Mike's Beer Bar War Room: Is Steelers' winning formula sustainable?

More games in the NFL are lost than won. Bill Belichick is well known for starting his week of game preparation with, "What must my team do to avoid losing this game?" Belichick won his 300th regular-season game on Sunday, to go along with 31 postseason victories. There is an art to not losing games, and the Steelers also have a coach that knows how not to lose in the NFL. 

The Steelers are 4-2. They have won eight of their last 10 games and 11 of their last 15. Kenny Pickett has now started 18 games, basically the equivalent of an NFL regular season worth of starts. The Steelers are 11-7 in games Pickett has started. In the 19 career games has appeared in, Pickett has led his team to seven game-winning drives and five fourth-quarter comebacks. 

Above is Pickett’s game-winning drive last year in harsh weather against the Raiders. The term "clutch" isn’t something easy to quantify, but Pickett is making a strong case that he is at his best when the game is on the line and when it matters most. Pickett was seven of seven in the fourth quarter of Sunday's victory over the Rams, a quarter of play in which the Steelers ran 25 plays and generated 182 yards of offense. 

Pickett has thrown 13 interceptions in those 19 games he has participated in. This year, he has thrown four interceptions -- two against San Francisco, and one each against Cleveland and Houston. The Steelers defeated Cleveland, but lost the other two matchups by a combined 47 points. During Pickett’s rookie season, he threw multiple interceptions in a game twice, both were losses. There were three other games in 2022 in which Pickett threw a single interception. The Steelers won just one of those, a narrow 13-10 victory over a not-so-great Raiders team. They lost the other two against Buffalo and Philadelphia by a combined 57 points.

Catching on to a trend here yet?

This season, Pittsburgh is plus-6 in traditional turnover ratio, but when you factor in field goals missed (plus-3) and fourth down conversion rate (plus-3), both of which are essentially the exact same thing as a turnover, the Steelers are then plus-12 through six games. 

Let me explain that for a minute. Many don’t look at a missed field goal or a failed fourth-down conversion as a turnover, but they really are almost the exact same thing. What’s really the difference if a quarterback on third down drops back 7 yards, is sacked, the ball pops out and the defense falls on it, as opposed to if on the next play, the field goal kicker trots out and misses a kick, thus giving the ball to the other team (and often in prime field position)? Or, if on third down, the quarterback fumbles the snap and a big defensive lineman falls on the ball at the line of scrimmage? How is that truly different than if on the next play, a fourth down attempt, the offense fails to gain a yard on fourth-and-1? 

Missed field goals and failed fourth down attempts are turnovers. There is a skill to stopping the opponent on fourth down, but the reality is, whether or not the ball goes through the uprights after it leaves the opposing kicker’s foot is almost entirely luck.

Well, Chris Boswell has been perfect this season. That isn’t luck. But, the Steelers' opposing kickers have already missed three field goal attempts, which is fortuitous. The Steelers' offense has converted on two of their five fourth down attempts. Their opponents are collectively just 2 of 8. The Steelers have benefited from this a great deal. 

Along those lines in somewhat of a hidden yardage aspect, the Steelers are picking up +15.2 in penalty yardage per game this season over their opponents, even after losing that penalty battle by 36 yards against the Rams. That might not seem like much, but with how the Steelers have to play, every little bit matters. 

In almost every other obvious statistic, the Steelers are on the wrong end: Points per game, total touchdowns, first downs, passing yards per game, rushing yards per game, yards per game (obviously), yards per play, total offensive plays, time of possession. Collectively, the Steelers' opponents have outperformed them in all these categories. The Steelers have been outscored by 24 points this season. Yet, the Steelers are winning more games than they are losing, over a pretty large sample size during the Pickett era. 

Is this the best way to conquer the NFL? Of course not. It would be much better and much more sustainable to have Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce and a great Kansas City offensive line and defense. Or to have the well-rounded San Francisco juggernaut that the Steelers saw in Week 1 that is loaded with elite football players. The Steelers will not be such a team, at least not in 2023. That probably doesn’t shock you. 

Can the Steelers hang with the true big dogs in the NFL like San Francisco that is loaded with elite players like Christian McCaffrey? That answer is probably no, and very recent history shows us as much. But, with the cards in Mike Tomlin’s hand right now, playing a certain style is the smart move while his team continues to improve. 

But is what the Steelers doing sustainable? It is walking the razor’s edge for sure, but please realize that Tomlin has a great understanding of how to win football games in the NFL … or more suitably, how not to lose them. 

When the opponent screws up, or you force the opponent to screw up, you must make them pay. The Steelers are making their opponents pay for mistakes and are creating a great deal of them, forcing a dozen turnovers in six games. The Steelers scored 10 points on Sunday from drives after a Rams missed field goal and another seven after T.J. Watt’s interception: 

This was the defining, game-changing play of the Steelers' win on Sunday. If a great off-ball linebacker like the 49ers' Fred Warner were to make this play, everyone would be rightfully raving. But this was made by maybe the best edge rusher on the planet. Watt keys on Cooper Kupp the entire time, and makes the Rams pay dearly. 

Now it should be noted, that based off opponent’s EPA (expected points added), Pittsburgh’s offense has faced the most difficult slate of defenses in the NFL by a very wide margin. It really isn’t even close between this team and the offense that has faced the second most difficult slate. If you prefer DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average), the Steelers' offense has faced the best defense in the league thus far (Cleveland), as well as the second- (Baltimore) and fourth-best (San Francisco). The Steelers' next opponent, the Jaguars, are next on the list at fifth-best. 

But, needless to say, it eases up after this upcoming Sunday. The Steelers' offense hasn’t faced a defense in the bottom seven in DVOA, and only one (Las Vegas) in the bottom 11. 

It's worth noting the Steelers' defense is seventh in DVOA. The Steelers' offense has been a bigger area of concern than the defensive side of the ball, but the road will be much easier … and improvement, which we have seen some already, should be expected. 

The Steelers' opponents probably won’t keep missing field goals at this rate. But, if Tomlin can keep his squad from losing games, particularly helping keeping Pickett’s interception numbers down, the Steelers should be very competitive. That isn’t to suggest that Tomlin needs to neuter Pickett, who has excelled late in games as mentioned, as his improvement and maturation is the most important thing in this entire organization. 

However, the Steelers do have a distinct formula in which to keeping adding to the win column … and Tomlin knows it.