ALTOONA, Pa. -- If you're looking for reasons why Penn State could beat Michigan, start with this big one: The Wolverines haven't been challenged at all this season, so everything about them is still somewhat questionable.
Until Michigan gets punched in the mouth and finds itself in a tough game, nobody has any idea how it will respond to those circumstances.
That's where we'll start this edition of the midweek top five, which may need to be renamed now that James Franklin has moved his press conference to Mondays.
1. Michigan's soft schedule hasn't produced any quality competition.
The Nittany Lions have already played Ohio State, so they've faced as big of a challenge as there is -- on the road against the current No. 1 team in the College Football Playoff.
Penn State also faced a ton of adversity being tied late against Indiana. While that teeth-pulling game showed a lot of the Lions' weaknesses, it at least was a game where the players faced great adversity in crunch time.
Michigan has had none of that. This is the Wolverines' schedule, and those teams' current record:
• East Carolina (1-8): W 30-3
• UNLV (7-2): W 35-7
• Bowling Green (5-4): W 31-6
• Rutgers (6-3): W 31-7
• Nebraska (5-4): W 45-7
• Minnesota (5-4): W 52-10
• Indiana (3-6): W 52-7
• Michigan State (3-6): W 49-0
• Purdue (2-7): W 41-13
That's a combined record of 37-44.
The combined record of Penn State's opponents is 48-34.
"The biggest thing with them is they really have not been challenged," Franklin said Monday about the Wolverines. "They've had really good game control on offense and defense. They're usually ahead on the scoreboard for the most part, and they're usually ahead of the sticks on offense and defense."
A lot of that is because Michigan has dominant units on both offense and defense. And that's why the Wolverines are legitimate contenders to win the national title.
But until they face some game pressure and prove they can overcome it, we just won't know for sure how the Wolverines will respond.
Penn State lost the Ohio State game and did not look good at all on offense, while the defense played very well.
Even in losing, though, the Lions have already played one of the best teams in the country, and that gives them a sizable advantage from an intangible standpoint.
Here's what Franklin said when I asked him how facing some tough challenges have helped his team for this game.
"Yeah, I think it definitely helps," the coach said. "I think whether it's being on the road or being at home or from a scheduling perspective who we've played out of conference, all those things are decisions you make and strategy that prepare you for games like this. So, yeah, I think it's been helpful. I think it's been beneficial."
Franklin did add this about Michigan:
"There has been some games where I've watched them ... where they've maybe started out a little slow or were down early on, but they have been able to wear people down over the last couple years. Even if they gave up an early score, something like that, they've been able to wear people down and be able to get a significant dominant win."
That's what Penn State will have to be weary of against the Wolverines -- the ability to just keep grinding and grinding to the point where they just dominate in the end.
Sound familiar?
That's been Penn State's formula this year, too, which Franklin has eluded to numerous times.
2. The offensive line has to deliver in this one.
Did you notice in the Maryland game how Drew Allar had a lot of time to throw the ball and usually a clean pocket? So, of course he was able to enjoy a strong performance.
Nobody should expect Allar to have anywhere near that much time to throw against Michigan.
Penn State's offensive line has been up and down this season, and when Allar has faced pressure, he just has not been very accurate.
So, from a pure Xs and Os standpoint, it's easy to pin a lot of the hopes for this game on the O-line.
Left tackle Olu Fashanu is considered the star on the line, and most games in his career he has been dominant. But when Penn State faced Ohio State last month, Fashanu had the worst game of his college career, allowing a sack and five hurries.
Fashanu did play in last year's game at Michigan, so he should have some idea of how the Wolverines' defense will try to attack him.
As for the rest of the line, this will be a major test, both from a pass blocking and run blocking standpoint.
We talked all offseason about how the O-line would be a strength for Penn State this season.
Well, the season is now on the line, and it's time for this unit to live up to the great expectations -- or else.
3. We'll see if the defensive line development has paid off.
The big story after last year's loss to Michigan was that the Lions were undersized and not gap sound against the running game. The Wolverines finished with 418 yards rushing, embarrassing a proud defensive unit.
Penn State's defensive linemen bulked up during the offseason, with this game in mind. There also was an added emphasis on staying gap sound, so that the Wolverines wouldn't have gaping holes to run through, as they did a year ago.
"We are bigger up front," Frankin said. "I think we have more depth. I think sometimes, again, (the Wolverines) do a great job getting a hat on a hat, the backs being patient.
"Sometime you feel like you've been in your gap long enough, and now you want to go make a play on the ball, and their backs have been patient enough and their line and tight ends have done a good job of getting a hat on a hat and being inside outs and prying a crease."
That's what makes Michigan tough to stop. The Wolverines not only have great size, strength and speed on their offensive line, but they will remain as committed as any team in the country at making sure they wear down defenses with their rushing attack.
"(Blake) Corum has shown he doesn't need a whole lot space, a whole lot of room to get the job done," Franklin said. "So, I think we're better positioned for that. I think we're bigger, more experienced at linebacker. Last year we were pretty inexperienced at linebacker. So, I think the combination of our front four and our experience and depth at linebacker gives us the best chance to continue to play great run defense, which is going to be very important in this game."
4. OK, but, this Michigan team has a major weapon at QB.
There are still a lot of people -- and I'm betting a large number of Penn State fans -- who just don't believe Michigan's J.J. McCarthy is the kind of star who can pick apart defenses.
Be very careful overlooking him in this game, thinking Michigan will just do what it always does with its strong running game.
McCarthy is having a terrific season, completing 76 percent of his passes for 2,134 yards with 18 TDs and three interceptions.
Granted, the competition hasn't been great, so maybe McCarthy's numbers could just be inflated. He hasn't faced anywhere near the kind of defense or pressure that he'll see from Penn State.
Still, McCarthy is plenty good enough to hurt the Lions through the air. And it's fair to say, after the Ohio State game and even since then, that standout Penn State cornerback Kalen King hasn't quite played up to his high standards of late.
It's very possible, after running all over Penn State last season, that Michigan could win this game with McCarthy doing a lot of the heavy lifting through the air.
"He's just a more experienced player," Franklin said of the second-year starter. "Always been able to make plays with his feet. He's just improved. Kind of well-rounded. He's throwing for a higher completion percentage. Doing a great job protecting the football. He can extend the plays and make big-time throws."
5. What's up with Penn State's running back situation?
Look, Franklin isn't going to risk upsetting either Kaytron Allen or Nicholas Singleton by burying one of them. It's all part of the ever-important roster management stuff.
Penn State has a two running back system, and the coaches try to keep both backs happy with enough touches.
But in this kind of game, where winning is the only thing that matters, some tough decisions may need to be made from a personnel standpoint.
If you've read my coverage for any length of time, you'll know that I believe Allen is the better of the two running backs for what Penn State is trying to accomplish in the Big Ten.
With the game on the line against Indiana, Allen was on the field. Against Maryland, Allen had 14 carries for 91 yards, while Singleton had just eight carries for 20 yards.
Given all this, Franklin was asked Monday if anything has changed with the running back rotation.
Of course, he said no.
"I think we did this last year and it was pretty successful. We're doing it this year and it's been pretty successful," he said of the two-back system.
"We've talked a ton about the running backs and having a way to keep those guys fresh for the fourth quarter, but also for the length of their careers, not only at Penn State, but afterwards as well. So, we feel very comfortable with the model and the plan and how we're using it."
Be that as it may, do not be at all surprised if Allen is the guy on the field when Penn State's offense needs to deliver in the clutch.
