It's that time of year again.
With this summer's draft and prospect development camp both in the books, and the Prospects Challenge tournament and training camp on the horizon, it's time for our annual ranking of the Penguins' top 10 prospects.
First, we have to lay out the criteria for what we can consider a "prospect" for this exercise. We'll stick with the usual rules:
1. The maximum age is 25 years old.
2. The player has to actually be Penguins property, meaning the Penguins either hold his signing rights or is signed. No AHL-contracted prospects. Two exceptions to this rule, though: While the Penguins do still own the NHL rights to Filip Hallander and Filip Lindberg after extending qualifying offers this summer, they don't count. Both have signed in Europe and won't be back. They aren't Penguins prospects any longer.
3. Once again, we'll borrow Calder Calder Memorial Trophy eligibility rules for a games played limit. This means that a player can't have more than 25 NHL games played in a single season, or more than six in each of any two preceding seasons. This excludes Alex Nylander and Ty Smith who have full NHL seasons under their belt.
With those guidelines in mind, here are the top 10 prospects in the Penguins' system, working our way up from No. 10.
10. Jonathan Gruden
Position: Center
Age: 23
Size: 6-0, 190
Shoots: Left
Acquired: Matt Murray trade in 2020
2022-23 stats: 54 games, 16 goals, 15 assists (AHL), 3 games (NHL)
Gruden likely doesn't have as high of a potential ceiling as some of the other options who didn't make the list, but his readiness now has him make the cut.
Gruden cracked the NHL this past season -- his third in the Penguins' organization -- and was up in Pittsburgh for a brief stint in which he centered the Penguins' fourth line. His 16 goals and 31 points were both career highs for him at the AHL level, though his production isn't his biggest strength at that level. His strengths -- and what earned him this opportunity in the NHL -- are his defensive play and his penalty-killing abilities. He's the best forward Wilkes-Barre has in either regard.
Teddy Blueger is the player I always point to if you're looking for a comparison for Gruden, both style-wise and ceiling-wise. Gruden is still pretty young at 23, and he could one day carve out a role as a steady, reliable fourth-line center in the NHL. It's hard to see him seeing extended time in the NHL this season given all the returning and newly-acquired depth options ahead of him at forward, but he could see some time in Pittsburgh if the injury bug strikes again.
This is Gruden's first season in which he loses his waivers-exempt status, so he'll have to go on waivers to start the year and be assigned to the AHL. Given his limited NHL experience, he should pass through unclaimed.
9. Isaac Belliveau
Position: Defenseman
Age: 20
Size: 6-2, 185
Shoots: Left
Acquired: 2021 draft, fifth round
2022-23 stats: 55 games, 11 goals, 35 assists (QMJHL)
Belliveau's three-year entry level contract kicks in this season as he makes the jump from junior hockey to the pro game.
It was Belliveau's size, edge and play with the puck that led the Penguins to Belliveau in the draft two years ago. He put up decent numbers offensively over his QMJHL career, finishing with 11 goals and 35 assists in 55 games last season. Those were improvements over his previous season, though not new career highs. His career-high 53 points in 62 games came back in 2019-20, when he was sharing much of his ice time with eventual top pick Alexis Lafreniere.
The QMJHL is notoriously offense-first, and a near-point-per-game pace for a defenseman isn't that outstanding. But Belliveau is one of the top defensemen on both sides of the puck in the league this year.
The website Puck Preps tracks microstats at five-on-five for junior hockey, and this season Belliveau ranked in the 97th percentile for QMJHL defensemen in his offensive game and the 98th percentile in his defensive game, meaning he's better than 97% of defensemen offensively and better than 98% defensively. He was in the 75th percentile in winning puck battles, and 94th percentile in takeaways. He played a big role in driving play for his Gatineau Olympiques, ranking in the 100th percentile in passes to set up zone entries, and 94th percentile in zone entries where he carries the puck himself. He was in the 94th percentile in passes to exit his own zone.
Belliveau took some steps forward since being drafted, and now it's just waiting to see how that transfers over to the pro game. Defensemen always take a bit longer to develop -- and Belliveau should be no exception -- so he isn't going to be pushing for an NHL spot anytime soon.
8. Tristan Broz
Position: Center/wing
Age: 20
Size: 6-0, 183
Shoots: Left
Acquired: 2021 draft, second round
2022-23 stats: 40 games, 10 goals, 18 assists (NCAA)
Broz certainly took some steps in his sophomore season -- his first at the University of Denver, after transferring from the University of Minnesota following his freshman season.
Broz played in Denver's top six -- frequently on the left side of the top line -- and his production benefitted from the increased role. He more than doubled his freshman year total of 11 points (five goals, six assists) in four more games.
Still, the Penguins want to see more consistency out of Broz offensively. He'd go cold at times during the season, and had a pretty slow start, with just one goal and one assist through his first 13 games. Coming out of the gate hot was something the development staff stressed to Broz at development camp this summer.
The Penguins like Broz and his skillset. He's a playmaker, is creative, a good skater, and versatile in his ability to play center and wing. He does still remain more of a project as a prospect, and has another year or two in college before he makes the jump to the pro game.
After a rocky start to his freshman year and another slow start to his sophomore year, the first few weeks of the season will be something to watch for Broz to see if he's taken some steps forward in the consistency the Penguins want to see from him.
7. Emil Pieniniemi
Position: Defenseman
Age: 18
Size: 6-2, 175
Shoots: Left
Acquired: 2023 draft, third round
2022-23 stats: 1 game (Liiga), 31 games, 1 goal, 12 assists (U20 league), 3 games, 3 goals, 4 assists (U18 league)
Pieniniemi, the Penguins' third-round pick this summer, might just be the second-best defense prospect in the system.
The Penguins had a number of meetings with Pieniniemi leading up to the draft, and they liked what they saw. Penguins director of amateur scouting Nick Pryor said after the draft that Pieniniemi "moves well, is really good with the puck, smart. He gets you out of your own end clean, his transition game is very good, and the size to go with that. We were really excited where we got him."
The Penguins committed to Pieniniemi after this summer's development camp, signing him to a three-year entry level deal that will begin when Pieniniemi makes the jump to North America.
That won't happen just yet. Pieniniemi will be loaned back to his Finnish club, Karpat, for the coming season, and his goal is to stick in the top Finnish league for the full season. He doesn't have much professional experience against grown men at all, just one lone game in the top league last season. The rest of his experience was split between the two Finnish junior leagues. Ideally he'd put together a full, strong year in the top Finnish league before there is even any consideration of bringing him over to North America. He'll need to get stronger too, and he pointed to his physical game as something he especially wants to continue to improve moving forward.
As with most mid-round draft picks, Pieniniemi is going to be a bit of a project. But the tools he has suggest that he could have a pretty high ceiling if he's able to put it all together.
6. Sergei Murashov
Position: Goaltender
Age: 19
Size: 6-1, 170
Catches: Right
Acquired: 2022 draft, fourth round
2022-23 stats: 1 game, 1.00 GAA, .947 SV% (KHL), 42 games, 1.65 GAA, .944 SV%, 11 shutouts (MHL)
Murashov is coming off of an absolutely insane season. If he can have even close to the same level of success in this coming season, ranking him the sixth-best Penguins prospect might be too low.
His numbers above speak for themselves. Those are video game numbers when you're playing the game on easy mode. His 11 shutouts were two shy of an MHL record. The goalie with the next-most shutouts in the league that season had six. Of the 42 games Murashov played, he only allowed more than three goals in 11 of them. He rightfully earned the award at the end of the season for the league's top goaltender.
The MHL is the Russian junior league. The KHL is the top league, and in the middle there's the VHL, a professional league that would be equivalent to the KHL's version of the AHL. When Murashov's KHL club Lokomotiv was hurting in goal in December, they recalled him straight from the MHL to the KHL. He backed up for a couple of games, then finally made his KHL debut and stopped 18 of 19 shots in a win. It was the only KHL action he got all season.
It's pretty tough to predict a goaltender's future success when they're this young, and Murashov has still yet to play regularly in a professional league against men, but it's impossible to ignore what he did last year. That's intriguing.
Plus ... you know Olaf, the little snowman guy in the Disney Frozen movies? Murashov has him painted on his mask and embroidered on his other gear. For years he's carried around a very tiny Olaf figurine (like maybe an inch tall) on his travels and he takes pictures of it on each stop. All the best goalies are a little quirky and weird, and Murashov's Olaf obsession is the goofy behavior you want to see in a young goaltender.
The big downside here is the uncertainty surrounding Russian prospects in general right now. The KHL wants to keep its top talent in Russia, and Flyers goaltending prospect Ivan Fedotov is a clear example of that. Fedotov signed an entry-level deal with the Flyers in May 2022, then was sent to a remote military base in Siberia for a year of military service, then signed an extension with his KHL club. With Fedotov under two competing contracts, the IIHF ruled in favor of the Flyers. The KHL defied the IIHF's ruling this week and Fedotov was dressed for his KHL team's season opener, with the KHL releasing a statement saying it disagrees with the KHL decision. This marks the first time the KHL has flat out gone against an IIHF ruling regarding contracts like this, and it's a concerning precedent being set for the league's handling of top prospects who were drafted by an NHL team.
The good news is that since the NHL and Russian Ice Hockey Federation have no formal transfer agreement, NHL teams retain the North American signing rights to drafted players indefinitely. Unlike prospects drafted from junior, college and other European leagues, there is no deadline to sign a player drafted out of Russia before losing his rights. Murashov can stay in Russia for as long as needed and he remains Penguins property in North America.
5. Sam Poulin
Position: Center/wing
Age: 22
Size: 6-2, 214
Shoots: Left
Acquired: 2019 draft, first round
2022-23 stats: 3 games, 1 assist (NHL), 15 games, 4 goals (AHL)
Poulin missed the majority of last season after taking a personal leave to focus on his mental health.
Where Poulin left off before taking his leave was pretty good. He had four goals in 13 games for Wilkes-Barre before, primarily centering the second line. He was recalled to the NHL during the Penguins' Western Canada road trip and made his NHL debut in Calgary on Oct. 25. He had one assist in his debut, his lone point in the three NHL games he played before being re-assigned to the AHL.
The Penguins announced Poulin's leave on Dec. 7, and Poulin returned to Wilkes-Barre in mid-March. He spent the last month of the AHL season in Wilkes-Barre, where he mostly practiced with the team and worked on getting back in game shape. He got into two games in April as part of that recovery process, then went back home to Quebec for the offseason. He attended the Penguins' development camp this summer as part of the process of getting back to being game-ready. While it isn't an evaluation camp, and most of the players attending that camp had little to no AHL experience, Poulin didn't look like he had lost a step.
The upcoming Prospects Challenge tournament in Buffalo this month, as well as training camp and the NHL preseason, will provide a better idea of where Poulin's game is after missing so much time off. It's tough to imagine he pushes for a spot on the roster out of camp, but if he starts strong for Wilkes-Barre he could be in line for a call up during the season.
I'd be looking ahead to the 2024-25 season for when it might become possible for Poulin to become a real, regular NHL player. Jeff Carter's contract will come to a merciful end, and a bottom-six center spot will be open. Poulin didn't look out of place in his brief time playing center at the NHL level early last season. He made a lot of progress in the AHL toward becoming responsible and reliable defensively, he has a strong down-low game, and he has offensive instincts that could help the bottom six chip in occasionally. If he bounces back this year, he could really push for a spot next year.
Poulin remains exempt from waivers for one more season, so there's no risk in sending him down to the AHL to start the year.
4. Valtteri Puustinen
Position: Wing
Age: 24
Size: 5-9, 183
Shoots: Right
Acquired: 2019 draft, seventh round
2022-23 stats: 72 games, 24 goals, 35 assists (AHL)
Puustinen is one of the few forward prospects already in Wilkes-Barre who have top six potential, and definitely one of only a handful that are ready for the NHL now.
After getting in one NHL game in his rookie 2021-22 season, we didn't see Puustinen up in Pittsburgh at all last season.
The Penguins were cash-strapped for much of the season, and there were limited opportunities at right wing. Still, it's surprising we didn't see Puustinen up in Pittsburgh at all. Puustinen set career highs in goals, assists and points, and his .82 points per game ranked second on the team behind only Nylander's .91. The forwards with the next three best points per game this season -- Drake Caggiula (.82), Hallander (.77), and Gruden (.57) all got brief stints in the NHL during the year, although they all bring more of a two-way presence than Puustinen does.
Puustinen went through the first real cold streak of his two seasons in North America in the second half of the season -- from Feb. 25 through March 26 he played 12 games and recorded just five assists, no goals. He broke that goalless streak on March 29, and had three goals and seven assists in his last nine games of the season.
It's understandable why Puustinen didn't get a shot up in Pittsburgh later in the season, given the cold streak he went on for a full month. Still, you would have liked to have seen him get some time in the NHL earlier in the year, especially since he looked pretty decent in his one-game debut in the 2021-22 season.
With Jake Guentzel expected to miss five games or so to start the season, there's an opening for a winger to get a brief audition in the top six, and it would be nice to just finally see what Puustinen could do in a role like that. He's exempt from waivers from one more season, and that could play a role in who gets a shot and who doesn't. Puustinen could be sent down to the AHL without the risk of losing him.
3. Joel Blomqvist
Position: Goaltender
Age: 21
Size: 6-2, 183
Catches: Left
Acquired: 2020 draft, second round
2022-23 stats: 21 games, 2.29 GAA, .907 SV%, 1 shutout (Liiga), 1 game, 4.00 GAA, .852 SV% (AHL)
Blomqvist will be making the move to North America this coming season and will likely share Wilkes-Barre's net with either Alex Nedeljkovic or Magnus Hellberg.
Blomqvist signed his three-year entry-level contract back in April. He spent the last two seasons playing for Karpat of the top Finnish league, and had a stellar season in 20 games as a backup in 2021-22 with a 1.32 goals-against average and a .940 save percentage, but his 2022-23 season was marred by injury. Blomqvist suffered two separate concussions throughout the year as a result of collisions, and was limited to 21 regular-season games as a result.
Blomqvist was able to join Wilkes-Barre after both of those seasons, practice with the team and get in a game each year. It was a limited sample size, but coach J.D. Forrest liked what he saw.
"We like his hockey sense for a goaltender," Forrest said at development camp. "He's able to read plays and get there. He made some incredible backdoor saves for us. You know, let up a lot of Grade As on him that game that he played (this past season) in Hartford. But he's big in the net. He can react quick to some plays that you think he's out, and all of a sudden he's got a foot on it or stick on it. He's got a nice, calm demeanor, where he doesn't seem to get rattled at all. It feels real confident with him in the net that if you lets one in, you don't think there's going to be any type of falling off a cliff with it. You just think that he'll probably stop the next one. His mentality is strong."
If there's any prospect I'm especially interested in watching once training camp opens, it's Blomqvist. He could be the team's future No. 1 goaltender. We've seen him in development camps before, but that's hardly a game-like scenario and he was facing other prospects. Training camp -- and hopefully the NHL preseason -- will be the first opportunity to see how Blomqvist fares against NHL shooters.
2. Owen Pickering
Position: Defenseman
Age: 19
Size: 6-4, 194
Shoots: Left
Acquired: 2022 draft, first round
2022-23 stats: 61 games, 9 goals, 36 assists (WHL), 8 games (AHL)
Without a doubt, Pickering is the Penguins' top defense prospect.
Pickering had a good year in the WHL, captaining his Swift Current Broncos and playing on the left side of the top defense pairing. His nine goals in 61 games matched his total from the year before, and his 36 assists were 12 more than the year before. His team fell just short of a spot in the postseason, a bittersweet result for Pickering. Bitter for obvious reasons, but sweet because the early exit allowed him to get some games in at the next level.
Pickering Wilkes-Barre/Scranton on an AHL amateur tryout deal after his WHL season ended, and the arrangement allowed him to get in some professional-level games without eating into his NHL entry-level contract. Wilkes-Barre was mathematically eliminated from playoff contention about a week later. The rest of the season for Wilkes-Barre became about getting some of those younger guys some valuable experience, and Pickering was no exception. He played in eight games and skated in a top-four role and quarterbacked a power play unit. Pickering didn't put up any points in those games, and there were definitely some moments when he struggled in his own end. The experience was a success either way because it gave Pickering an early taste of AHL hockey.
It was certainly an adjustment for Pickering, but Forrest saw improvement over those eight games.
"It's a heck of a jump going from juniors to the American League," Forrest said at development camp. "But every day we saw progression, and he's got a lot of tools. You know, I think one of the biggest things is he's playing against men all of a sudden. And he's doing a great job of getting physically ready for just advancing in his career. But what we liked was each day, there was a progression, he picked up a little bit of something, he got a little bit smarter, he understood how to play against his competition. It just shows his hockey smarts, which is something we always value."
Pickering put on some much-needed weight over the course of the year too. He came into last summer's development camp at 6 foot 4 and about 175 pounds. This summer, he's nowhere near as slender, and looks more filled-out with visible muscle. The scale tells the real story -- he weighed in at 194 on the first day of development camp. It's good, lean muscle too. He said at camp that he hasn't felt it affect his skating, and director of player development Tom Kostopoulos echoed that sentiment.
Pickering will surely be going back to the WHL this season. Junior-eligible players aren't eligible to play until the AHL until age 20 as a result of the NHL-CHL transfer agreement. Pickering definitely isn't ready for the NHL just yet, so heading back to Swift Current is his only option. Pickering will attend the NHL training camp though, and he could get in a couple of preseason games before going back out west for his last year of junior hockey. It would be another valuable learning experience for Pickering, and an opportunity to see how that newly-added strength holds up.
1. Brayden Yager
Position: Center
Age: 18
Size: 5-11, 166
Shoots: Right
Acquired: 2023 draft, first round
2022-23 stats: 67 games, 28 goals, 50 assists (WHL)
Yager is the Penguins' top prospect and projects as a future top-six center.
Yager's strengths are his two-way play, his shot and his playmaking abilities. He put up decent offensive numbers last year in the WHL, although it came with a change in direction from his rookie 2021-22 season. In his rookie year he was primarily known as a shooter, and scored six more goals (34) in 67 games, but half the amount of assists (25) than he had this past season.
It was Yager's attention to detail in his own end that really attracted Kyle Dubas and the Penguins to him, though.
"The way that he drove possession out of his own zone," Dubas said at the draft. "The way he played the whole rink, skated through the middle of the rink, was able to make plays, able to be the defensive conscience of his line while also producing offensively. The scouting staff was very excited about him."
Yager tries to model his game after other strong two-way centers like Sidney Crosby, Patrice Bergeron and Jonathan Toews. At the draft he also named Nathan MacKinnon as inspiration in particular with his shot, with the quickness of MacKinnon's release and the way he jumps into the shot.
Yager has some versatility in his game too. He's played primarily center for Moose Jaw in the WHL over the last two years, but did play wing growing up. He prefers center, and is focusing on improving his already-strong two-way game and his work in the faceoff circle in order to hopefully have success one day as a center at the NHL level.
Yager needs to add some strength to the 166 pounds he's listed at now, but that's not at all uncommon for an 18-year-old prospect. Yager certainly has some time to make that happen, too.
Like Pickering, Yager is too young for the AHL and not ready for the NHL, so he'll head back to the WHL. He'll likely play there for two more seasons, unless he takes major, major strides next year and earns a spot out of camp in 2024. Also like Pickering, if Yager's WHL team has an early exit from the playoffs next season, he'll be able to join Wilkes-Barre on a tryout contract in the spring and gain some AHL experience.
