Right when it seems like the Steelers have figured some things out, they turn in all-time terrible performance in an embarrassing 24-10 loss to a Cardinals team that was 2-10 prior to Sunday's humiliation. Now, they'll face another 2-10 team, and will do everything possible to avoid another catastrophic outcome.
Here's a breakdown of what New England brings into Week 14:
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Record: 2-10
Standing: Fourth, AFC East
Last result: Lost to Chargers, 6-0
THE TREND
The once mighty Patriots are having their worst season under Bill Belichick. Moving on from Tom Brady was always going to be a challenge for the Patriots, but their efforts in 2023 are the worst to date.
While the Patriots' defense is a pretty stout unit, the offense has been arguably the worst in the league. There's been inconsistency at quarterback, they don't run the ball nearly as they would like to and, most importantly, they're the least productive offense in terms of scoring points.
The only two wins the Patriots have pulled off this season are a 15-10 victory over the Jets on the road in Week 3, then they upset the Bills with a 29-25 win at home in Week 7. While the Patriots have had some one-score losses against such as the Eagles and Dolphins, they've also been blown out by the Cowboys (38-3) and Saints (34-0).
The alarming trend coming into this game for the Patriots is a horrendous skid on offense. The Patriots have mustered only 13 points over the past three games, which has left their defense out to dry as they've given up only 26 points during that same stretch. Given the play of his defense, and the multiple times they've played playoff teams tough this season, never count out a Belichick-coached team.
THE QUARTERBACK
Unlike any other matchup they've have seen this season, the Steelers have to prepare for two quarterbacks, and have to do it on a short week.
The Patriots have relied on either Mac Jones or Bailey Zappe throughout the season, though neither quarterback has done enough to call himself the unquestioned starter. Zappe has been more in Belichick's favor lately, but his play leaves a lot to be desired.
Zappe is better at navigating the pocket and extending plays, but he's consistently inaccurate, which makes the passing game nonexistent:
— DK Pittsburgh Sports (@DKPSmedia) December 5, 2023
Prior to Zappe taking over, Jones simply wasn't getting it done. While he completed a respectable 64.9% of his passes in 11 starts, Jones threw only 10 touchdowns during that time and threw an alarming 12 interceptions. Zappe hasn't been all that better in five appearances and one start. He's thrown two interceptions in 64 pass attempts, and has yet to throw a touchdown pass this season.
The Patriots have a real problem at quarterback. The Steelers aren't the best in pass defense, but the Steelers' pass rush should be able to pressure whoever is under center as the Patriots have surrendered 30 sacks in 2023.
THE OFFENSE
While the Patriots don't have a legitimate quarterback, they still have some targets in the passing game that can threaten the Steelers defense.
DeVante Parker and former Steeler JuJu Smith-Schuster stand out as obvious threats, but there are a couple of under-the-radar guys that the Steelers have to account for, especially on possession downs. Tight end Pharaoh Brown has seven receptions for 170 yards for the year and is averaging 24.3 yards per reception. He has five receptions in 2023 of at least 20 yards. Given the Steelers' weakness at off-ball linebacker, especially if Elandon Roberts is ruled out of Thursday night's game, Brown could be a weapon used in a similar manner as the Cardinals used Trey McBride and test the middle of the Steelers' defense.
In addition, rookie receiver Demario Douglas is second on the Patriots with 36 receptions and leads the team with 410 yards. Douglas needs seven receptions to tie Deion Branch for the most receptions by a rookie receiver under Bill Belichick. Branch had 43 receptions for 489 yards as a rookie in 2002.
If there is a strength of the Patriots offense, it's with the running game. It's still not a group that ranks high in the NFL. They're averaging only 103.7 yards per game on the ground, which is 21st in the NFL. And the focal point of the running game, Rhamondre Stevenson, left last week's loss to the Chargers in the first quarter with an ankle injury. So, the Patriots' rushing attack could struggle without this guy being able to do this to the Steelers' defense:
— DK Pittsburgh Sports (@DKPSmedia) December 5, 2023
This really isn't hyperbole. This is a bad offense. Really bad. Worse than the Steelers. They're averaging 12.3 points per game, which is dead last in the NFL. They convert only 33.1% of their third downs, which ranks 28th in the NFL. Their 4.7 yards per play is only better than the Browns, Jets, Panthers and Giants. It would be an all-time failure for the Steelers to lay another egg this week, especially if they let this offense do anything of significance against them.
THE DEFENSE
For as bad as the Patriots are on offense, they make up for it with a much better unit on the other side of the ball. They don't wow folks with flash or splash plays. New England has taken the ball away only 11 times this season -- only three teams have less. But, they're holding opposing offenses to only 4.9 yards per play, which is tied for sixth in the NFL.
Everything begins up front with a formidable rush defense that's allowing only 88.7 yards per game on the ground, which ranks third in the NFL, and allowing only 3.2 yards per carry, the best in football. The Patriots have a group of linebackers that excel in run defense, including Jahlani Tavai, Ja'Whaun Bentley and Anfernee Jennings, along with Mack Wilson Sr. as a fourth linebacker. Add safeties Kyle Dugger and Jabrill Peppers into the mix, and the Patriots have several players that can defend the run against any team. Even Jonathan Jones and Myles Bryant are good run defenders at the cornerback position.
Long story short, this defense is capable of suffocating offenses that try to run the football on them. Just last week, Chargers' dynamic running back Austin Ekeler was held to 18 yards on 14 carries:
— DK Pittsburgh Sports (@DKPSmedia) December 5, 2023
If there's an area of the Patriots' defense that can be exploited, it's in pass coverage. While their pass defense ranks right in the middle of the pack, allowing 221.8 yards per game though the air, the Patriots' Expected Points Added (EPA) on pass plays ranks fourth-worst in the NFL. In other words, they've been fortunate at times by opposing offenses making mistakes through the air (missed throws, dropped passes, etc.) rather than truly shutting things down through the air.
Nevertheless, the Patriots have allowed just 26 points over the last three games. This defense has really hit its stride during this recent stretch, which comes at unfortunate time for a Steelers' offense that just struggled to do just about anything against a bad Cardinals defense.
THE SPECIAL TEAMS
Despite Mike Tomlin's praises of the Patriots' special teams unit, this might be the worst the Steelers have faced all season. Chad Ryland handles placekicking duties, but he's managed to make only 66.7% of his field goal attempts. His six misses on the year have been evenly distributed between the 30-39, 40-49, and 50-plus ranges. In addition, Bryce Baringer has been inconsistent as the team's punter, despite pinning 44.4% of his punts inside the 20-yard line. He's susceptible to the occasional shank. In addition, the Patriots return game has been nonexistent all season. The only saving grace on special teams comes in the form of Brenden Schooler, who is tied for the NFL lead with 11 special teams tackles.
THE INJURY REPORT
• Rhamondre Stevenson, RB (ankle) -- Stevenson was listed as a non-participant all week, and further testing on his ankle revealed a significant enough injury to sideline him for multiple weeks. He's officially ruled out for Thursday night. That'll leave more snaps for Ezekiel Elliott and Ty Montgomery II at running back.
• Kayshon Boutte, WR (shoulder) -- Boutte was unable to practice last week and missed the team's loss to the Chargers on Sunday. He's also missed practice this week, and has been ruled out for Thursday night.
• Demario Douglas, WR (concussion) -- Douglas hasn't returned to practice since entering the NFL's concussion protocol after a Week 12 loss to the Giants. He's officially out for Thursday night. In his absence, Tyquan Thornton should continue to see an increased role alongside Parker and Smith-Schuster.
• DeVante Parker, WR (knee) -- It's unknown just how much Parker's knee is bothering him, but he's at least maintained a limited status for the Patriots' practice reports this week. It appears he's got a decent shot to suit up Thursday night, though he's listed as questionable for the game.
• JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR (ankle) -- Same as Parker, Smith-Schuster has been listed as a limited participant all week in practice, leaving a realistic avenue to play his former team on Thursday night. Also same as Parker, Smith-Schuster is listed as questionable.
• Chris Board, LB (back) -- Board's been limited all week, but he was removed from the injury report on Wednesday. He's cleared to play. Board is one of the Patriots' depth options at linebacker.
• Trent Brown, OT (ankle, hand) -- Brown missed two games just a couple weeks ago, but returned against the Giants in Week 12. He's been limited this week, but that could be the Patriots' way of being careful with Brown. The team's starting left tackle is officially questionable for Thursday night.
• Christian Barmore, DL (shoulder) -- Barmore's been limited all week, and he's officially questionable for Thursday night. He's one of the Patriots' starters on the interior of their defensive line, so their front would be weakened should Barmore be inactive.
• Riley Reiff, OL (knee) -- Reiff has been limited this week as he tries to work his way back from injured reserve. His 21-day window will expire before the Steelers and Patriots take the field Thursday night, and the Patriots ruled him out on Wednesday. It appears he might be done for the season, though the Patriots could activate him and then make him one of their inactives prior to the game.
• Ezekiel Elliott, RB (thigh) -- After being listed as a limited participant on Monday, the Patriots removed Elliott from their injury report. He appears to be good to go on Thursday, and will likely be in line for the bulk of the carries out of the backfield with Stevenson sidelined.
• Sidy Sow, G (ankle) -- Same as Elliott, the Patriots' starting right guard was listed as a limited participant on Monday, then was removed from the injury report on Tuesday. Barring any setbacks, he should be expected to play Thursday night.
• Shaun Wade, CB (illness) -- Wade exited Sunday's game with an illness and did not return. After being listed as a non-participant on Monday, the Patriots removed him from their injury report on Tuesday. While that seemed like an indication he was going to be good to go for Thursday night, Wade was ruled out on Wednesday's injury report. With Wade out, J.C. Jackson should continue seeing increased opportunities in the Patriots' secondary.
• Deatrich Wise Jr., DL (illness) -- Wise was listed as a non-participant in Monday's practice, but he was among the four players that the Patriots removed from their injury report on Tuesday. One of New England's starting defensive end appears to be in line to play Thursday night.
QUOTABLE
"Yeah, it’s frustrating. Very frustrating. I’m frustrated, I know we’re all frustrated. We’ve just got to keep going, keep competing. I’ll tell you one thing, I’m going to keep competing and keep trying to be my best, keep trying to be better and try to be the best version of myself I can for this team." -- TE Hunter Henry on the level of frustration on offense, getting shutout, 6-0, by the Chargers
"We are going to stay together. We have high character guys, we are no stranger to adversity. Everyone here has faced tough times in their life. This is not nothing, but we are all competitive and we are powerful men. What we are putting forth right now just is not it." -- S Jabrill Peppers on the Patriots staying together as a team despite 2-10 record
"Physically, it's tough. It's a quick turnaround. You try to double down on everything that you can, as far as recovery. And then just mentally, get as much information on the (upcoming) team as you can, and know they're probably going to keep it as simple as they can, not having a long week to game plan. Usually those games come down to fundamentals, what team can do the basics and executions over and over." -- CB Jonathan Jones on the challenge of playing Thursday night games
“He’s an instinctive player. He’s very quick off the ball. He has a good edge pass rush. He’s got really good lower-body strength and balance. He does a very good job of closing to the quarterback and rarely gets knocked off balance. He might get hit but he’s able to play through contact and stay on his track. He really does a good job of condensing the pocket. Even when he doesn’t hit the quarterback, he forces the quarterback into a smaller space that helps everybody else who’s rushing -- [Alex] Highsmith or whoever the other edge player is. And the guys inside. He’s a very good pursuit player. ... He makes a lot of plays from the backside, or makes plays when you think he’s blocked, he’s out of the play, and he’s able to cross-face the blocker and get back in the play. He has enough speed and desire and motor to get to some of those plays from the backside when you think that he should be a non-factor -- and he ends up making a play for a six, seven-yard gain. Well, sometimes those are some of the biggest plays in the game because if he doesn’t make it, it might go for 40. Yeah, all those things. He has good ball awareness. He knocks down a lot of balls. Because of his awareness of sometimes the route that the back runs, so he can anticipate where the ball is going to be thrown. ... But also he gets in close proximity of the quarterback so that if he gets his hand in the throwing lane, he’s able to either affect the throw or possibly get his hand on the ball. He has that really good reach move with his left hand. He has a lot of strip sacks on that through the years, where he’s engaged with the blocker and still is able to knock the ball out of the quarterback’s hand with that left-arm reach. I’d say that’s kind of his patented move. He’s really, really good at it.” -- Head coach Bill Belichick on what makes T.J. Watt great
