WASHINGTON -- There's a lot of season remaining. That goes without saying. But it might not be premature to start thinking this Pirates team is trending towards contention.
Never overlook an opponent, but assuming the Pirates take care of business this weekend against the Nationals, it looks like next week's matchup between the Pirates and Rays could feature the two teams with the best records in their respective leagues. There's still a lot of season remaining, but things usually turn out pretty well for teams that start 18-8.
Of the 47 teams in the wild card era that won at least 18 of their first 26 games, 43 of them finished with a winning record (91.5%) and nearly two-thirds of them (31) reached the postseason. FanGraphs' projection system currently has them finishing with 81.5 wins with a 28.4% chance at the postseason. After back-to-back 100-loss seasons, reaching those projections would be a huge step for the organization and increasingly confident team.
“We believe in each other," Duane Underwood Jr. told me. "We believe in ourselves. We’ve got to keep playing good baseball. Pirate baseball.”
But what needs to happen to maintain this hot start? Well, for starters ...
1. MORE STARTING PITCHING
A year ago, Pirate starters amassed just 38 quality starts, the third-fewest in baseball. Perhaps some of that had to do with their early season hybrid strategy, but it doesn't seem likely, because in 2021 they had just 25 quality starts all year.
This year, they already have 16 quality starts, the most in baseball. They're 13-3 in those games and just 5-5 whenever the starter doesn't go at least six innings of three-run ball or better.
"I think the key to it is starting pitching," Derek Shelton said. "When your starting pitching is as consistent as ours has been, we give ourselves a chance to win games."
The bullpen has performed admirably thus far, but they've been helped in large part by that rotation eating innings and putting up zeros. The rotation has the 7th-best ERA (3.72) and had the second-most innings pitched in baseball entering Friday (145 1/3). Continuing to do that can shorten games and give the backend of the bullpen more chances to seal wins.
2. MORE ... HARD-HITTING?
A year ago, the Pirates had the second-worst team strikeout rate and ranked in the bottom half in hard-hit percentage. No team has seen their strikeout rate drop more from 2022 to 2023 than this team (25.3% to 20.8%), and only the Angels have seen their hard-hit rate rise higher (37.3% to 43.6%).
To single out a few players who have taken a leap in these areas, Jack Suwinski's hard hit rate has gone from 40% to 50% (with a significant jump in walks to bolster his on-base percentage). Ke'Bryan Hayes has started slow, but his strikeout rate has dropped more than half, from 21.8% to 10.4%. Hayes, Connor Joe, Bryan Reynolds and Rodolfo Castro are all averaging at least 47.7% hard-hit rates. That's more than half of a normal lineup making hard contact on half of their batted balls. That's a recipe for success. And that's without their projected shortstop, Oneil Cruz, in the lineup.
This offense is going to rely on creating runs in different ways, like stealing bases and being aggressive on the basepaths, but they don't need to rely solely on small ball. There's some thump in the lineup, something that couldn't have been said these last couple years.
3. STAY (MOSTLY) HEALTHY
The Pirates haven't exactly been healthy so far. Losing Cruz may be the biggest blow, but it goes beyond him. JT Brubaker was supposed to be a big part of this rotation and Mike Burrows was set to make his debut this year. They're both out for the season after undergoing UCL reconstruction surgery. Ji-Man Choi is on the 60-day injured list. Jarlín García, their big free agent signing this winter, hasn't been able to grab a baseball since mid-spring and doesn't have a timetable for a return.
So far, the Pirates have been able to absorb those blows. Johan Oviedo has been stellar in his first five starts. Rule 5 pick Jose Hernandez has been able to handle left-handers. McCutchen and Joe have elevated their games to surpass what was originally expected out of the 1B/DH Choi. Castro has filled in nicely at shortstop in the interim.
This is a deeper ball club than recent years, which is a big reason why they have started so strong. It's inevitable they'll need to pull from that depth again, and there are some good players still waiting in the minors waiting for a shot. But how deep is that well, and how much can you realistically expect from someone making their major-league debut, even if it is a top prospect like Endy Rodriguez or Luis Ortiz? Their backs aren't up against the wall, but if they are hit with several more lengthy injuries in May, that could change.
4. KEEP COOL
There are still five months to go in the season. This has been a great start, but there's still plenty of baseball remaining. So don't look too far ahead quite yet, even if the early signs are encouraging.
"I love the way Shelty keeps talking about this. Next pitch," Ben Cherington said. "Just try to stay in the moment as best we possibly can."
This group has shied away from saying things like "statement series" or "statement wins." But if they show they can continue to take care of business against teams they should beat (Nationals) and a premier team like the Rays, then the win-loss column will do the talking for them.