Despite seeming down and out with three games remaining, the Steelers rallied to rattle off three straight wins and clinch the final seed in the AFC playoffs. Though Pittsburgh is one of the hottest teams at the right time, their first matchup is against a Bills team that's won five straight games of their own, storming back from 6-6 to win the AFC East in the final week of the season.
Here's a snapshot of what the Bills bring into the Wild-card round:
BUFFALO BILLS
Record: 11-6
Standing: First, AFC East
Last result: Won over Dolphins, 21-14
THE TREND
The Bills entered the 2023 season with not only Super Bowl aspirations, but Super Bowl expectations. Led by superstar quarterback Josh Allen and a loaded roster, the Bills were thought to be one of the clear favorites to represent the AFC in Super Bowl LVIII. Though the Bills enter the postseason as the No. 2 seed in the conference, how they got there was unexpected.
Buffalo's season opened with a shocking overtime loss to the Jets, especially since Aaron Rodgers was injured on New York's fourth play of the game. After winning three straight in convincing fashion, most thought Week 1 might have been an outlier. Then, doubt crept in again. Buffalo lost to the Jaguars in London, barely beat the lowly Giants by five points, then dropped four of their next six games with losses to the Patriots, Bengals, Broncos and Eagles.
At 6-6, the Bills were reeling. Five of their six losses came against teams that wouldn't end up making the playoffs. However, head coach Sean McDermott led his team down the stretch to a fiery finish, rattling off five straight wins to storm back and not only clinch a playoff berth, but also snatch the AFC East title from the Dolphins on the road in the season finale. Their four other wins included a 20-17 win over the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium, a 31-10 shellacking of the Cowboys, a two-point win over the Chargers on the road and a 27-21 victory over the Patriots in their final home game of the regular season.
Despite looking down and out just five weeks ago, the Bills now have 11/2 odds to hoist the franchise's first Lombardi Trophy, the third-best odds of the 14 teams in the postseason. There are a lot of reasons to buy into the Bills, including a diverse offense with playmakers throughout, a pass defense that stresses quarterbacks into mistakes and an unrelenting pass rush. But, there's no question the biggest reason of them all is Allen.
THE QUARTERBACK
This is what ultimately puts the Bills over the top as one of the best teams in the NFL. Whenever you have a legitimate franchise quarterback, you always have a puncher's chance in any game, and Allen is one of the best quarterbacks in the league.
Unlike a lot of the premier quarterbacks in the NFL, Allen isn't all that efficient. He's definitely followed along a similar path of greats such as Brett Favre and Ben Roethlisberger. It isn't always pretty, and sometimes there will be plays that will leave you dumbfounded. But for all those plays, there are even more that only he can make.
Allen finished the 2023 season completing 66.5% of his passes, ranked fourth in the NFL with 4,306 yards, ranked fifth in the NFL with 29 touchdowns and threw 18 interceptions, the second-most in football. His 7.4 yards per attempt also ranks eighth among qualifying quarterbacks. The 18 picks epitomizes the risks he's willing to take to make big plays. But, when he makes big plays, whether it be with his arm or his legs, he'll leave a lot of people with their jaws on the floor:
— DK Pittsburgh Sports (@DKPSmedia) January 12, 2024
That's what makes Allen truly dangerous. He's not quite like Lamar Jackson, but he's also built a bit different. Allen carried the ball 111 times this season, gaining 524 yards and rushed for an astounding 15 touchdowns, which is tied with Jalen Hurts for second-most in the NFL. Allen will use his legs on both designed runs and, as you can see in the play above, when improvising in the passing game. It's the ultimate game-changer when Allen can pull off plays like that.
Allen has had success against the Steelers during his career, winning three of four games. He's completed 58% of his passes for 1,071 yards, eight touchdowns and three interceptions in those games, while also rushing for 142 yards and a touchdown on 27 carries. In the previous matchup between the Steelers and Bills (2022, Week 5), Allen went off, completing 20 of 31 passes for 424 yards, four touchdowns and an interception. Much like Sunday, the Steelers were without T.J. Watt in that game.
THE OFFENSE
The Bills' offense isn't Allen or nothing. His supporting cast is perhaps the strongest we've seen in recent years and can hurt defenses in a number of ways. In other words, Allen isn't the only reason why the Bills rank fifth in the NFL with 5.7 yards per play.
Starting on the ground, the Bills boast the seventh-ranked rushing offense with an average of 130.1 yards per game. Obviously, Allen's 524 rushing yards is a contributing factor, but James Cook's emergence as the unquestioned lead back is the main reason for the running game's success. Cook finished fourth in the NFL with 1,122 rushing yards, averaging 4.7 yards per carry. Latavius Murray was initially the complementary back to Cook, rushing for 300 yards on 79 carries in 16 total appearances. However, his role has dwindled down to nonexistence over the past few weeks in favor of veteran rusher Leonard Fournette. Core special-teamer Ty Johnson also contributes every now and then as a third-stringer.
While I wouldn't necessarily say the Bills have a "high-octane" passing game, they have a number of ways to hurt defenses through the air. It all starts with Stefon Diggs, who's arguably the best route runner in the game. While the issues between Allen and Diggs are well documented, Diggs is still a productive No. 1 receiver, as he caught 107 passes for 1,183 yards and eight touchdowns. He's complemented by deep threat Gabe Davis, who torched the Steelers last season, and Khalil Shakir, who's a dangerous slot receiver in his own right. Davis and Shakir take chunks out of opposing defense, as the duo averaged 16.6 yards and 15.7 yards per catch, respectively. Davis also added seven receiving touchdowns. Buffalo's got a formidable trio at receiver. Plus, Cook is a legitimate option out of the backfield with 44 catches for 445 yards and four touchdowns this season.
Where the Bills' offense becomes truly difficult to defend is with the duo they have at tight end. Buffalo pairs their depth at receiver with the likes of Dawson Knox and rookie Dalton Kincaid, who's already emerged as a legitimate threat in the receiving game. Kincaid finished the season second on the Bills with 73 receptions, the most by a Bills tight end in a season, and his 673 receiving yards was only behind Diggs and Davis. Kincaid is not only a security blanket for Allen on possession downs, but can stretch any defense in the league:
— DK Pittsburgh Sports (@DKPSmedia) January 12, 2024
The Steelers' best way to combat dynamic offenses is to wreak havoc in the backfield, which can lead to sacks and turnovers. Sacks are going to be hard to come by in this game, though. Not only because Watt will be sidelined with a knee injury, but the Bills give up the least amount of sacks in football (24). And, they're even better at protecting the quarterback when playing at home. For Pittsburgh, holding this offense to settle for field goals instead of touchdowns would be a major victory. Weather forecast aside, slowing down this offense will not be easy.
THE DEFENSE
Much like the offense, the Bills' defense is one of the better overall units in the game. However, there is one weakness that plays into the Steelers' favor.
First, let's focus on the strengths of Buffalo's defense. And, there isn't an area in which they are stronger than defending the pass. First, they are one of the best teams in getting after the quarterback, mainly because they can do it from any and all directions. The Bills rank fourth in the NFL with 54 sacks, with Leonard Floyd's 10.5 sacks from the edge leading the team. Then Ed Oliver creates a ton of pressure from the interior, and he ranks second on the team with 9.5 sacks. What's more, the Bills create a ton of pressure on the quarterback with blitz rate of only 23.5%, which ranks 18th in the NFL. It's always ideal when teams can drop seven into coverage and still put the quarterback under pressure.
When quarterbacks do get the ball away, the Bills have a phenomenal secondary to defend the pass. Leading the way is a strong trio of cornerbacks: Rasul Douglas and Christian Benford on the outside, and Taron Johnson as the slot corner, who was named second team All-Pro on Friday. Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde provide a strong complement at safety, though they are much more impactful in run defense, especially Poyer. Douglas is the star of the group, as he's one of the best shutdown cornerbacks in the game. Not only is he tied for fourth in the NFL with five interceptions, he has a phenomenal 40.1 passer rating against, and he's only been targeted 38 times in 313 coverage snaps. His instincts are phenomenal and his ability to break on a ball is amazing:
— DK Pittsburgh Sports (@DKPSmedia) January 12, 2024
The weakness of the Bills' defense lies in how they defend the run. They aren't horrible by any means. They rank 15th in the NFL with 110.6 yards allowed per game. DaQuon Jones is a solid run stopper on the interior and linebacker Terrel Bernard leads the Bills with 143 tackles because of his strengths in run defense. However, this is a group that allowed 4.6 yards per carry during the season. Only four teams had a worse mark than that. Even during their five-game winning streak in which they've been better against the run, they rank 17th in the NFL in rushing success rate against, and rank 26th in rushing EPA (expected points added) against.
This is a Bills team that can be run on. And, if the weather plays out the way it's being forecasted, that should aid a Steelers team that, since Week 9, has averaged 145.2 rushing yards per game, ranks eighth in rushing EPA and ranks fifth in rushing success rate. And, the best way to defend Allen and the myriad of weapons on offense is to keep them on the sideline.
THE SPECIAL TEAMS
Tyler Bass handles placekicking duties for Buffalo, and he's had a decent season. He's made 24 of 29 field goal attempts with a long of 54 yards. And, he's kicked in Buffalo for four seasons now. The elements won't deter him. Sam Martin is a solid punter for Buffalo, averaging 45.8 yards per punt with a long of 70 yards. Of his 51 punts, 24 have been placed inside the 20-yard line and only three have gone for touchbacks. Deonte Harty provides a home run threat in the return game. He was an All-Pro as a returner with the Saints in 2019, and returned a punt 96 yards for a touchdown in a critical spot in last week's win over the Dolphins.
THE INJURY REPORT
• Gabe Davis, WR (knee) -- Davis suffered a PCL sprain in the Bills' season finale, and followed that up with two missed practices on Wednesday and Thursday. The Bills ruled Davis out on Friday, leaving a void in the Bills' passing game. With Davis out, look for Shakir and Trent Sherfield to see added opportunities behind Diggs.
• Taylor Rapp, S (calf) -- Like Davis, Rapp did not practice Wednesday or Thursday, and was ruled out of Sunday's game before the Bills even practiced on Friday. Though Rapp is behind Poyer and Hyde on the depth chart, he still contributed 50 tackles, one interception, two passes defensed and one fumble recovery in 16 games this season.
• Rasul Douglas, CB (knee) -- It's an interesting situation for Douglas. He's the Bills' top cornerback, but did not practice all week with a knee injury. Typically, an entire week of missing practice rules a player out, but the Bills officially listed Douglas as questionable for Sunday. His absence would obviously leave a significant void in the Bills' secondary, though cornerback is a deep position for Buffalo.
• Tyrel Dodson, LB (shoulder) -- Dodson started the week as a limited participant in practice, then didn't practice on Thursday, then was able to return in a limited capacity on Friday. He's officially questionable for Sunday. Dodson starts alongside Bernard at off-ball linebacker, so if he's inactive, the middle of the Bills' defense will be a tad weaker than initially expected.
• Josh Allen, QB (neck) -- Allen was listed on the Bills' injury report all week, but was a full participant in every practice. He's cleared to play. Nothing to see here.
• Dion Dawkins, T (hand/illness) -- The Bills' starting left tackle started the week as a limited participant, but then did not practice on Thursday, putting his availability into question. However, he returned to practice as a full participant on Friday and carries no injury designation into Sunday's game.
• Ty Johnson, RB (concussion) -- Johnson was limited all week in practice, but carries no injury designation into Sunday, suggesting he's cleared the NFL's concussion protocol. Johnson is the third-string running back and a core special-teamer.
• Damar Hamlin, S (shoulder) -- Hamlin was a full participant in practice all week and is cleared to play. However, he's been inactive the past two weeks, and been inactive four of the last seven weeks. He's far down the pecking order at safety, though Rapp's absence could earn him a helmet come Sunday morning.
• Micah Hyde, S (neck) -- The Bills' starting safety was a full participant all week. He's cleared to play.
• Deonte Hardy, WR (personal) -- Hardy was excused from practice on Thursday for personal reasons, but was taken off Friday's injury report. No concerns for the Bills' return man.
• Dawson Knox, TE (illness) -- Knox popped up on Thursday's injury report with an illness, but returned to practice Friday as a full participant. He's cleared to play.
QUOTABLE
"You have to make sure that from a mindset standpoint and how we deploy our resources, we have to stop the run. We have to do a great job of doing that from a variety of looks so we don't compromise one thing in pursuit of trying to slow down something else. Stopping the run and defending the run is an 11-man operation. We're going to need everyone involved. That includes our corners and safeties. At the same time, we can't give up plays over the top. ... It's a delicate blend. We have to make sure whatever we are doing, we are aware of how explosive they are via the ground and also in the air." -- Assistant head coach/defensive line coach Eric Washington on balancing stopping the Steelers' ground attack while preventing their big-play ability
"They're playing at a very high level right now. They ruled Watt out, but that doesn't mean we're in the clear. They've got a very good defensive line. One of the better players interior that has played this game in Cam Heyward. He's an animal. (Alex) Highsmith on the edge, he is playing as high level as anybody in the league. We're going to have our hands full. We have to make sure we have a good game plan. We're communicating well and it's win or go home." -- Josh Allen on the Steelers' defense
"They're playing good football. You don't look at records. This is a good football team. Undefeated under Mason Rudolph. Well coached. Playing good on both sides of the ball and special teams. When you watch the last three games in particular, they are playing high quality football." -- Sean McDermott on facing the Steelers
"It's a physical group. We know the task at hand. Whether they are physical or not, if we lose, we still go home. They could be more finesse, trying to get the ball on the edge like last week. They could be smash mouth like they are. What matters is how we execute and go about our business." -- Ed Oliver on the Steelers' offensive line
"They have been really efficient. They haven't been in any third and longs, it's kind of been third and shorts. They have been managing their yards and consistent and converting their third and shorts." -- DaQuan Jones on the difference with Rudolph at quarterback