Fact or fiction? Penn State will contend for national title this year

UNIVERSITY PARK, Pa. -- There's a tremendous amount of excitement surrounding Penn State football these days, and more and more we've started to hear these two words mentioned as a possibility:

National. Championship.

OK, so let's dive into that in this first edition of what will be a recurring feature: Fact or fiction?

Q: Penn State will contend for a national title in 2023!

Verdict: Fiction

Alrighty, everybody. Let's slow your roll on this particular prediction, which at this point is more in the hope phase than reality phase.

It's mid-April, spring ball just ended, and I'm not hear to burst anyone's bubble about a team that will be ranked in the preseason top 10. Truly, I'm not.

It would be spectacular if, in fact, the Nittany Lions do come out this fall and tear their way through the Big Ten on the way to their first College Football Playoff berth. That's the key part of this question here, too, is laying down the criteria for what would constitute contending for a national title.

For me, it's actually getting into the playoff. Not coming close. Not being ranked in the top five early on, which very well could happen with a good start.

No, to actually contend for a national championship means to have a seat at the table when everything will be decided.

Penn State will indeed get into the playoff, and I'm very confident in saying that. Next year!

But not this year.

Without a doubt, a lot of the pieces are in place on both sides of the ball to believe this group of Lions could have a legitimate shot at a national title. But to think it will happen this year is premature, because there are still just too many unknowns at this stage.

Here are three big ones:

1. Drew Allar might be really, really good. Heck, he might even be awesome. But then again, he might not be, and we all need to be prepared for that possibility.

Just because a guy has all the physical tools and hype doesn't necessarily mean he will be a great quarterback. And just because Penn State fans want Allar to be a great quarterback doesn't mean he will meet all the lofty expectations.

Allar will be a first-year starter this fall. We should expect a lot of ups and downs as he learns all the ins and outs of how to be a star on the field each and every week, as well as be the face of the franchise off the field.

He could end up having a fantastic season in a lot of ways, and yet still not be able to beat Ohio State in Columbus, which very well could determine once again if Penn State can win the Big Ten and make the playoff.

2. None of these guys have any idea what it takes to win at the kind of level necessary to compete for a national title.

Not yet.

We should not forget that Penn State beat nobody during the regular season in 2022. Not a single ranked opponent. Yes, the Lions won 10 games, but that was about as hollow of a 10-win regular season as you'll ever see in the Big Ten.

Yes, the Lions beat Utah in the Rose Bowl. And looked terrific doing so. But how good was Utah? That was the Utes' fourth loss, for crying out loud, and who knows how things might have turned out if their QB hadn't gotten injured (although I still believe Penn State would have won).

Point is, not a single player on this Penn State team has ever beaten Ohio State, let alone won in Columbus, where this year's game will be played.

I've said all along that 2023 will be spent for the core group of Allar, Nicholas Singleton, Kaytron Allen, Abdul Carter and Kalen King to take a big step toward understanding what it takes to beat the very best teams throughout the season. And then 2024 will be the year when that group -- likely without King, who may be off the NFL -- could lead the way to national title contention.

3. There's a very good chance the team will not have a legitimate No. 1 wide receiver this year.

KeAndre Lambert-Smith should be a lot better, but he would need to improve an enormous amount to go from being a decent No. 3 last year to a legit No. 1 guy in the Big Ten.

Dante Cephas could be the guy. The Kent State transfer has a lot of experience, but he will be stepping up big time in competition week after week from the MAC to the Big Ten, and nobody should necessarily be assuming he'll automatically be a 70-catch guy for Penn State.

In conclusion ...

Alright, alright, what I don't want to do here is appear to be so negative, because I really do believe Penn State will be very good this year. I've already picked the Lions to go 10-2.

But what people need to understand is that, in a lot of ways, the difference between going 10-2 and actually contending for a national title can be light years apart. Again, Penn State went 10-2 in 2022, and aside from playing very well for 51 minutes in a loss to Ohio State at home, the team gave us little reason to believe it actually could have given the likes of Georgia or Alabama a good game.

Can I reiterate again that I simply cannot believe Michigan lost to TCU in the national semifinal? The same Michigan team that ran over Penn State in a blowout and yet looked abysmal in so many ways against the Horned Frogs. Wow.

Let's see what Allar can do. Let's see if everybody can stay healthy. Let's see if the young guys have another great year or if they suffer a sophomore slump. Let's see how the team plays in Columbus. Let's see how the receiver situation pans out.

IF all of those things work out tremendously well, then sure, Penn State could find a way into the playoff.

But that's a whole lot of wishful thinking to a whole lot of big questions.

BACK TO BORING ANSWERS

A couple of players got loose a few weeks ago and talked about their goal is to win a national championship. First there was left tackle Olu Fashanu.

And safety Jaylen Reed said, "I want to win a national championship."

Well, we haven't heard many Penn State players talk like that over the years, because of James Franklin's insistence on keeping the 1-0 mentality.

Sure enough, after the Blue-White Game on Saturday, it was back to the usual boring answers from players when it came to expectations.

"1-0 mentality, we're gonna get bigger, faster, stronger throughout the summer and get ready for West Virginia," Singleton said.

Pardon me for a second ...

Yaaaaaaawn.

I followed up by asking Singleton if people need to slow down a bit with the expectation talk.

"We have big expectations this year," he said, "but Coach Franklin's been telling us, 'Keep that 1-0 mentality, get ready for West Virginia.'"

Is that difficult?

"Not really, no," Singleton said. "We just stay true to ourselves, just keep our head down, keep working."

Carter came up with pretty much the same boring answer.

"Just get better every day," he said. "You don't want to think too much in the future because then you can lose yourself. So just focus on the moment right now."

My hunch is Franklin, after seeing some of those national championship comments and being asked about them, probably told everybody on the team to knock it off with that stuff.

Because the only thing that matters to Franklin is, of course, the sacred 1-0 mentality.

SEIDER LANDS ANTOTHER BIG RECRUIT

Penn State picked up an impressive prospect Sunday when 4-star running back Kiandrea Barker from The Woodlands High School in Texas committed for the class of 2025.

Barker (5-11, 183) is rated the No. 10 prospect in Texas, the No. 9 running back in the nation and No. 75 overall prospect for 2025 by 247Sports. He chose Penn State over Pitt, Florida State, Miami, Ole Miss and Mississippi State.

To get a highly rated running back out of Texas is huge for the Lions. And it shouldn't be a big surprise to know that he was recruited by running backs coach Ja'Juan Seider, who continues to be Penn State's best recruiter.

Goodness, just check out Seider's list of top all-time recruits, and it's no wonder he's one of the best recruiters in the nation. He's landed seven top-100 recruits during his Penn State tenure. These are the other six to go along with Barker:

• RB Nicholas Singleton
• OL Alex Birchmeier
• RB Devyn Ford
• LB Tony Rojas
• S King Mack
• RB Noah Cain

Oh, and Seider also landed running back Kaytron Allen from Florida, then coached him and Singleton to fantastic seasons in 2022.

GOOD NEWS FOR HOOPS

I haven't written much about the great job Mike Rhoades has done since taking over as basketball coach. But he certainly deserves credit for righting the ship in a hurry from a roster standpoint.

Ace Baldwin, the Atlantic 10 Player of the Year, is coming with Rhoades from VCU, along with Nick Kern Jr. Baldwin was a huge get for Penn State, as he averaged 12.7 points, 5.8 assists and 2.2 steals last season.

Monday, Jameel Brown announced that he is exiting the transfer portal and will remain at Penn State. Brown had been committed to Purdue when Micah Shrewsberry was an assistant there, then followed Shrewsberry to Penn State. Brown was not much of a factor for the Lions this past season, appearing in only 14 games and averaging 4.6 minutes and less than 1 point per game.

Still, having Brown stick around is key. Point guard Kanye Clary also announced he will be returning to Penn State, so there at least will be a workable roster in place next season.

Kebba Njie and Evan Mahaffey remain in the transfer portal.

GREAT TO SEE

This was an uplifting post Monday from former Penn State and NFL linebacker Tim Shaw, who is battling ALS.

It's great to see Shaw doing well, and the very best of wishes to him and his family.

NOTE FROM GIGER

I realize not everyone listens to the We Are podcast, so if you didn't hear it this week, you're probably not aware of this.

I am no longer full time here at DKPS, and have instead gone back to a part-time role. Which means that the Penn State coverage will be scaled back.

It's not an ideal situation, and I've already heard from several readers about it -- all offering up some very nice words.

The truth is, I love being part of DKPS and would like to remain here covering Penn State football the way I want to cover it for as long as possible. DK has allowed me great freedom to write the kind of stories I want to write, and I am forever grateful for that.

Sports journalism is not an easy business. Things change. We all have to adapt.

The plan for me going forward here is to write two Penn State stories a week for the time being, plus a Live Qs feature every so often. That number will bump up some during the football season. But there won't be stories every day like we had throughout the 2022 season.

What you'll see will be a lot of like what you've just read above. I'll keep track of all the important happenings at Penn State and compile them together in the two stories I write each week. There will be a whole lot of analysis and commentary, as well, to go along with the news updates.

I also plan to keep doing the We Are podcast every Sunday morning.

This part is VERY IMPORTANT:

Keep commenting on these Penn State stories! Every day.

I won't be writing as many stories, but you can still keep in touch and ask questions by going to my latest story. We can keep up a good dialogue that way throughout the week.

I don't plan to go anywhere, as long as people here keep enjoying reading my coverage.