The NHL's draft lottery is May 8 at 8 p.m.
The Penguins are in the lottery, but they are not in the Connor Bedard sweepstakes. That's a result of changes the NHL made to the lottery system in 2021. Now, there are only two drawings instead of three, so only two opportunities for teams to jump ahead in the order as a result of being drawn. Teams can also only move up a maximum of 10 spots in the order.
The Penguins have the third-best record among the 16 teams who missed the playoffs, which gives them the 14th-best odds in the lottery. The Ducks narrowly finished with the best possible odds, in part thanks to the Penguins failing to beat the Blackhawks and Blue Jackets to close out the regular season.
1. Ducks, 18.5%
2. Blue Jackets, 13.5%
3. Blackhawks, 11.5%
4. Sharks, 9.5%
5. Canadiens, 8.5%
6. Coyotes, 7.5%
7. Flyers, 6.5%
8. Capitals, 6%
9. Red Wings, 5%
10. Blues, 3.5%
11. Canucks, 3%
12. Senators, 2.5%
13. Sabres, 2%
14. Penguins, 1.5%
15. Flames, 0.5%
16. Predators, 0.5%
Since only the teams with the top 11 best odds are eligible for Bedard, if one of the teams outside the top 11 get drawn first, then that team would just jump ahead 10 spots and the No. 1 pick would still belong to the Ducks. That means that the Ducks' odds of winning the No. 1 overall pick are actually 25.5%, when you include all the odds of teams that cannot jump all the way up to No 1.
The Penguins' 1.5% odds aren't for the No. 1 overall pick. They have a 1.5% chance of moving up 10 spots to the No. 4 overall pick. However, if the Penguins' ball is drawn and a team between fourth and 13th is the other ball drawn, then the Penguins would pick fifth. If the Flames or Predators are one of the teams to move up, then the Penguins would drop to 15th. If both the Flames and Predators are the two teams to move up, then the Penguins would drop to 16th.
Between the Blue Jackets, Flyers and Capitals all having a shot at No. 1 overall, there is a 26% chance that Bedard will end up on a Metropolitan Division rival.
The draft is June 28-29 in Nashville, Tenn.