ball, as well."

OK, so we've heard that mirror image theme throughout the week. Will it really hold up when, you know, we actually watch the football game Monday evening? And what does it really mean, in terms of game expectations, when we discuss how these teams are so similar?

Does that make it easier, in effect, to play against an opponent that plays a similar style as you? This isn't, for instance, like Penn State is playing Navy or Georgia Tech, the kind of teams that run very different systems, especially on offense.

"I guess what I would say is, early in the season, I do think (it is easier) because when you're in training camp and you're doing good-on-good, playing a team that's similar helps because you've got so many of those reps," James Franklin said.

"But at this point of the season, both their conference and ours, there's enough diversity in the schemes that you see that you cover it all."

Whittingham acknowledged that, yes, he does believe playing a similar opponent can be easier because "It does help you prepare to a certain degree."

But ...

"There's certainly enough differences in what we do that you've got to make sure you cover all your bases and expose your players to all the things they're going to see," Whittingham said.

"We've had a lot of time to prepare. ... I'm sure we're going to see some things that they haven't shown on tape, as will they from us."

Aha!!!!

That's the money line right there.

Since these teams appear to be so similar, the game very well could come down to two things:

1. Which coaching staff has its players better prepared and can make the better in-game adjustments to counter some new wrinkles?

2. Which side will execute its game plan and core fundamentals better?

In short, can Franklin do what he's been unable to do for a long time, which is show up and outcoach the guy on the other side who has a top 10 team? Franklin has lost 11 consecutive games against top 10 opponents since 2016.

On the other side, we can say Utah is like a Big Ten team, but that's when it's playing against Pac-12 competition and isn't necessarily getting hit hard on every play for four quarters. So, can Whittingham get his team to play strong for all four quarters, or will there be a repeat of last year when Ohio State rallied to beat the Utes late, 48-45, in the Rose Bowl?

It should be safe to say, based on Penn State's performance week in and week out against pretty much everybody not named Michigan, that the Lions are going to be in the game the entire way.

Utah is plenty good enough and tough enough to think that we should be able to say the same thing.

"Proud of our football team," Whittingham said. "Showed a lot of resiliency this year. As I mentioned, we got off to a horrible start down in The Swamp against Florida, dropped that ballgame (29-26), dropped a couple Pac-12 games along the way. But they just kept fighting, kept persevering.

"There's no quit in our football team. They're a bunch of warriors."

THE ESSENTIALS

• Who: No. 11 Penn State (10-2, 6-2 Big Ten) vs. No. 8 Utah (10-3, 7-2 Pac-12)
• When: 5:13 p.m. Monday
• Where: Rose Bowl Stadium (90,888)
• Weather: Cloudy 54°, 5% chance rain, 3 mph wind
• TV: ESPN (national)
• Radio: WPIT 96.5 FM
• Satellite: Sirius XM 137, online 957
• Box score: Stat Broadcast
• Media notes: Penn State | Utah

FIVE KEYS

My five keys for Penn State:

1. Like with any big game, the primary question is: Which Sean Clifford will show up? If it's good Sean Clifford, the Lions absolutely can win. If it's bad Sean Clifford -- inaccurate, turnover-prone, etc. -- then Utah is plenty good enough to make Penn State pay in a big way. We can joke about Clifford's age and how long he's been at Penn State, and this will be his final college game. The bizarre fact of the matter is that, even after he's started 46 games over four seasons, we still don't know which version of him will show up in this contest. That's just ... insane, really. Hopefully good Sean Clifford shows up and gives a strong showing to wrap up his career. That means making good, accurate throws, not forcing the issue, taking off and running when necessary and avoiding mistakes that hand Utah easy points.

2. How much will the Lions miss wide receiver Parker Washington (injured) and left tackle Olu Fashanu (injured and questionable)? The big concern here is that, without a No. 1 receiver, Penn State's offense will be missing a key playmaker who could make a big difference in a close game. Yes, the tight ends are good in the passing game, and the running backs have been productive. But Utah is going to load up in the box to slow down the run and make Clifford win the game, and to do that, he needs his weapons to get open, catch the ball and get yards after the catch. Don't be surprised if the Lions use Nicholas Singleton and/or Kaytron Allen out of the backfield to catch passes. That would be a great wrinkle against an aggressive Utah defense.

3. Utah's Cameron Rising is a good, efficient quarterback who can run and throw. The Lions' defense has to be able to take away one of those and force him to do the other all game. Ideally, spy on Rising running and force him to win the game with his arm. He is capable of doing that, but he's also without his top receiving target in tight end Dalton Kincaid, who opted out. The Utes are very similar to Penn State in that they love to throw to the tight ends, so Kincaid's absence is massive.

4. Franklin and the Penn State coaches need to be on their A game. Now, as we've seen this season, Franklin has let Mike Yurcich and Manny Diaz run their units and seems to have avoided interfering too much. That's been a good thing, and it needs to continue here. Franklin knows how much winning this game could mean for the program, so hopefully he doesn't panic and make one or two bad decisions out of desperation. His team is good enough to win the game, but maybe not good enough to overcome bad coaching decisions and win. Make no mistake, this is very much a contest that we need to watch closely to see if Franklin has improved as a game day coach.

5. Utah was in this game last year, and that is a distinct advantage. It's the Rose Bowl, a dream come true for a lot of players, and the moment can be too big for some if they let it. Penn State got off to bad starts in both the 2008 and 2016 Rose Bowls. They were never really able to fight back in 2008, but they did in 2016 because they had an incredibly talented offense led by Saquon Barkley, Trace McSorley and Chris Godwin. This year's team is nowhere near that talented on offense, so falling behind a tough defensive team like Utah and then trying to play catch up could be a major challenge. The Lions need to be ready to go right from the outset, because I get the feeling Utah absolutely will be ready to go.

PREDICTION AND BEST BET

Utah is favored by 1.5 points. Over/under is 53.5.

I'm going Utah 31, Penn State 26.

I'll give you two picks for the game.

Take Utah to win on the money line of -109.

And if you want to go with a spread: Take the over of 53.5.