GREENSBORO, N.C. -- "Yes."
That is the one-word answer Jeff Capel gave when I asked him if Pitt did enough to build an NCAA Tournament resume and qualify for the big dance.
We will see if the selection committee agrees come Selection Sunday, which is three days from the point of Pitt's 96-66 loss to Duke in an ACC Tournament quarterfinal on Thursday at Greensboro Coliseum.
Now, with all of the Panthers' play all said and done, did they earn their One Shining Moment?
Pitt undoubtedly played itself back onto the bubble with respect to its NCAA Tournament resume, which has fluctuated throughout this final stretch to the season and throughout the nation's conference tournament week.
As of this posting, here is where Pitt stands in a few of the up-to-the-minute Bracketology projections:
• ESPN's Joe Lunardi: "Last four byes," as a No. 11 seed. That designation means the Panthers would be among the last four teams to avoid playing in the First Four in Dayton, Ohio.
• CBS Sports' Jerry Palm: No. 9 seed, though this was not updated Thursday evening after Pitt's loss to Duke.
• Heat Check CBB's Lukas Harkins: "Last four in," as a No. 11 seed in the First Four.
• SB Nation's Chris Dobbertean: "Last four in," as a No. 11 seed in the First Four.
Added Dobbertean: "Not a great final impression by the Panthers, who I’ve dropped slightly. One team that needs to root against potential bid thieves over the next three and a half days."
I ran a poll on Twitter to gauge your reaction. Voting closes around 5:30 p.m. Friday, so there is still time to give your input:
POLL:
— Corey Crisan (@cdcrisan) March 9, 2023
Does #Pitt make the NCAA Tournament? If so, where?
The point here is, Pitt is currently on the right side by projections, but it will likely need some help to get in, as Dobbertean states above.
Here are the reactions from the Pitt players which I spoke to after Thursday's game about whether the team did enough to earn a bid into the NCAA Tournament:
• Jamarius Burton: "We definitely fit that mold. I mean, we've got a team full of competitors. Every time we have an opportunity to play against a big team we always compete, and I feel like if we get into that dance we'll do the same thing, and that's compete at a high level."
• Nelly Cummings: "I think we've proven who we are all year long. It is what it is. We'll just have to wait and see on Sunday."
• Nike Sibande: "I know for a fact we're a really good team, and I feel like we deserve to be in the NCAA Tournament. We're going to be ready to play. That's all I'm going to say. We're going to be ready to play."
• Federiko Federiko: "I feel like we deserve to be in the Tournament. We are a different team than what we showed today. A lot of a different team."
Let's make no mistake, if Pitt wanted to stay completely out of this conversation of "if" it is an NCAA Tournament bid-worthy team, the result from Thursday was the worst it could have done to itself.
It was Pitt's second loss by 30 or more points this season. The other was the 91-60 defeat to Michigan in the third game of its season at the Legends Classic in Brooklyn.
Pitt surrendered more than 90 points for the second time this season Thursday, with the other instance being that loss to Michigan. The Panthers have allowed 80 or more points in four of their last five games, with the exception being Saturday's 78-76 loss at Miami. Pitt is 2-2 in those four games, which include wins over Syracuse and Georgia Tech and losses to Notre Dame and Duke.
Pitt entered Thursday with an NCAA NET Ranking of 56, and the loss to Duke dropped it to 67 Friday after giving it a record in Quadrant 1 of 4-4. Pitt is 7-5 on the road and 1-3 in neutral games while maintaining a 3-5 record against Quadrant 2 teams, 5-1 record against Quad 3, and 10-1 record against Quad 4.
So, a team which is trending downward as tournament week closes will need some of that external help, but which teams are on the bubble alongside it? (NET rankings are as of Friday morning.)
• North Carolina, NET 47: The Tar Heels bowed out of the ACC Tournament with a loss to Virginia, and at 1-9 in Quad 1 should miss the NCAA Tournament. It would be the first preseason Associated Press No. 1 team to miss the NCAA Tournament since the field expanded to 64 in 1985.
Lunardi on the Tar Heels' Tournament chances on ESPN TV following their loss to Virginia: "In a word, no. ... I just can't find a scenario where theyhave enough quality wins. ... They're just not going to make it."
• Rutgers, NET 38: The Scarlet Knights beat Michigan in the second round of the Big Ten Tournament and will face Purdue at noon Friday in a quarterfinal. Rutgers is 5-6 in Quad 1 games in a strong Big Ten. (Lunardi: Last four in as of Thursday night.)
• Penn State, NET 54: The Lions might have played their way in with a win over Illinois Thursday. Up next for them is a quarterfinal matchup with Northwestern Friday at 6:30 p.m. Penn State is 5-6 in Quad 1 games. (Lunardi: Last four in.)
• Iowa State, NET 17: The Big 12 is perceived as the best conference in college basketball, and the Cyclones beat Baylor (NET 12) in a quarterfinal game in the Big 12 Tournament Thursday. Up next is Kansas at 7 p.m. Friday in the semifinals. Iowa State is 9-10 in Quad 1 games.
• Oklahoma State, NET 42: The Cowboys lost to Texas in the quarterfinals of the Big 12 Tournament Thursday. They are 6-11 in Quad 1 games. (Lunardi: Last four in.)
• Mississippi State, NET 46: The Bulldogs beat Florida in overtime in an SEC Tournament second-round game and will meet Alabama in the quarterfinals Friday at 1 p.m. Mississippi State is 4-7 in Quad 1 games.
• Utah State, NET 18: Utah State beat New Mexico in a Mountain West Tournament quarterfinal late Thursday night. The Aggies are 1-4 in Quad 1 games. (Lunardi: Last four in.)
• Arizona State, NET 60: The Sun Devils beat USC in a Pac-12 Tournament quarterfinal to further strengthen their resume. Arizona State is 4-5 in Quad 1 games. (Lunardi: First four out.)
• Nevada, NET 39: The Wolfpack's loss to San Jose State in the Mountain West Tournament surely helps Pitt. Nevada is 4-5 in Quad 1 games. (Lunardi: First four out.)
• Wisconsin, NET 81: The Badgers are likely out after losing to Ohio State in the first round of the Big Ten Tournament Wednesday. (Lunardi: First four out.)
I would put Pitt in the NCAA Tournament, but that cut line for the First Four round in Dayton is awfully close for comfort given the Panthers' recent swoon. Pitt has some excellent wins on its resume, including over Northwestern, NC State, Virginia, North Carolina (twice), and Miami, and those cannot and should not get overlooked. If the Panthers miss out on the Tournament, it will be because of the blowout losses to West Virginia and Michigan to begin the season and then the book-ending of the losses to Notre Dame and Duke to close the season. Recency bias might unfortunately kick in, but if the NCAA Tournament selection committee goes by the NET and analytics and analyzes Pitt's resume as a whole, it will see Pitt fit as a Tournament team, whether that means it goes to Dayton or it gets a bye into the Round of 64.
"I'm super proud of our guys," Federiko said. "We had a tough start, and we changed it with a couple of wins. I'm so proud of our guys."