NASHVILLE, Tenn. -- Even amid uncertainty of the team's broadcasting deal for 2024, which could have a significant negative impact on the team's revenues -- not to mention a very quiet start to this offseason -- Ben Cherington is expecting the Pirates' player payroll to increase for next year.
"I would anticipate us ending up above where we landed last year," Cherington said at the Gaylord Opryland Convention Center at the Winter Meetings Tuesday. "Generally speaking, we expect that as we get better, the payroll will continue to climb with us. To some extent, motivation for us is if we can actually push that as we get better. Chicken or the egg, but competitiveness can help speed that up. That’s the way we’re operating."
Given the uncertainty of the Pirates' broadcast, that didn't exactly seem like a guarantee coming into the winter. Major League Baseball's streaming proposal for clubs includes paying them 80% of their previously agreed upon broadcasting deal with a regional sports network. The Pirates' previous deal with AT&T SportsNet Pittsburgh was believed to be around the $50 million mark, and while that's not their only option for broadcasting games next year, going with the league wouldn't be a financial disaster, even if it is a potentially $10 million decrease in revenue.
"We’re very aware of that [the broadcasting impact]," Cherington said. "It’s part of the planning. We know what it meant this year. It’s obviously hard to predict exactly what it’s going to mean going forward. We do the best we can to predict what that’s going to mean going forward."
The 2023 payroll finished at $68,945,975, per Spotrac, with actual cash spending of $87,819,274. Both figures were second-lowest of all 30 etams. The current projection for 2024 commitments is roughly $50 million.
Even after factoring in the money that will likely go to Andrew McCutchen in the event he re-signs with the Pirates -- he signed for $5 million a year ago and Cherington confirmed Monday that the two sides are still talking -- that would mean they are still around $15 million under last year's payroll if he signs for a similar deal. Cherington didn't offer a number of what the payroll could be, but last year the team added about $30 million in additions. A similar ticket price for offseason additions would be about a $10 million jump in payroll in 2024.
The most obvious need is starting pitching. The Pirates added some Tuesday night in a trade with the Braves for lefty Marco Gonzales. However, if they really want the unit to improve, a couple young pitchers are going to need to step up. There aren't too many options on the free agent market that are realistic targets and who represent a significant upgrade.
Outside of pitching, where is the focus for this team?
First base comes to mind. They have Jared Triolo, but the preference is to not limit his defensive skills to just first base. Connor Joe had an .820 OPS against southpaws last year, but just a .720 OPS against right-handers. He may be best used primarily as a platoon. And the team's only two prospects of note who can play first base -- Malcom Nunez and Matt Gorski -- were both left unprotected off the roster and could potentially be taken in Wednesday's Rule 5 draft.
So add first base to the list.
"That market's fairly formed out," Cherington said. "We're engaged in it and we'll see what's there. Would obviously like to add someone to that position for 2024. Also interested in longer-term options."
Also add the corner outfield. McCutchen would check that box, and the team would hope that he could play the field more if that reunion does happen, though it is not a prerequisite. Henry Davis has been preparing to catch this winter, and if that happens, it would open up playing time in right field, where he primarily played last year.
A catching competition between Davis, Endy Rodríguez and Jason Delay could have ripples for how the lineup is constructed. Rodríguez's secondary position is first base, if Davis was to earn the bulk of the playing time, for example. A healthy competition by some of the team's best young players is good, but not knowing how it plays out does impact some of that offseason planning and additions.
"There are some cases we talk about like, ‘How can we strengthen this position in a way that doesn’t close the runway off for a younger player if the younger player takes that level up and earns that?’ " Cherington said. "It is part of the calculus. Not in every case but in some of the cases it is... If there was a position player we thought really made the team better and we could get on the right deal, makes our team better for 2024 and beyond, there’s a way to accommodate that."
The middle infield is on the back burner when it comes to these additions. Not saying it can't happen, but given the number of young shortstops and second basemen on the roster, including the return of a healthy Oneil Cruz, they have some depth and some upside.
"The middle infield is interesting because the truth is, we didn’t get enough production overall in 2023 offensively or defensively from the middle-infield spots. Enough that we need to be a good team," Cherington said. "That area of the team needs to get better. But we also think there are a number of players there who could take a step."
So much of this offseason is going to come down to what starting pitching the Pirates acquire, but a more significant investment would enforce the belief that they are getting closer to competing.
"It's very clear to me that we have resources we can use this offseason to make the team better," Cherington said.
