Four weeks ago, David Bednar and Mitch Keller represented the Pirates at the All-Star Game. A week ago, they were two of the most sought after white whales of the trade deadline.
Right now, they are slumping. Keller was shaky in a five inning outing and Bednar blew his second save in four days as the Pirates fell to the Braves at PNC Park Tuesday, 8-6.
"Honestly, just frustrating," Bednar said. "Not being able to get two outs, then with one out to go, not getting it done. Then also not keeping it a tie game. That’s incredibly frustrating."
For most of the year, the ninth inning had been the safest for the Pirates, who had won their first 44 games when they took a lead into the final frame. Their last two losses have now come when they handed the ball to Bednar in the ninth for a save, and on both occasions, he fell short.
One out away from a victory Tuesday, Bednar challenged Kevin Pillar with a 98 mph fastball, but the outfielder flared it to left field for a game-tying single:
— DK Pittsburgh Sports (@DKPSvideos) August 9, 2023
Five pitches later, Bednar was a strike away from keeping it tied, but Orlando Arcia poked a curveball just by a diving Ke'Bryan Hayes to let the deciding final two runs score:
— DK Pittsburgh Sports (@DKPSvideos) August 9, 2023
Tuesday was the fourth time in five days Bednar was tasked to pitch, a tall ask for any reliever. The velocity was there and he confirmed postgame that he's feeling fine, so it's not a clear-cut matter of him being overworked or gassed. But the team's closer has been noticeably off of late, starting with needing to escape bases loaded jams on two occasions on the west coast in late July. Now those runners have started to come in to score, and for the first time in Bednar's time with the Pirates, he has allowed a run to score in three straight outings.
"I think the common denominator is just leaving [pitches in bad spots]," Derek Shelton said. "Pillar hit a fastball that was supposed to be away and he hit middle-in. Arcia hit a hanging breaking ball. Just leaving balls in bad locations."
So how much should be taken from this? Bednar's allowed as many walks (seven) over his last nine outings as he did over his first 37. He's allowed more runs over his last eight outings (six) than he did the first 38 (five). But with his fastball still at 98 mph with similar mechanics, there's nothing that jumps out to explain why he's hit this bump.
And in the clubhouse, his teammates are willing to just write it off as a bump.
"David is a savage," Josh Palacios said. "He’s going to shake it off, for sure. This is baseball. It goes up, it goes down. Nobody has a zero ERA in the league — things happen. He’s an All-Star. He’s the best closer in the game in my opinion. He’s going to bounce back from this with ease."
"There's no doubt in any of our minds in here when the ninth inning comes around and he gets the ball that he's gonna seal the deal," Keller said. "So yeah, he's back out there tomorrow, I have 100% confidence that he's going to get it done."
There's similar faith in Keller, even if his cold stretch has been longer.
Tuesday's start got off on the wrong foot when Ronald Acuna Jr. blasted the second pitch of the game for a home run, but it was a third inning double by Travis d'Arnaud on a sweeper that stayed up in the zone that proved to be the big hit of the night:
— DK Pittsburgh Sports (@DKPSvideos) August 9, 2023
Keller was pulled after just five innings, allowing three runs on nine hits. While it was better than his post All-Star Game performances, where he allowed 24 runs over 21 2/3 innings, it's still a far cry from what we had seen from him of late.
Looking at what is different, it starts with the breaking balls. The Braves had two hits against all three of his breaking offerings: The cutter, sweeper and curve. The cutter has been a go-to pitch all year, but hitters are 16-for-34 against it since the start of July, which translates to a .471 batting average.
The Braves had just two singles in six at-bats against the cutter Tuesday, and Keller thought it was heading in the right direction.
"I felt a lot different today," Keller said. "I was throwing a lot harder. I felt like it was getting to the spots and I was really pleased with it today."
But that doesn't take away from the fact that as the season has progressed, Keller's release point for his two most important breaking pitches has been dropping, and those pitches have in turn become less consistent"
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"It's just not as consistent," Shelton said about the sweeper. "I think his last outing, two outings ago, he didn't really find it until the fourth inning and then today it was just inconsistent in terms of the shape and the action of it."
There's plenty of time still for Keller to finish strong, but his All-Star campaign has turned into him seeing his ERA bloat to 4.39. Until those breaking balls get back on track, he may not be able to get back into that All-Star form.
This had the makings of another win over the National League's top team. The Pirates hit four home runs on the day, including a three-run shot by Hayes. Palacios made a highlight reel catch. Andre Jackson gave two innings of scoreless relief in the seventh and eighth.
But it was the All-Stars bookending the pitching that made the gap just too much to overcome.
"That's a tough game to lose 'cause we swung the bats really well the last two days," Shelton said. "We've continued to put pressure on them. We get ourselves with a lead in the ninth and I think that's what we're looking to do. We're trying to do that every night."
THE ESSENTIALS
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THE HIGHLIGHTS
THE INJURIES
• 10-day injured list: 2B Ji Hwan Bae (ankle)
• 15-day injured list: RHP Dauri Moreta (lower back)
• 60-day injured list: SS Oneil Cruz (ankle), RHP JT Brubaker (elbow), LHP Jarlin Garcia (elbow), RHP Max Kranick (elbow), INF Tucupita Marcano (knee), RHP Vince Velasquez (elbow)
THE LINEUPS
Shelton's card:
1. Josh Palacios, RF
2. Bryan Reynolds, LF
3. Andrew McCutchen, DH
4. Jack Suwinski, CF
5. Ke'Bryan Hayes, 3B
6. Alfonso Rivas, 1B
7. Liover Peguero, 2B
8. Alika Williams, SS
9. Jason Delay, C
And for Brian Snitker's Braves:
1. Ronald Acuña Jr., RF
2. Ozzie Albies, 2B
3. Austin Riley, 3B
4. Matt Olson, 1B
5. Travis D'Arnaud, C
6. Marcell Ozuna, DH
7. Eddie Rosario, LF
8. Orlando Arcia, SS
9. Michael Harris II, CF
THE SCHEDULE
Game three of the four-game set is set for Wednesday at 7:05 p.m. when Quinn Priester (2-1, 8.69) takes on Max Fried (3-1, 1.69). I'll have you covered.
THE MULTIMEDIA
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