ATLANTA -- Mitch Keller's first fastball of the night Friday turned out to be a microcosm of the evening ahead.
It clocked in at just 91.8 mph.
Keller's four-seamer clocked in at an average of 93.6 Friday at Truist Park, and his sinker was its normal tick lower than that at 92.5 mph. While his velocity has trended down a bit in September, it was almost two full mph lower than his average and a personal low on the season. With the exception of a shorter outing in August of last year, it was his lowest average fastball speed since he went to Tread Athletics during the 2021-2022 offseason, the first leap in his All-Star renaissance.
Just about every pitch was down a tick or two compared to normal, and the Braves pounced on that slower stuff, racking up 12 hits and eight runs over five innings, allowing them to coast to an 8-2 win over the Pirates.
Before too many sirens are set off, Keller confirmed postgame that he feels fine. He's thrown 174 2/3 innings, a career high. It's no coincidence that the velocity isn't what it was in May.
"We're in the middle of September, so that's going to be typical, a little bit of a trend down," Derek Shelton said. "I don't think that played into it today. I think today, they just did a good job putting the ball in play."
That was most evident in the third inning. The Braves boast one of the deepest lineups in recent baseball history and rattled off six singles in a four-run frame. None of them were hit hard, several bats were shattered, and while Keller nibbled on the edges of the zone, the hits just didn't stop coming:
— DK Pittsburgh Sports (@DKPSvideos) September 9, 2023
"Yeah, it’s frustrating," Keller said. "That’s about all I can say about it. I’m making my pitches. I’m doing exactly what I want and giving up soft contact. It’s kind of laughable. There’s nothing else I can do."
Here was the location of those final pitches of each at-bat in the third, almost all of them off the plate:
The third inning ended up being a 41 pitch ordeal, and Ronald Acuña Jr. opened the fourth with a no-doubter to center to bolster his MVP case. And unlike the third inning, that pitch was down the middle:
— DK Pittsburgh Sports (@DKPSvideos) September 9, 2023
"Anytime you throw that much and he had to grind through that third, so that can play a factor into it," Shelton said, theorizing on the hung pitches of the inning.
Eddie Rosario would later turn on a cutter for the second round-tripper of the game. Keller would end up going five innings, but with those 12 hits and eight runs on his ledger.
The outing snapped a stretch of four straight quality starts where Keller allowed just four earned runs over 26 innings pitched. The innings are a big part of this equation moving forward, too. Coming into the year, Keller set three goals for himself: Be the opening day starer, an All-Star and throw 200 innings. The first two have happened, and depending on how things shake out down the stretch, Keller still has a shot of the third, though the Pirates are going to be very mindful of that workload since he has already set a new personal high for innings tossed.
"Innings are important," Shelton said. "How you pitch and how you execute allows you to do that. I think we'll continue to go start by start with him in terms of where he's at."
With a couple off-days stay built into the Pirates' schedule, four more starts seems like a possibility for Keller, so 200 innings is still in play. If that happens, he would be the first Pirate to cross that mile marker since Gerrit Cole in 2017.
So in his eyes, this isn't the time to start changing routines or tweaking what's gotten him so deep this year. Because to him, it's not just about 2023. It's about his and the Pirates' future and potential playoff runs.
"When you’re looking at this for a building thing, I’m trying to build off last year’s innings," Keller said. "Obviously, we’re not at the point where we’re trying to be where we’re trying to get to the playoffs, but obviously, the next step of this is trying to find my routine so I can feel good hopefully going into postseason baseball. I’m not saying we’re out of it now, but I’m trying to build for postseason baseball. I think you find out how to get through that in situations like this where I’m at a lot of innings and it is more than I have thrown. If we are going to make the postseason, then I need to throw more innings than I’m ever going to throw."
"I think this is a good learning thing by trying to get over the hump here, look at some mechanical things," Keller continued. "I don’t know what it might be, but just try to find something to get the velo back up. That’s probably the least of my concerns. I got the soft contact I wanted. I gave up the homer to Acuña and missed it by probably a ball up in the zone to where I was trying to go on that pitch on the cutter. I’m not going to try to look too much into that."
THE ESSENTIALS
• Boxscore
• Live file
• Team feed
• Standings
• Statistics
• Schedule
• Scoreboard
THE HIGHLIGHTS
THE INJURIES
• 10-day injured list: RF Henry Davis (thumb)
• 60-day injured list: SS Oneil Cruz (ankle), RHP JT Brubaker (elbow), LHP Jarlin Garcia (elbow), RHP Max Kranick (elbow), INF Tucupita Marcano (knee), LHP Angel Perdomo (elbow), RHP Vince Velasquez (elbow)
THE LINEUPS
Shelton's card:
1. Ji Hwan Bae, CF
2. Bryan Reynolds, DH
3. Ke'Bryan Hayes, 3B
4. Jack Suwinski, FL
5. Endy Rodríguez, C
6. Joshua Palacios, RF
7. Liover Peguero, 2B
8. Alfonso Rivas, 1B
9. Alika Williams, SS
And for Brian Snitker's Braves:
1. Ronald Acuña Jr., RF
2. Ozzie Albies, 2B
3. Matt Olson, 1B
4. Marcell Ozuna, DH
5. Eddie Rosario, LF
6. Travis d'Arnaud, C
7. Michael Harris II, CF
8. Orlando Arcia, SS
9. Nicky Lopez, 3B
THE SCHEDULE
The Pirates will try to get back on track Saturday when Johan Oviedo (8-14, 4.27) takes the bump. First pitch is set for 7:20 p.m. I'll have you covered.
THE MULTIMEDIA
THE CONTENT