BLACKSBURG, Va. -- I don't want to overreact to Pitt's 79-72 loss to Virginia Tech on Saturday here in Blacksburg.
I don't think this is an overreaction, either. Consider this a "state of what the ACC really, probably, likely is" without the hubbub of gaudy analytics clogging your feed. When considering how every game, every half, every minute, and every possession matters, maybe the ACC is just this good of a conference?
With four games to play, Pitt (19-8, 12-4 ACC) lines up in third place behind Virginia (13-3 ACC) and Miami (13-4). The parity within the league can be organized into tiers, with Clemson (11-6) and NC State (10-6) vying for a top-four seed and a double bye alongside the three aforementioned teams in that first tier.
Realistically, Duke (9-6), Syracuse (9-6), Wake Forest (9-7), and even North Carolina (8-7) can squeak into one of those seeds, barring some wacky circumstances.
But, realistically, four double byes in the ACC tournament are out there for those five top teams. Pitt has a favorable schedule and should end 4-0 or, at worst, 3-1 in it, with a showdown at No. 15 Miami to close the season March 4 to be a potential deciding factor for seeding.
"We were preseason-14th in the league, so I mean, we still keep that chip on our shoulders," Nelly Cummings said Saturday. "We got a result we don't want today, but we're back to the lab tomorrow. ... This is one of the better leagues in the country, so, I mean, it is what it is. There's good teams, great environment, and a lot of the teams in the ACC are just like that, as well."
The ACC has been a dog-eat-dog conference this season. On its way to conference contention, Pitt has taken down NC State, Virginia, North Carolina twice, Wake Forest, and Miami with the NC State and one UNC win on the road.
In addition to losing to Pitt, Virginia has also lost to Miami and Virginia Tech; Miami has lost to Georgia Tech, NC State, and Duke; and NC State has lost to Miami, Clemson, North Carolina, and Syracuse.
Additionally, Clemson, which beat Pitt by one point, has lost to Wake Forest, Boston College, Miami, UNC and, on Saturday, at Louisville.
Ahead of Pitt are what should be three straight winnable games against Georgia Tech, Syracuse, and at Notre Dame. Three wins would effectively erase the sting -- what one there is, considering Virginia Tech is a Quadrant 1 loss with respect to the NCAA NET Rankings -- of Saturday's loss.
"I think, going forward, no game's going to be easy," Cummings said. "So, every game's going to have different challenges. We've just got to be ready to adapt to them on the fly."
The NET has been mentioned ad nauseam on this platform because of how prevalent it is when the NCAA Tournament selection committee formulates the field of 68 come Selection Sunday. The resumes get thrown into this computer blender and spat back out to us to digest, whether we want to agree with the flavor or not.
Largely, Pitt has not been in favor of the NET or the KenPom rankings for many reasons. But, the Panthers at various checkpoints have passed the eye test with quality wins and losses, without sustaining too many "bad" losses.
Saturday's loss was "bad" in the sense of how Pitt ultimately played, but here is where credit is due to Virginia Tech: That team took the No. 1 team in the ACC and did everything it could to make that top dog roam through a different yard.
"What has occurred here is not by accident," Virginia Tech coach Mike Young said. "Jeff Capel has done an excellent job. They are very, very good."
Virginia Tech is no slouch. Let's not gloss over the Hokies winning the 2022 ACC Tournament championship and pretend this team is not equally as battle tested and competitive as Pitt.
"I just thought they played with a sense of urgency and they played with a physicality, and it knocked us off a little bit," Capel said. "We weren't able to get into the rhythm. They did a terrific job of guarding the 3-point line. ... We got beat by a good basketball team that's been -- I think they've been pretty good here. They've beaten some teams here and they played with a sense of desperation, a sense of urgency, so give them credit."
As reinforced by Cummings above and by Greg Elliott Thursday, Pitt does not take kindly to being voted to finish 14th in this league. Pitt had to go back on the hunt to take the top of the conference for a portion of this season before officially losing it -- perhaps only temporarily -- Saturday.
Once the hunter-turned-hunted, Pitt is back on the hunt for that top spot.
But ...
"We never look at anything like that," Capel said. "We concentrate on what's right in front of us. We never paid attention to it. We were just trying to concentrate day-by-day and try to get better. That's it. It doesn't put us in any different position."