Leadership and more: How Cutch's return really helps the Pirates

It's hard not to romanticize Andrew McCutchen's homecoming.

Once the face of the franchise during the unquestioned best period of Pittsburgh baseball this side of 1992, the former Most Valuable Player and five-time All-Star is a physical away from returning to the organization with which he started his professional career.

And honestly, if there's anyone more excited about it than Pittsburgh, it might be McCutchen himself:

The reunion is, by itself, a great story, and unquestionably the most exciting move in what has been a busy Pirates offseason.

And no, a now 36-year-old McCutchen is not an MVP candidate anymore, and his .237/.316/.385 slash line, 17 homers and 1.1 WAR last year are pretty pedestrian for an everyday player. But there are still areas where he excels on the field. Areas where the Pirates could use some help.

Areas that make this more than just a happy reunion, but a quality move to improve the 2023 ball club.

THE PIRATES NEED A RIGHTY

The Pirates have had a really difficult time finding right-handed hitters these last few years. Of the nine players currently on the Pirates' roster who are listed as outfielders, five are left-handers (Jack Suwinski, Tucupita Marcano, Cal Mitchell, Canaan Smith-Njigba and Travis Swaggerty), Bryan Reynolds is a switch-hitter and three are right-handers. That group of right-handers are Connor Joe, Miguel Andújar and Ryan Villade, all three of whom are fairly new to the team, and it would be foolish to assume waiver claims Villade and Andújar have solid roles with this team.

As a result, the Pirates are returning just one hitter who excelled against left-handed pitchers: Rodolfo Castro. Most of the top hitters against southpaws from last year, like Kevin Newman and Diego Castillo, are gone: 

Carlos Santana had a .789 OPS and Joe a .744 OPS (with half of those at-bats coming in Coors Field). The Pirates could use some right-handed help.

Over the last three years, McCutchen has a .901 OPS against southpaws. That did include a noticeable drop last year, both in terms of results (.738) and peripherals. But even if he doesn't bounce back to how he hit very recently, the results he had last year are at least an upgrade against left-handers, something that this team needs.

HE CAN STILL HIT A FASTBALL

Last year's offense struggled in a variety of areas, including one of the basic tenents of hitting: Catching up to the fastball. As a team, their .393 slugging percentage against fastballs ranked 27th in baseball and their .316 wOBA was 29th. It's still a fastball-first league, and if teams aren't hitting them, they probably aren't posting good results.

This past season was the first time in McCutchen's career that he posted middling fastball numbers, slugging .422 with a .333 wOBA. The underlying metrics were still quite strong, including a 90.8 mph average exit velocity. As a result, his expected stats were much better (.458 expected slugging, .356 xWOBA).

And interestingly, McCutchen did better when he faced higher velocity. Against pitches that are 95 mph or higher, McCutchen slugged .463 with a .372 wOBA. The league average marks are a .374 SLG and .310 wOBA. Among the 153 hitters who had at least 75 PA against fastballs that fast, McCutchen ranked in the top 20%. He can still catch up to high velocities.

Interestingly, the type of fastball McCutchen struggled against were sinkers, which is the best ground-ball pitch. What's next is part of the reason why:

BUYING INTO BEATING
THE (NON) SHIFTS

Two of the first moves the Pirates made this winter were to trade for Ji-Man Choi and sign Santana, two veteran hitters who posted good, but not great results in 2022 and were heavily shifted. That last part is important because aggressive infield shifts will be banned and there must be two infielders on the dirt on each side of second base.

Players can still shade to one direction of that second base bag and it may not create as many hits as expected, but this is unquestionably a boost for hitters, and it makes sense why the Pirates would target hitters who were robbed of hits last year.

That includes McCutchen.

Going by Baseball Savant's data, right-handed hitters were shifted in 19.6% of their plate appearances league-wide last year. McCutchen was shifted in 49% of his trips to the plate. Those shifts were effective, too, as McCutchen had just a .228 batting average on balls in play in those scenarios. When he faced a standard defense, he had a .342 BABIP.

For a right-handed hitter, the new shift rules could mean that the second baseman just moves over a couple steps, and most of those outs McCutchen hit into last year could still be converted. Still, even a handful of extra base hits is a very welcome boost.

HE KNOWS THE ZONE

Since his debut in 2009, only two hitters have drawn more walks than McCutchen's 983 (Joey Votto with 1,274 and new Pirate Carlos Santana with 1,148). The Pirates walked a pretty average amount last year, ranking 15th in walk rate (8.1%) and tied for 17th with 476 total walks.

Excluding the shortened 2020 season, last year was the first time McCutchen's walk rate dipped below double-digits (9.8%), so he may not move the needle too much. That's still a really solid, rate, though.

And the traits that made McCutchen so effective are still there. His 20.8% chase rate is still among the lowest in the league, and few hitters saw a bigger increase at their swing rate on pitches in the zone last year. The latter point has been something I've written a couple times that this offense needs to rectify. Having a guy like that helps on the field, and for young players getting used to the majors.

And that's really where McCutchen can help the most. He's a veteran. He knows what it takes to win in Pittsburgh.

For a team looking to take a step in 2023, that's invaluable.