The Steelers rushed for 198 yards in Baltimore last week. In the eight games leading up to that matchup, the Ravens had allowed a total of 577 yards on the ground, an average of just 72.1 per game. Since their Week 9 bye, the Steelers have racked up 1,170 yards on the ground for an average of 146.3 rushing yards per game.
Since their bye, the Steelers' offense is seventh in the NFL in expected points added (EPA), just behind the Bengals and one spot ahead of the Bills. During that timeframe, the Steelers are ninth in EPA per dropback and third in rushing EPA. Not coincidently, they have a 6-2 record during this stretch and are now back to having a .500 record with a chance to get into the postseason.
That is all terrific.
But is it sustainable?
That isn’t to ask if it is sustainable this upcoming Sunday against Cleveland, one of the worst run defenses in the league. Or even if it is sustainable for a playoff matchup if the Steelers happen to sneak into the postseason. What we need to ask is if the running game is sustainable for next year as the foundation of this offense as the quarterback matures.
Let’s first examine the ball carriers.
Against the Ravens, Najee Harris went over 100 rushing yards for the first time this season and the tape backed it up that it was his best performance of the season. He has now gone over 85 yards on the ground in three of his most recent five games and five of eight games since the Steelers' Week 9 bye.
Harris is a big power runner, but he isn’t a home run threat. He is a sustainer and a punisher who can really get rolling as the game goes along. As his rookie year showed, he can handle a massive workload. If we are currently ranking all the running backs in the NFL, he comes in right around 15th after quickly scanning the league. Maybe he is 12th. Maybe he is 17th. But he is a middle of the road starting NFL running back, which is good enough for this running game to sustain next year and beyond.
Here is a collection of Harris’ best plays this past week against the Ravens:
Is this something we should come to expect in the future?
Jaylen Warren has 611 fewer rushing yards than Harris this year, but Warren averages 4.8 yards per carry compared to 3.8 by Harris. Warren got double-digit carries against Baltimore for the second time in three weeks. And in both of those games, Harris had 20 or more carries. For the most part, Harris gets about a 2:1 ratio in playing time over Warren, but the undrafted rookie is clearly the Steelers' third down back.
Warren has been a tremendous find and is an ideal cheap young complement to Harris. He has a very different running style, which makes this backfield difficult to play against. Warren should also be able to handle the top spot for a short stretch if Harris were to miss time.
But the Steelers get extremely little in the way of big plays from their running game. The Steelers are one of just three teams that does not have a rushing play that resulted in a gain of forty or more yards. There are also just five teams that have fewer runs of 20 or more yards.
Benny Snell has a great deal of special teams value and that can’t be discounted. But what if the Steelers could find a scatback type in the mid rounds of the draft that had home run speed? It certainly isn’t worth shaking up the top two in the running back pecking order, but maybe a player for spot work with more juice in the Anthony McFarland mold could be a welcome addition at a cheap draft price.
Unlike in recent seasons, the quarterback also factors in here a great deal. Kenny Pickett has appeared in a dozen games this year and has carried the ball 52 times, averaging 4.5 yards per carry, which is a bit misleading as quite a few of Pickett’s carries have been on very short yardage situations when he just plowed into the line to pick up the first down, something Pickett is proving to be very good at, by the way. That quarterback sneak is a legitimate weapon.
Pickett is an exceptional athlete, a much better athlete than most give him credit for. He is very twitchy with light, quick feet. His ability to run the football will be an asset for this team without question, whether within or out of the offensive structure. He is averaging just under 20 rushing yards per game. That is about what we should count on from Pickett going forward, if not more.
Here are Pickett’s college highlights from a mobility standpoint and, while they are impressive, it could be argued that he is moving better now than ever. He appears even more twitched up in a Steelers uniform than he did at Pitt:
That sums up the ball carriers, but what about the scheme going forward and the blocking?
Will Matt Canada return next year?
Who is to say definitively at this point, but much of what the Steelers do in the ground game schematically should return no matter who is calling the plays. It takes a long time to develop a consistent outside zone running game, as well as the ability to double-team properly and then get to the second level of the defense. It sure did take time this year, but the Steelers have really started to thrive in those areas and that absolutely should not be disturbed for next year.
How about the offensive line?
This starting five has played very well and continues to get better. Offensive line coach Pat Meyer should be commended with what he has done with a fivesome that doesn’t have a lot of high-end talent or pedigree. Many of you might not believe this if you don’t pay a great deal of attention to the rest of the league, but the Steelers now have a league-average (or better) offensive line, something we all would have gladly taken when the season opened.
Want further proof that this is a good offensive line? Stats for offensive linemen can be a little difficult to pinpoint and are a bit hit or miss. That being said, by Football Outsiders line stats, the Steelers are currently 10th overall in Adjusted Line Yards, their running game metric. They are first by a wide margin in what Football Outsiders calls “Power Success,” which is basically just short-yardage situations. The Steelers are sixth in “Stuffed Ranking,” which is the percentage in which a running back is tackled at or behind the line of scrimmage. They are run blocking well.
The problem is that the Steelers have been remarkably fortunate with injuries to this unit in 2022. And that is unlikely to sustain, which is just the cruel nature of this league. This starting five is good enough, but how much faith do you currently have in the backup offensive linemen currently on this roster? Very little if you ask me.
In a perfect world, the Steelers would upgrade at left tackle and bump Dan Moore into a swing tackle role, or possibly even in a battle for the starting left guard spot. In a perfect world, the Steelers would upgrade at center and bump Mason Cole into a swing interior role, or possibly even in a battle for the starting left guard spot. That would give this team seven quality linemen and enviable depth, as well as more talent amongst the starters.
That might be a little pie in the sky thinking, though, considering the other areas of this team that needs addressed. Surely the Steelers will add offensive linemen, but will it come in the form of a high-end starting left tackle and center? It is possible, but that is asking a lot.
How about the other blockers outside the five big men? Running the ball is a group effort and the tight ends, and even wide receivers, very much have a hand in that success or failure. Since trading away Chase Claypool, the Steelers have gotten a lot in this capacity from Zach Gentry, Connor Heyward, Gunner Olszewski and Miles Boykin, all of whom have gotten expanded roles with Claypool in Chicago.
That is all well and good and it is working, but that portion of this process might not be sustainable. Gentry has a role and Heyward looks like a keeper, but the other two (as well as Steven Sims) aren’t guaranteed anything going forward.
Of the five skill position players, ideally, barring injuries, the guys who will see the most playing time are a running back, Pat Freiermuth, Diontae Johnson and George Pickens. That leaves just one spot up for grabs.
While the names mentioned above will get time in that spot, ideally, that player is not yet on the roster. Well, maybe it is Calvin Austin, but putting all your eggs in the Austin basket seems unwise.
Picture this offense as a whole with a compact slot receiver who can really run and get vertical instead of a pedestrian player like Olszewski. Now you are cooking with gas for Pickett, but your run blocking would suffer. It would still be very worth it, nonetheless.
So, is the Steelers' run game that we’ve seen since the bye week sustainable into next year?
Without question. Heck, it might even be improved with a few choice personnel upgrades, a quarterback in his second season, and a more explosive downfield passing attack to back defenders off the ball.
The foundation is in place.