Let’s play a little game. It’s a “Choose Your Own Adventure” game. But, it is with the Steelers' 2023 Draft.
An excellent web site, Grinding the Mocks, compiles many (very many) mock drafts from all over the internet. I can’t say that I know their process exactly, but looking over their results, it is extremely realistic and believable. Some of the top players have gained an average draft position based off as many as 876 mock drafts, and we'll be working from the final results.
So, where are we going with this? What about that draft game?
Before we play, please remember that these are currently the draft picks to which the Steelers currently own the rights. And, they are very unlikely to gain any sort of compensatory picks.
• Round 1, 17th overall
• Round 2, 32nd overall
• Round 2, 49th overall
• Round 3, 80th overall
• Round 4, 120th overall
• Round 7, 236th overall
• Round 7, 243rd overall
That is a heck of a haul. Well, it is a heck of a haul within the top 120 picks overall. But, for the most part, it is a barren wasteland after the Steelers' fourth round selection. It really isn’t a big deal to have such a massive gap in the fifth and sixth rounds (those picks were sent to Seattle and Denver, respectively), and of course it is best to have most of your draft capital in the early rounds. But, the Steelers have a lot of needs and surely will like some players that are available between 120th and 236th overall. Adding more picks wouldn’t be difficult to pull off, and is an interesting strategy with where this team currently stands.
So, what I am proposing, and where the game takes place, is what if the Steelers were to entertain a small trade down from either the 17th overall pick or moving down a few spots from 32? With all respect to Grinding the Mocks, surely much will change between now and late April with their data. Even though they do an excellent job, the draft won’t go exactly to plan.
But, let’s pretend that we don’t know all the results and live in the moment knowing just the selections before the Steelers pick. I promise to do the same. Lastly, to properly set this up, you need to be familiar with the latest and best, albeit imperfect, draft trade value chart.
If this goes as set up here (and again it won’t), it makes for a fun adventure. There are some players that won’t be in the equation whatsoever for the Steelers. That starts with quarterbacks Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud and Will Levis, as well as stud defensive prospects Will Anderson and Jalen Carter. As displayed here, it also looks more and more unlikely that the Steelers will have a shot at Tyree Wilson, Myles Murphy, Christian Gonzalez, Parris Johnson Jr., Peter Skoronski and Devon Witherspoon. And, I agree -- at least, before the Combine -- that these 11 prospects won’t be on the board at 17.
The remaining five players that fell before the Steelers could pounce here are Anthony Richardson, Joey Porter Jr., Brian Branch, Quentin Johnson and Jordan Addison. When it is all said and done, I think there is very little chance that Richardson is there at 17. In fact, here is betting that Richardson ends up going in the top 10. The other four could be in the mix, but it seems highly unlikely that a wide receiver has yet to be taken when the Steelers go to the podium. At least one wide out will be off the board, and maybe as many as three.
It just so happens, with the way this fell, the best player available by their data is also the player Steelers' fans are likely ready to pounce on: Broderick Jones, a fine offensive tackle from Georgia. And, that makes this even more fun.
Remember, these are highlights. They aren’t Jones’ down moments or his average moments. But, watching such a video does show what Jones could be capable of, and that is quite alluring. Adding Jones could bump Dan Moore to the sixth offensive line role/swing tackle or even to a battle with Kevin Dotson for the left guard job. But, don’t forget there might be very suitable offensive tackles to kick off the second round as well.
So here is what I propose: Choose your own adventure right now. Choice one is to run to the podium and turn in the card for Jones, which makes all the sense in the world. Or …you accept this offer from the Jacksonville Jaguars who want to move from the 25th pick up to 17 to steal Jones from right under our noses. But, to move up from 25 to 17, the Jaguars would owe 230 points of value to make such a move, which is the equivalent of the 72nd pick overall. That early third round pick value would sure come in handy, but in this case, we gladly decline the offer and snag Jones.
But, what if Jones hadn’t gone, and instead Porter was still available? That would add one more cornerback to the mix and possibly make such a trade more feasible in a deep position in this class, and maybe the Steelers would accept such an offer from Jacksonville. But, that door shut. We took Jones. But, feel free to play along and choose any adventure you like.
Let’s do it again at 32, but now we already have Jones in the mix, and without any additional picks. Picks 18 to 31 saw these players fall, many of whom would have fit in extremely well right after Jones for our draft purposes: Michael Mayer, Bijan Robinson, Calijah Kancey, Lukas Van Ness, Bryan Bresee, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Cam Smith, Drew Sanders, Deontae Banks, Jalin Hyatt, Zay Flowers, Kelee Ringo, O’Cyrus Torrence and Keion White.
Every team then retires to their draft bunkers after that first day (31 picks this year) is in the books. And, the Steelers have the advantage of having the first selection on Day 2. And that will surely draw calls from other teams (not that pick No. 17 won’t).
If Jones were already coming to Pittsburgh, the remaining names that would be highly attractive include cornerbacks Emmanuel Forbes and Clark Phillips, and there could be other attractive corners still available at 49. How about a great interior offensive lineman such as John Michael Schmitz or Steve Avila? This is an excellent tight end draft. How about Darnell Washington, Dalton Kincaid or Luke Musgrave? Trenton Simpson or Siaki Ika would be intriguing defensive additions. But, unfortunately for the Steelers, maybe the most attractive players on the board very well could be offensive tackles Anton Harrison and Dawand Jones. Going back-to-back at tackle makes this not an option, however.
Boy is Dawand Jones intriguing! With Moore in the mix, the Steelers wouldn’t have to rush him into the lineup and could gradually teach the gigantic lineman how to play the left side while incorporating him into six offensive line sets. But, making draft picks has consequences, and adding Broderick Jones in the first round makes it just too difficult to take Dawand with the subsequent selection with all the Steelers' roster needs.
So, if it is me, I am taking Forbes to pair with the first rounder, Jones. And, am very happy with getting value at two positions of need that also are two of the highest-valued positions in the sport outside of quarterback. Jones then Forbes is an excellent start to the Steelers' draft.
But, what if the Rams wanted one of those offensive tackles and wanted to move up from 37 to 32? The Steelers could pick up something equivalent (or a little more) of the 117th pick overall. Tennessee could sure use an offensive tackle such as Harrison and Jones. Would the Steelers entertain moving down 10 spots to the 42nd selection? That would get them an additional 110 points on the value chart, which is about the 97th overall selection.
Mocking the NFL draft is an extremely imperfect exercise, and this data we are working with will change quite a bit. Also, if a team is calling to move up, maybe the Steelers could squeeze a little more out of them instead of making a deal exactly by the book.
The data we are working off wasn’t perfect for the point I am making, but I wasn’t going to doctor the information at hand to try to convince you that the Steelers should strongly consider moving down several spots from the 17th or 32nd selection. The way this played out, snagging Jones in the first round and Forbes in the second is quite attractive.
But, if you continue to play this “Choose Your Own Adventure” game at home, my hunch is that on more than one occasion, moving down would really benefit the Steelers with more mid-round capital in this draft or possibly even a somewhat premium pick in 2024. While it didn’t work out that way in this one example, more often than not, the best move could be making a small trade down with one of the Steelers' first two picks and taking more bites at the draft apple at a variety of positions.