CORAL GABLES, Fla. -- Pitt played itself into a bit of a sticky situation with Wednesday's 88-81 loss at Notre Dame.
Instead of locking up a guaranteed share of the ACC's regular-season championship, the 25th-ranked Panthers are not out of the woods in terms of even earning a double bye for the ACC Tournament, which was a near-forgone conclusion to be reached after their dominant week over Georgia Tech and Syracuse a week ago.
The Panthers are now in danger of potentially missing out on a top-four seed in the ACC Tournament, should they fall at No. 16 Miami Saturday here in Coral Gables. A win over the Hurricanes guarantees Pitt a share of the ACC regular-season title, and Pitt could earn it outright with a win AND if Louisville defeats Virginia Saturday.
But, if the Panthers drop Saturday's game at Miami, it can get hairy in terms of seeding.
Let's look at the potential ACC Tournament seedings Pitt can earn, and the pathways for which it can get there.
Here is the ACC's schedule to close the regular season Saturday:
• Louisville at No. 13 Virginia, 2 p.m., ESPN2.
• Georgia Tech at Boston College, 2:30 p.m., ESPNU.
• Florida State at Virginia Tech, 4 p.m., ESPN2.
• Wake Forest at Syracuse, 5 p.m., ACC Network Extra.
• No. 25 Pitt at No. 16 Miami, 6 p.m., ACC Network.
• Duke at North Carolina, 6:30 p.m., ESPN.
• Notre Dame at Clemson, 8 p.m., ACC Network.
And here are the up-to-the-minute ACC standings:
1. Miami (23-6 overall, 14-5 ACC)
2. Virginia (22-6, 14-5)
3. Pitt (21-9, 14-5)
4. Duke (22-8, 13-6)
5. Clemson (21-9, 13-6)
6. NC State (22-9, 12-8)
7. North Carolina (19-11, 11-8)
8. Wake Forest (18-12, 10-9)
9. Syracuse (16-14, 9-10)
10. Boston College (15-15, 9-10)
11. Virginia Tech (17-13, 7-12)
12. Florida State (9-21, 7-12)
13. Georgia Tech (13-17, 5-14)
14. Notre Dame (11-19, 3-16)
15. Louisville (4-26, 2-17)
Repeating: A Pitt win over Miami Saturday guarantees the Panthers the No. 1 seed in the ACC tournament. That is the lone avenue to the No. 1 seed.
With a win at Miami, the Panthers will earn at least a share of the ACC regular-season title, pending the outcome of Louisville at Virginia. The Panthers have the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Cavaliers for that No. 1 seed by virtue of their 68-65 win Jan. 3.
That, however is the only avenue for Pitt to attain the No. 1 seed. If the Panthers lose to the Hurricanes, fate is out of their hands and the league will decide where the Panthers slot into the ACC Tournament. A loss at Miami allows for probability of the Panthers most likely earning the No. 4 seed, but missing out on that coveted double bye into the ACC Tournament quarterfinal as a top-four seed is still in play.
If Pitt loses at Miami, everything tilts on Virginia, Duke, and Clemson. A tip of the cap goes to Patrick Stevens on Twitter for this breakdown:
Pitt will earn the No. 2 seed in the ACC Tournament if it loses at Miami AND:
• Virginia loses AND EITHER Duke loses OR Clemson loses.
Pitt will earn the No. 3 seed in the ACC Tournament if it loses at Miami AND:
• Virginia wins AND Duke loses AND Clemson loses.
Pitt will earn the No. 4 seed in the ACC Tournament if it loses at Miami AND:
• Virginia wins AND Duke wins AND Clemson loses.
• Virginia wins AND Duke loses AND Clemson wins.
• Virginia loses AND Duke wins AND Clemson wins.
Pitt will earn the No. 5 seed in the ACC Tournament if it loses at Miami AND:
• Virginia, Duke, AND Clemson all win.
The Panthers have the widest range of any team within the ACC in terms of seeding implications during Saturday's games.
Miami and Virginia each have locked in a double bye and can finish no worse than the No. 4 seed. Clemson can be seeded no higher than No. 3 and no lower than No. 5. Duke has a couple of avenues to achieve a seeding as high as No. 3, but the Blue Devils will not be seeded lower than No. 5.
Elsewhere in the ACC, NC State can only earn the No. 6 or No. 7 seed, North Carolina can land anywhere from No. 6 to No. 8, Wake Forest can range from No. 7 to No. 9, Syracuse ranges from No. 8 to No. 10, Boston College can only be No. 9 or No. 10, and the winner of Florida State at Virginia Tech gets the No. 11 seed and the loser gets the No. 12.
Three teams are solidified and already know their seedings into Tuesday's opener of the ACC Tournament. Georgia Tech clinched the No. 13 seed, Notre Dame No. 14, and Louisville No. 15.
So, on Saturday, the 2 p.m. Louisville-Virginia game, the 6:30 p.m. Duke-North Carolina game, and the 8 p.m. Notre Dame-Clemson game are your viewing interests.
Neither of Louisville nor Notre Dame have anything to play for, but that Duke-North Carolina matchup is more of a deal for North Carolina than it is Duke. The Tar Heels are on the NCAA Tournament bubble and are in danger of being the first preseason Associated Press No. 1-ranked team to miss the NCAA Tournament since the field expanded to 64 teams in 1985.
Not to mention, the Panthers are firmly back on the NCAA Tournament bubble following the loss at Notre Dame. A win over Miami would solidify the Panthers' case to make the field, but a loss would not be nearly as detrimental to their chances as the loss at Notre Dame was given how strong of an opponent Miami is.
Duke enters Saturday as the top ACC team in the NCAA NET rankings at No. 23. Virginia is No. 30, Miami is No. 35, NC State is No. 41, North Carolina is No. 44, Pitt is No. 55, and Clemson is No. 64.
This is March!