MILWAUKEE -- If it could be condensed to a formula, it'd probably look like this:
1. Call up the top talent
2. Play the top talent
3. Joy!
And it could be called, say, the Cincinnati formula. Meaning that, once upon a time, like a month ago, the Reds remained well on their predicted, maybe even predetermined path toward 100 losses. And then, one happy day, the team performed a bit better. And the Central Division stayed stagnant. And their prospects were faring well enough to be promoted. And -- here's the wacky part -- those prospects actually were promoted. And now that all they do is high-five each other anymore, soaring within a whisker of first place ... yeah, joy:
🔴 7 dubs in a row
— Cincinnati Reds (@Reds) June 17, 2023
🔴 Winners in 10 of the last 12
🔴 5th straight road series win#ATOBTTR pic.twitter.com/haTLxZA15j
Stirring stuff, huh?
No, not the Reds. I couldn't care less about the Reds. Just the simplicity of the process.
I don't believe for a second that either Ben Cherington or Derek Shelton hate joy. Their personalities are hardly a match, but they're both engaging, both fun and, believe it or not, they're both competitive.
I do believe, though, that they're both overthinking pretty much everything about the process through which the Pirates can become winners.
And I further believe that their 5-0 blanking by the Brewers on this very Saturday at American Family Field, one that dropped them below .500 at 34-35, one that dropped them behind both Milwaukee and Cincinnati and, at the risk of repetition, one that dripped of so much of the same stench we've all witnessed over these past seven weeks ... enough's enough.
I appreciated Cherington's candor when he brought up earlier this month that his internal analytics people hadn't forecast the Pirates to be as competitive as they've been. For one, such methodology's common in modern professional sports and, for another, I'll always welcome honesty. He was making a general point about the status of the organization, and he cited that to support it.
But dude ... a prophecy doesn't need to be self-fulfilling. And, staying on that same path, a prophecy doesn't need to follow some arbitrary, preordained timeline.
If the team that you're generally managing erupts to a 20-8 start, don't treat it like a quirk. Treat it like a blessing.
If that team loses its most gifted athlete in the opening week, as occurred with Oneil Cruz, make every effort to replace that player, even if it requires an external move.
If that team's the beneficiary of being in a division that just might be Major League Baseball's worst, if that franchise hasn't put up a new pennant at PNC Park since it opened, if that city's palpably dying for a winner, at least consider that success in the present might be as valuable as success in the future. If not more so, since it'll be accompanied by bona fide momentum.
There can't be a soul outside southwestern Ohio, for instance, who'd think the Reds will win it all in 2023. They remain deeply flawed at most positions, doubly so with their pitching. But that positive vibe, on and off the field, can mean so much, as the Pirates themselves began to experience in April. Particularly at the player level, where they'll feel better about themselves, the instruction they're receiving, the culture that's being built, so much more.
I'll reiterate my belief that Cherington wants to win, and that he wants to win it all. But I'll do so within the context that he wants to work on his own clock and that, because of that, he won't pull any trigger before its time. It's almost an all-or-nothing approach, as if he's got some year in mind -- maybe when Henry Davis, Endy Rodriguez and more of the younger pitchers are closer to their prime, maybe upon the arrival of elite prospects like Termarr Johnson and this summer's pending No. 1 overall draft pick -- and that anything short of a pristine stage isn't worthwhile.
None of these scenarios are precluded by succeeding right now, though. They just aren't. No one's suggesting trading prospects for veterans at this stage. No one's suggesting -- OK, not many are suggesting -- promoting prospects before they're legit ready. And no one, no one, no one is suggesting anything akin to some all-in, headfirst plunge into a multiplied payroll.
Call up the top talent. Scratch that first item off the list.
Davis is with Class AAA Indianapolis right next door in Des Moines, Iowa. Cherington's here on this trip. Have whatever discussions need to be had, get on the horn, and get him to Pittsburgh in ample time for the Monday rematch with the Cubs, who are also somehow in this race.
From there, keep the same open mind regarding Rodriguez, whose season stats still aren't enticing with a .241 average, a .697 OPS and just four home runs, but he's hit the ball far more solidly in June, including his outs. Ditto for Quinn Priester, who undoubtedly would've beaten Osvaldo Bido to the bigs if only someone could convince him to stop leaning on his offspeed arsenal.
But Davis ... I'm sorry, but it's absurd that he's not already up. I know about precedents, I know about his injury in 2022, and I don't care. He's 24, he's a No. 1 overall pick, and his defense isn't a priority over his offense.
Make the call. Or calls.
Shelton's case is, of course, more complex. As it's been since he was hired, since he'd always be handcuffed to any rebuilding period of any length and, thus, it'd take forever to evaluate him.
I'm getting there.
He's a good man, and I'd like to think in April he began to show that he could be a good manager in a competitive environment. Handled the pitchers adroitly, filled out lineup cards that clicked, had the baserunning game freaking out opponents, even put together fundamentals in the field. I know it seems like forever ago, but it did happen. And maybe more relevant than any of that, he had the clubhouse brimming with a confidence no one could've foreseen.
But then, there's this ...
This game, my friends, was crap. Front to finish. It was an L from the first pitch onward, with Mitch Keller being a bit erratic and allowing a two-run home run to Joey Wiemer and a two-run double to Rowdy Tellez, and the offense just did what it does with six hits, only one for extra bases, and three walks.
But that Austin Hedges at-bat up there, that first-pitch popup that'd travel a dozen whole feet to his counterpart, that's from the eighth inning in which the Pirates loaded the bases after two outs. And yeah, Hedges hit for himself. Representing the tying run and the only plausible hope left.
I asked Shelton afterward why, if he's pinch-hit for Hedges in other similar circumstances, he didn't here:
"Milner, left-handed," he began, referring to Milwaukee reliever Hoby Milner. "We ran into a spot kind of with where our bench was. We were really left-handed. That’s a tough left-on-left at-bat. That’s kind of a function of where our roster is right now. They were getting left-on-left because Milner has to face that guy based on when he came in. It wasn’t like we’ve got a situation where, if we hit, they’re gonna go to a right-hander. With Milner having to face him, it’s a little bit of a function of where our roster is right now."
Jack Suwinski, Tucupita Marcano and Josh Palacios were available. All hit left-handed. Shelton didn't mention Jason Delay, the backup catcher who hits right-handed, but I wouldn't have sent him up there if my life depended on it after his embarrassing final out the previous night, also with bases loaded.
So, fair stance?
Eh. Yes and no, as I see it. The lefty thing's real. Hedges (.158 average this season) is terrible against them, but so are Suwinski (.191), Marcano (.182) and, to an extent, Palacios (.250 in only eight at-bats).
At the same time, this underscores an area in which I've long felt Shelton lacks, and that's the ability to just go with the gut.
Every solitary soul on the field, in both dugouts and maybe even a healthy percentage of the 37,283 paying customers, knew that at-bat would end in failure. Heck, the stats are blaring right up there on the big board. And what's more, there had to be the same awareness that a home run was needed. And that Suwinski's .191, in that equation, is not only better than Hedges' .158, but he also comes with at least the prayer of running into one.
Manage to win.
Generally manage to win.
And start by analyzing this uniquely compelling slice of data I'll copy and paste here for everyone's convenience:
MLB.com
THE ESSENTIALS
• Boxscore
• Live file
• Standings
• Statistics
• Schedule
• Scoreboard
THE HIGHLIGHTS
THE INJURIES
• 15-day injured list: RHP Colin Holderman (wrist), LHP Rob Zastryzny (forearm), RHP Vince Velasquez (elbow)
• 60-day injured list: 1B Ji-Man Choi (Achilles), RHP Wil Crowe (shoulder), RHP JT Brubaker (elbow), SS Oneil Cruz (ankle), LHP Jarlin Garcia (elbow), RHP Max Kranick (elbow)
THE LINEUPS
Shelton's card:
1. Andrew McCutchen, DH
2. Bryan Reynolds, LF
3. Connor Joe, RF
4. Carlos Santana, 1B
5. Ke'Bryan Hayes, 3B
6. Rodolfo Castro, SS
7. Ji Hwan Bae, CF
8. Mark Mathias, 2B
9. Austin Hedges, C
And for Craig Counsell's Crew:
1. Christian Yelich, LF
2. Jesse Winker, DH
3. Willy Adames, SS
4. Rowdy Tellez, 1B
5. Luis Urias, 2B
6. Raimel Tapia, RF
7. Brian Anderson, 3B
8. Victor Caratini, C
9. Joey Wiemer, CF
THE SCHEDULE
The series finale Sunday has Luis Ortiz (1-3, 4.64) facing fellow righty Freddy Peralta (5-6, 4.73), 2:10 p.m. Eastern first pitch.
THE CONTENT