Should anybody be surprised to see T.J. Watt's name among the top of the list of candidates for the 2023 NFL Defensive Player of the Year?
Perhaps quietly, that is how things are shaking out with two games to go for the Steelers in the regular season.
According to odds from DraftKings Sportsbook, Watt has the third-highest odds at winning his second award in three seasons. His odds of plus-320 check in behind Micah Parsons' minus-115 and Myles Garrett's plus-110 to win it. The implied probability of Watt winning the award, based on his odds, is 23.8 percent.
(In those betting terms, any wager of $10 on Watt's +320 odds would net a $32 profit if won, and a wager of $100 would win $320.)
What does Watt think of his name being back inside of that conversation?
His response was par for the course:
"I'm trying to beat Seattle, man," Watt said after Friday's practice on the South Side, when I asked about the possibility of earning the honor for the second time.
Watt leads the NFL with 17.0 sacks, one ahead of the Bengals' Trey Hendrickson. If Watt finishes with the most this season, he would be the only player in NFL history to lead the league in sacks three times in his career. Watt achieved 15.0 sacks in 2020 and 22.5 sacks in 2021 to pace the NFL.
Watt's 33 quarterback hits are tied for first in the league, his three fumble recoveries are tied for second, his four forced fumbles are tied for fifth, and his 16.0 tackles for loss are tied for sixth league-wide.
Since sacks became an official statistic in 1982, three players have achieved all of 17.0 sacks, 16.0 tackles for loss, 30 QB hits, four forced fumbles, and three fumble recoveries in a season since: Jared Allen (2011), J.J. Watt (2014), and T.J. Watt (2021 and 2023). The Watt brothers won Defensive Player of the Year in those 2014 and 2021 seasons.
"He's able to do it week in and week out regardless of what the circumstances are, regardless of who they have in front of him, or how many people they have assigned to him," Patrick Peterson told me. "He finds a way to make a play each and every week. It's hard to deny a guy from that award that countlessly puts that on tape week in and week out."
Watt set the stage for another dominant season from the jump in 2023. He gathered three sacks, forced two fumbles, and recovered a fumble to open the season against the 49ers. Then, he gathered another sack and recovered a fumble for he go-ahead touchdown in Week 2 against the Browns:
— DK Pittsburgh Sports (@DKPSmedia) December 29, 2023
Watt has registered five games of two or more sacks, and he has logged at least two quarterback hits in 11 of his 15 games this season. On Saturday against the Bengals, Watt recorded a sack, forced a fumble, defended a pass, and hit the quarterback four times.
"I feel like he's a guy who has a hell of a motor, he's a guy who always knows what he's doing," Keeanu Benton told me. "He's been in the league for a long time, so he kind of knows the sets and stuff like that and knows how to get after that passer. He's a guy who we complement well off of because you can draw a picture in your mind of where they're going to slide. He's a guy who is going to force a lot of havoc and guys are going to have to scheme around him, and we know that. It makes it easier for us in the inside. He impacts the whole game, in my opinion."
Benton came from the same Wisconsin program that brought Watt to the NFL. The Watt brothers have their reputation up North at that university, but Benton has been able to experience playing next to the fellow former Badger T.J. in his first professional season.
"You know, it's crazy because -- I was just talking about this -- he does it so often that it's like, everybody's like, 'oh, T.J. got another one.' It don't feel surreal but when you watch it and look at it, 17 is a lot of damn sacks."
And, Watt's reputation carries as a strong one across the league's locker rooms. Peterson is in his first season in Pittsburgh, but his outside-looking-in opinion of Watt was a strong one.
"He's a bad ass player," Peterson said. "You've got to make sure he's accounted for each and every time the quarterback is under center. You have to know where 90 is at all times, and being here with him an entire calendar year, the coaches do a great job of making sure that they put him in the right position to always go forward and be as special as he can be."
