Halicke: Why taking the over on the Steelers is a safe bet

Despite a horrid 2-6 start to the season, the Steelers finished the 2022 campaign with a 9-8 record, rewarding those who bet the over on the 7.5 win total set by Las Vegas.

This year, the Steelers' win total is set at 8.5, reinforcing the belief that the team will improve in 2023. But, is it a safe bet to take the over? After all, that's saying -- regardless of any circumstances that can play out during the season -- the Steelers will at least replicate the same record as they did a season ago.

Last year, we witnessed what happens to the Steelers' defense when T.J. Watt misses nearly half the season and is hampered by injury for several more games. We also witnessed first hand how long it can take an offensive line to jell and how rough a quarterback transition can be. But, we also witnessed the Steelers form an identity on offense, which is far more important than finding a new offensive coordinator. 

Having a clear direction going forward on offense, having a healthy Watt back in the fold and all the work Omar Khan put into filling out the roster is why 91% of bets and 98% of the money on BetMGM is on the Steelers to go over their win total in 2023. And, I'm also on board with betting the over.

But, let's dive into the reasons why.

This is hardly a reason, but I think it's important to know where this rationale is coming from. This isn't buying into any hype. I always call it like I see it, and last year I was right on the money with how the Steelers' season would play out: Finishing 9-8 and barely missing the playoffs.

While I'm not quite ready to give my final prediction for the Steelers' record and/or playoff fate in 2023 (there's still all of training camp and preseason to go), I'm confident enough in what I've seen and heard so far to predict the Steelers will win at least nine games again, perhaps even more.

First, it all starts with the quarterback. Kenny Pickett has to improve in Year 2, and his growth down the stretch last season is very encouraging. After throwing two touchdowns and eight interceptions in his first five NFL games, Pickett threw five touchdowns and one interception in 224 attempts during the team's final nine games of the season. As Matt Williamson pointed out in his latest War Room piece, Pickett's 88.9 grade on Pro Football Focus from Week 12 to the end of the season was the best in the NFL. Better than Patrick Mahomes. Better than Josh Allen. Better than Joe Burrow. Better than Jalen Hurts.

While it's pretty much impossible to pick up where he left off, given the roster turnover and length of the NFL offseason, Pickett has done everything in his control to build off of it. He's worked out with all of his receivers throughout the offseason. First, it was a trip to Diontae Johnson's neck of the woods in Miami prior to the draft, then he even spent the week prior to his wedding on June 24 working out with fellow New Jersey native and newcomer Allen Robinson.

"He's trying to slow it down a little bit more. Really trying to see what he's looking at out there," Johnson told me during OTAs. "When we were throwing down in Miami, I could see him just taking his time, going through his progressions, making sure he was leading us, getting the timing down with each of us. He looked pretty good."

Building that rapport with all of his weapons is critical because the Steelers have perhaps one of the more underrated receiving corps in the league. Despite his perceived regression last season (here's much more on that), Johnson is still one of the best at getting open in the NFL. Adding Robinson to the fold gives Pickett experience and poise in the slot. Pat Freiermuth is one of the best receiving tight ends in football. 

And, of course, we can't forget about George Pickens, who could very well become a superstar in this league. He was another receiver who was very appreciative of the work Pickett did before players began the first phase of offseason workouts.

"It's super important," Pickens said during OTAs. "Last year wasn't so bad. It was just (working through) communication, timing and stuff like that. With us working in the offseason -- with the other group of guys, as well -- on that timing and communication, that chemistry is really going to help us."

So much attention goes on the quarterback because it's necessary for success in today's NFL. But, the Steelers' commitment to the running game can open up everything else for Pickett to grow as much as possible in Year 2. If the Steelers can run at a similar clip of 146 yards per game as they did during the second half of the season, that should make everything easier in the passing game, including the red zone -- the area on offense that requires the most significant improvement.

Running the football shouldn't be all that difficult for this offense. The duo of Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren is a 1-2 punch that just about any team would covet. Each runners' styles are similar enough to fit into the zone-heavy scheme, but different enough to keep defenses on their heels. And, the offensive line has been retooled enough to become a top-10 unit in the NFL. If Mason Cole is potentially the worst of a starting five up front, it's a strong group.

On defense, it's obvious much of what the Steelers do very well rests on Watt's availability. That couldn't have been more evident than is was last season. Despite Cam Heyward putting up yet another outstanding season and Alex Highsmith recording a career high of 14.5 sacks, the Steelers simply did not get after the quarterback nearly enough last season. If Watt is available -- and truly healthy -- for even 13 or 14 games, the Steelers have all of the necessary personnel to finish near the top of the league in sacks.

It's critical that the Steelers get back to that form. Everything in their system relies on putting pressure on the quarterback. And, Khan pulled off two moves to better prepare for Watt's absence should he miss multiple games with injuries again. Adding Markus Golden in free agency gives the Steelers much needed experience as the third option behind Watt and Highsmith. Golden's recorded 47 sacks over his eight-year career, which gives the Steelers the most amount of potential for production from a trio on the edge since Highsmith backed up Watt and Bud Dupree in 2020. And, just in case Golden doesn't have what it takes anymore, the Steelers drafted Nick Herbig, an accomplished pass rusher out of Wisconsin, which sounds all too familiar.

The Steelers' significant improvement against the run last year (finishing ninth in run defense after finishing dead last in 2021) makes me feel a whole lot better about how they could fare in 2023, especially Larry Ogunjobi re-signed in free agency to pair with Heyward up front. Then, DeMarvin Leal as a potential third option behind them -- much like Chris Wormley was last season -- is an encouraging sign as he showed the most amount of promise in a 3-technique as a rookie, and that should light a fire under Isaiahh Loudermilk to fight for a roster spot. While the Steelers' weakest position up front is at nose tackle, there are a lot of options to go through during training camp and preseason, including Montravius Adams, Armon Watts, Breiden Fehoko and second-round pick Keeanu Benton.

How well the defense does up front will trickle down to the secondary, which saw a bit of an overhaul during free agency and the draft. Patrick Peterson now fills the void left by Cam Sutton, though ideally the Steelers would likely be better off if they were to have found a way to bring Sutton back given his versatility to play outside and in the slot. But, Peterson still intercepted seven passes with the Vikings last season, which is a good indicator that there is still good football left in him. Then, Khan added to the cornerback group in the draft by selecting Joey Porter Jr. and Cory Trice Jr., both of whom stand a chance to earn significant playing time as rookies.

And, while Khan wasn't able to bring Terrell Edmunds back, he re-signed Damontae Kazee and added Keanu Neal in free agency to maintain the desired flexibility to deploy the three-safety package in 2023.

The biggest wildcard on defense could be the cornerback position, given the unpredictability regarding rookies and Peterson's age. However, the overhaul at off-ball linebacker takes the cake here. Only Mark Robinson remains from last year's group, and he played meaningful defensive snaps in only two games in 2022. Cole Holcomb, Elandon Roberts and Tanner Muse certainly bring a level of intrigue that this group could be better then the collection of Devin Bush, Myles Jack and Robert Spillane. But, this group is truly unproven until we see them on the field. Remember, this is the group that is most responsible for pre-snap communication. It's a vital position and could elevate or drag down the defense as a whole.

Overall, the Steelers are primed to improve in 2023. Part of that is due to the natural progression of younger guys growing into reliable NFL players. Part of it is due to the work by Khan to improve the roster as a whole throughout the offseason. And, part of it is due to a much easier schedule than last year as the Steelers will face either a rookie or first-year starter at quarterback in at least six games this season.

While we don't quite know just how much the Steelers could improve in 2023, there are enough indicators that this team could find a way to at least a 10-7 record and make the playoffs. Obviously, we'll get a much better grip on that once we get through training camp.