ALTOONA, Pa. -- For years and years, one goal for Penn State basketball has always been to just still be in the mix come late February.
Usually by this time of year, the Nittany Lions don't have much hope of reaching even that goal, let alone reaching the NCAA Tournament.
But here we are this season, with three games left to play, and ... gulp ... Penn State controls its own destiny.
As of Saturday, Joe Lunardi had the Lions as the first team out -- No. 69 overall -- in his bracketology for ESPN, so all Penn State has to do is keep winning and it's in.
The Lions host Rutgers tonight at 6:30 at the Bryce Jordan Center, and it is a MASSIVE game. Then they go to Northwestern on Wednesday before wrapping up the Big Ten regular season with a home game against Maryland on March 5.
Win all three, and Penn State would be firmly in the field of 68 for the NCAA Tournament. The Lions would be 11-9 in the Big Ten and riding a six-game winning streak into the conference tournament. Even a first-round loss there might not knock them out, and winning at least one game definitely would get them in.
But ...
What happens if Penn State loses one of its next three games? That is where things would get very, very interesting.
Here's the good news: All three upcoming games are against good teams, so a win can help the resume, while a loss may not hurt it all that much.
Now, the bad news: These are three good teams, and Penn State could lose at least two or even all three games.
Rutgers is No. 37 in the NCAA NET rankings. Northwestern is No. 38. Maryland is No. 22.
So, beating two of those three opponents would be really good for the Lions' resume, and losing only one of the games may not hurt all that much.
If one of those wins is the Northwestern game, getting that kind of victory on the road would be huge.
OK, so the bottom line here seems to be:
Finish 10-10, and it may take two wins in the Big Ten Tournament to lock up a berth.
Finish 11-9, given how good those wins would be, and it probably locks up a tourney bid.
Can Penn State pull it off? The way Jalen Pickett has been playing, it appears that he is putting the team on his back and trying to will it to the tournament.
Tonight's game against Rutgers will be interesting because the Scarlet Knights have lost four of five and are in desperation mode to secure their own NCAA Tournament fate. Rutgers clobbered Penn State, 65-45, back in Piscataway on Jan. 24, but much has changed for both teams since then.
Penn State is favored tonight by 3 points. Tipoff is at 6:30 on BTN.
