Receiver concern grows as transfer portal window winds down

ALTOONA, Pa. -- We've got a whole lot of transfer portal stuff in this week's Friday top 5, starting with the most pressing concern for the Penn State football program.

One thing to know about the transfer portal is that the current early 45-day window is about to close in five days, on Jan. 18. The next window for players to transfer will be a 15-day opening from May 1-15.

1. Penn State has struck out in the portal so far in the most important area

The Nittany Lions have yet to land a wide receiver. And that, as we have discussed numerous times in recent weeks, could end up being a BIG problem next season, as there doesn't appear to be a legitimate No. 1 wideout on the team right now.

Penn State had a commitment from NC State transfer Devin Carter, who announced on the evening of the Rose Bowl that he was coming on board. Carter has been a consistent 30-catch guy for the Wolfpack, not necessarily No. 1 material, but still a veteran who has played lot and a good portal pickup.

But Carter changed his mind less than a week later and announced he's now going to West Virginia.

The funny tweet below in response to the Carter news is really the main issue here.

OK, so it's not like Drew Allar will have zero toys next season, but you get the idea. For the prized quarterback prospect to fully maximize his potential -- and for Penn State to truly be a top 10 team -- the Lions absolutely must have some dangerous playmaking wide receivers who can get the job done downfield against strong defenses.

If you're comfortable that KeAndre Lambert-Smith will be that guy next season, then all of what I'm writing probably feels like an overblown concern to you. KLS did have an 88-yard TD in the Rose Bowl and 24 catches for 389 yards with four scores, so maybe he can take a giant leap and become a legit No. 1 guy.

Sorry, but I just don't see that occurring. Not in 2023 anyway. He just showed too much inconsistency as the No. 3 wide receiver this year to feel that confident in him.

The Lions have a bunch of young wideouts who could surprise us next season, but to think any will be a No. 1 that early just seems far fetched.

Anyway, back to the portal.

Here is the breakdown of the top 25 wide receiver transfers from this cycle, from 247Sports. As you'll see, 23 of them have already picked their destination. Arland Bruce IV from Missouri, No. 23 on the list, is still undecided.

That leaves Kent State's Dante Cephas, the No. 4 wide receiver target. Early on, it seemed like Penn State would be the choice for the Pittsburgh native, but a couple of weeks ago, ESPN's Pete Thamel reported that Cephas would be picking Pitt.

Nothing has happened since. There has been speculation that Cephas will remain at Kent State for this semester and perhaps work on academics. Kent State's spring semester begins Tuesday, one day before the current transfer portal window closes.

Who knows with Cephas? Maybe he picks a school in the coming days, maybe he waits until May for the next transfer portal window.

Here's the latest thing Cephas tweeted about football, and of course, it's cryptic, so read into it what you will.

At this point, given what's available and the dire need for a top-flight wideout, pretty much the only thing that could save Penn State would be locking up a commitment from Cephas. Because if the Lions don't land him this offseason, there just doesn't seem to be anybody good enough left in the portal, and that probably won't change in May after spring ball, either.

2. Finally, some GREAT news about the transfer portal chaos

It's amazing to me how sometimes HUGE news can go so under-reported. A case of this happened Thursday, when the NCAA made what I believe to be a massive change to transfer portal rules.

The past couple of years, players could transfer as many times as they wanted and still be eligible to play immediately. This made for a situation where college athlete-students could be free agents each and every year.

Which has created chaos, when coupled with NIL and its complete lack of regulation.

But Thursday, the NCAA actually did something right for a change!

I know, I know. That's incredibly shocking in and of itself, because the NCAA is one giant freaking joke of an organization. But seriously, this was a good move.

The NCAA will still allow a player to transfer once, but it has placed significant restrictions on undergraduates who try to transfer a second time. They will no longer be able to play immediately unless they can meet certain strict guidelines.

First, a player must prove that he or she has a physical injury, an illness or a mental health issue in order to receive a waiver for a second transfer. Or, the athlete must prove "exigent circumstances," such as physical assault or abuse, or sexual assault that is not related to athletics. Check out more of the details here:

A player who has a degree will still be able to play immediately as a graduate transfer, even if it is his or her second time transferring.

How big of an impact will this have? Well, I personally believe it will be massive, for one major reason.

Now that players know they only get one do-over, you'd think the vast majority of them will protect that do-over and make the best use of it that they can.

For instance, if a freshman didn't like his situation at one school, he could leave and go somewhere else, while knowing that he still could transfer again in the future if school No. 2 didn't work out. Now, with this rule change, athletes will have to think long and hard about leaving the first school and may not be so willy nilly to do so if they only get the one free transfer.

The transfer portal has gotten out of control, because everybody believes the grass is greener on the other side. And a lot of times in life, that's just not the case.

Maybe, just maybe this new NCAA rule will help quiet the chaos a noticeable amount.

3. Updating Penn State's current portal situation

The Lions lost a former 4-star recruit to the portal Thursday when linebacker Jamari Buddin announced he's moving on.

Buddin was ranked the No. 11 prospect in Michigan and No. 40 linebacker in the country when he committed to Penn State in the class of 2021. He appeared in nine games this past season, collecting eight tackles (four solo) with 1.5 tackles for loss and one fumble recovery. He also appeared in four games during his redshirt season in 2021.

Buddin is the seventh Penn State player to enter the transfer portal. The other six:

• QB Christian Veilleux (Pitt)
• DL Davon Townley
• CB Jeffery Davis Jr.
• DE Rodney McGraw (Louisville)
• OT Maleek McNeil
• DL Fatorma Mulbah (West Virginia, which he announced Thursday)

The Lions have picked up only two players from the portal, and both are good gets. They landed cornerback Storm Duck from North Carolina and punter Riley Thompson from Florida Atlantic, both of whom likely will be starters next season.

Overall, Penn State sits at No. 61 in the 247Sports transfer portal rankings for this cycle. While that number sounds concerning, the Lions have a lot of good, young depth at many positions thanks to strong recruiting, and the players they've had transfer out were not major contributors.

Again, however, Penn State's transfer portal situation would look a whole lot better if it had addressed the biggest need on the team, which is wide receiver.

4. My record prediction for 2023 is ...

Actually, I'm holding off on this for a few more days, until after the transfer portal window closes. I usually like to give a very early prediction shortly after the season ends, but the portal window changes my timeline.

Especially this year, because as I'll repeat one more time, the receiver situation is that important.

I'm deciding anywhere from 11-1 to 9-3 for my prediction. While there is a lot to like about next year's team, I have major concerns about the offense being able to carry its end of the weight if there's not a No. 1 wide receiver, plus there's the loss of the top tight end, Brenton Strange. I also don't think enough is being made of the defense losing stars Joey Porter Jr. and Ji'Ayir Brown, two guys who will be incredibly difficult to replace.

I'll probably have a story on my record prediction next weekend.

5. Tremendous win for basketball team over Indiana

This has been an extremely busy week of football coverage, what with all the drama of the rankings (I love the Franklin-Narduzzi stuff!) and looking ahead to next season. Our readership numbers have been terrific for the first week of the offseason, and I just want to say thank you to everyone for that.

I will start to have a heavier focus on men's basketball coming up, with the Lions likely to remain on the NCAA Tournament bubble for the foreseeable future. I believe there's not only a good chance they'll make the tourney, but also that they could win one or even two games in the big dance.

Penn State certainly helped its cause with a fantastic showing in an 85-66 win over Indiana, the Lions' largest margin of victory ever against the Hoosiers.

Indiana was picked to win the Big Ten in the preseason media poll, while Penn State was picked 11th. But to show how tough things can get in the Big Ten, the Hoosiers were ranked No. 15 in the country a week ago but have dropped three straight games to fall to 1-4 in the league.

Still, Indiana came in with a strong resume and NET ranking of 27, and beating the Hoosiers helped the Lions jump all the way from 67 to 52 in the NET rankings.

Penn State is 3-3 and probably needs to go 9-9 in the Big Ten, plus get a win in the conference tournament, to reach the NCAA Tournament. The Lions have a trip to Wisconsin next, and they've never won in the Kohl Center.

But after that game, the schedule gets a little easier with a home game against Nebraska, a trip to Rutgers and home game against Michigan. Penn State must win at least two of those three.