Kyle Dubas took a bit of heat this summer for not doing much to address goaltending when reshaping the roster.
Sure, he shipped out Casey DeSmith in the Erik Karlsson deal and signed Alex Nedeljkovic in free agency, a move seen at the time as anything from a downgrade to a slight improvement at best. Most of the flack Dubas caught was over Tristan Jarry's five-year extension worth $5.375 million a year. Even if Jarry got past the injury issues that marred his entire 2022-23 season, could he be the No. 1 goaltender the Penguins need to be a contender? The free agent market was weak at goaltender, and the cost to go out and land a No. 1 goaltender via a trade would have been high. Dubas showed his confidence in Jarry with the extension.
As the Penguins near the midway point of the season, it's looking like Dubas' work in goal might have been his best of the summer. Jarry's performance in the Penguins' 4-2 win over the Blues Saturday night at PPG Paints Arena was just another example of that.
Jarry can be expected to bail the Penguins out on the penalty-kill or at even strength at times. He probably shouldn't have to bail out the Penguins on their own power play as often as he has this season, but that was his brightest moment on Saturday.
The Penguins were holding onto a 2-1 lead after getting goals from Drew O'Connor and Evgeni Malkin. They were on the power play late in the second period when a bad pass attempt from Karlsson on a power play was picked off in the Blues' end by Blues defenseman Torey Krug. Krug, joined by former Penguins Kasperi Kapanen and Oskar Sundqvist, led a 3-on-1 rush up the other way with Karlsson as the only man back for the Penguins.
Jarry made the pad save on Krug, kicking his left leg out to direct the puck back toward the open ice, where Jake Guentzel was able to recover it and start the rush back the other way:
— DK Pittsburgh Sports (@DKPSmedia) December 31, 2023
"It's just trying to stay tall," Jarry said of that moment afterward. "It's trying to stay in the moment and make the most of it, I guess. You're obviously there to bail the guys out. I think the guys always do a great job in front of me, so it's nice when I can help them."
Jeff Carter scored to make it 3-1 in the final frame before a redirect tally from Kapanen brought the Blues back within a goal. Sidney Crosby put the game away with a late empty-net tally. In a game that close, Jarry bailing out his teammates on the power play of all situations could have been a difference-maker in the outcome of the entire game.
Jarry's job hasn't been made easy, especially in situations like the one above. Among the 18 goaltenders with at least 100 power play minutes played, Jarry faces the fifth-most rush attempts against at 3.81/60, per Natural Stat Trick. So, he's had some practice.
Jarry's performance in all situations this season relative to his workload can be measured, and it illustrates the leap in his play compared to last season. The stat "expected goals" is a goofy-sounding metric that simply recognizes that not all scoring chances are created equally. It takes different factors that go into a scoring chance -- like distance, or whether it was off a rush or a rebound, and assigns the chance a value based on the league-average probability that a scoring chance of that type becomes a goal. The end result is a total number to represent the number of goals that would be expected on league average. When looking at a single game, or a team's performance over the course of a season, the number can help measure goaltenders, too. Say a team's expected goals against in a game was 2.35, and the goaltender allowed five. That would mean his goals saved above expected was -2.65, and you could say that given the quantity and quality of scoring chances he faced, he probably let in two or three goals more than he should have.
Among goaltenders who played at least 10 games last season, Jarry's goals saved above expected was -2.8. That's in the negatives, and not terrible for the 47 games he played, but he wasn't doing them any favors. He wasn't "stealing" games.
This season is different -- through his first 23 games of the season, Jarry's goals saved above expected has been 9.7, good enough for eighth in the league.
Some of the more traditional goaltending metrics aren't quite sufficient. His four shutouts lead all goaltenders. Among goaltenders with at least 10 games played, Jarry's 2.47 goals-against average ranks 10th and his .916 save percentage is tied for 12th. But those don't take into account the quality of shots faced like the goals saved above expected stat does.
Jarry finished Saturday night with 25 saves on 27 shots, and a positive goals saved above expected. The Blues recorded 2.35 expected goals, Jarry allowed two.
It was Jarry's second win in a row, after stopping all 22 shots faced on Long Island on Wednesday to shut out the Islanders, 7-0.
It goes beyond Jarry, though. Between the 24 appearances from Jarry this season, 10 from Nedeljkovic and three from Magnus Hellberg, the Penguins' team save percentage is the fourth-best in the league at .913. The Penguins are getting strong contributions from all their goaltenders, and that competition pushes them all to be better, which was one of Dubas' goals in building out the goaltending this summer.
"I think the competition is an important thing for the group as well, in addition to pushing Tristan and showing that we have suitable people there," Dubas said in the offseason. "I think regardless of what the contract status of the players is, we need to build that competition up and also protect our depth and give our team the best chance to win every night."
It's also fair to say that Nedeljkovic has been a pleasant surprise, and is probably pushing Jarry even more than the team hoped when they signed him this summer. Nedeljkovic's .917 save percentage and 2.64 goals-against average are both his best since his 2020-21 season in Carolina, where he posted a .932 save percentage and 1.90 goals-against average.
"It's been awesome this year," Jarry said of his tandem with Nedeljkovic. "Just the two of us, we've both been playing well. We're both pushing each other. I think that's how you stay at your best, when you're able to practice well and you're able to do the little things I think that translates into your game."
On a night like this, when it's a close game and Jarry has to come up with big saves to bail out the team in front of him, having someone playing that well in net breeds confidence through the rest of the team. It's a feeling the players have become accustomed to as of late, regardless of who is in net.
"Whoever is back there is going to give us a chance to win, which is a huge confidence boost for us," O'Connor said. "Jars and Ned have both been real solid. It's really helped us out."
"Our goalies have been playing really well for us this last stretch," said Harkins. "I mean, I can't say enough good things. They've got to be our best player most nights, and they definitely have been. Ned and Jars, the last couple, they've been dynamite."
The Penguins' play as of late has brought them within just two points of the last wild card spot in the Eastern Conference, and their goaltending has been a key part of that.
THE ESSENTIALS
• Boxscore
• Live file
• Scoreboard
• Standings
• Statistics
• Schedule
THE HIGHLIGHTS
THE THREE STARS
As selected at PPG Paints Arena:
1. Evgeni Malkin, Penguins C
2. Jake Guentzel, Penguins LW
3. Robert Thomas, Blues C
THE IN-GAME INJURIES
• Penguins: None
• Blues: None
THE LINEUPS
Sullivan’s lines and pairings:
Jake Guentzel - Sidney Crosby - Rickard Rakell
Reilly Smith - Evgeni Malkin - Drew O'Connor
Radim Zohorna - Lars Eller - Valtteri Puustinen
Jansen Harkins - Noel Acciari - Jeff Carter
Marcus Pettersson - Kris Letang
Ryan Graves - Erik Karlsson
John Ludvig - Chad Ruhwedel
And for Drew Bannister's Blues:
Pavel Buchnevich - Robert Thomas - Jordan Kyrou
Brandon Saad - Brayden Schenn - Jake Neighbours
Alexey Toropchenko - Kevin Hayes - Kasperi Kapanen
Mackenzie MacEachern - Oskar Sundqvist - Sammy Blais
Nick Leddy - Colton Parayko
Torey Krug - Matthew Kessel
Marco Scandella - Scott Perunovich
THE SCHEDULE
The Penguins close out 2023 with a 6:08 p.m. meeting with the Islanders on Sunday at PPG Paints Arena. There won't be a morning skate because of the back-to-back, so Mike Sullivan will meet with reporters at 4 p.m. instead.
THE FEED
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