Halicke: Steelers abandoned what got them to the playoffs

The Steelers didn't make the playoffs by accident. Sure, they needed help to get in. And sure, they could have been much more convincing if they would have taken care of business against just one of the 2-10 teams they lost to in December.

But, in their 31-17 loss to the Bills in the AFC wild-card playoff, the Steelers deviated from the formula that earned them a chance to knock off the conference's No. 2 seed.

When Mason Rudolph was given the reins to the offense, a big reason for the its success during a three-game win streak that revived their season was by making opposing defenses choose between defending the run or pass. And then, the Steelers would make them pay for overselling their choice.

In simpler terms, pick your poison. Load the box and sell out to stop the run? Then we'll hit you with intermediate and deep throws because guys such as Diontae Johnson and George Pickens will get open. Now you lighten the box to take those passes away? Now we're going to shove Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren down your throats.

This mentality wasn't better exemplified than in the win over the Seahawks, but it played out in similar fashion against the Bengals and even in the monsoon played in Baltimore, though the latter is hard to judge due to the elements.

But against the Bills, the Steelers went in with a strict game plan to assert physical dominance on the ground, for better or worse. That was clear from the first play of the game. But, so was the Bills' plan to counterpunch the Steelers' desire to control the game with their rushing attack:

The Steelers don't completely telegraph the run here as they come out in 11 personnel (one running back, one tight end), which suggests the possibility for play-action. However, the Bills did not fall for it, overloaded the box to sell out to defend the run and kept Harris to a minimal 1-yard gain.

The Bills overloaded the box early and often, especially on run-heavy downs. The Steelers ran 15 first-down plays in the first half, and were wildly unsuccessful on them. They ran the ball on 10 of those plays, gaining a total of 31 yards. However, four of the first five plays on first down were runs, all from under center, all against loaded boxes, gaining six total yards.

On the fourth first-down play, the first play after the Bills took a 14-0 lead after Pickens' fumble, the Steelers came out in 13 personnel (one running back, three tight ends) -- a run-heavy grouping -- and ran the ball into a loaded box for one measly yard. The Steelers unsurprisingly went three and out, giving the ball back to Josh Allen and the high-flying Bills offense that had its way most of the night with the Steelers' defense.

Of the remaining six runs on first down in the first half, the Steelers gained 25 yards. Not terrible, but not exactly asserting any will, either. The most successful run (outside of a nice play call during the two-minute offense) was this 9-yard gain by Harris:

Much like the first play of the game, the Steelers are in 11 personnel with Rudolph under center. But, notice the difference in the Bills defense between the opening play of the game and this one. There are only six defenders in the box on this run. Why? One reason very well could be the Steelers actually changing things up on first down prior to that.

This was the third play of the drive, but also the third first down of the drive. The first one was this play-action beauty to Pat Freiermuth against a Bills defense that was selling everything they had against the run (just look at how many defenders were up close to the line of scrimmage):

And the second one was another play-action pass, only out of the shotgun. And that was a checkdown to Allen Robinson that gained 13 yards. The Steelers made the Bills adjust to respect the pass, and the offense took advantage. The problem is they took far too long to make that adjustment.

The Steelers came into the game knowing the Bills' defense lined up in middle-field open coverages (two high safeties) 58.6% of the time this season, the third-highest rate in the NFL. They were hoping to take advantage of this, but the Bills consistently loaded the box, leaving only one high safety. The problem is the Steelers didn't deviate from the game plan and counterpunch until the fourth drive of the game, the first drive that showed true signs of life, though it ended with a backbreaking interception in the end zone. And the ensuing Buffalo drive ended in a touchdown that made it a 21-0 game, which proved to be an insurmountable lead.

On top of the Steelers taking far too long to adjust to what the Bills were doing on defense, the Steelers didn't test the Buffalo defense when they loaded the box like they did against the Seahawks. Here's a look back at how the Steelers made the Seahawks pay for bringing an extra defender into the box to respect the run:

This was the second play of the drive after the Steelers manhandled the Seahawks on a 14-play, 80-yard drive that ended with an 18-yard touchdown run by Warren. Then, Warren rattled off a 23-yard gain on the first play of the following drive. Even though the Steelers were in the shotgun here, the Seahawks adjusted to try and take away the run with seven defenders in the box (standard nickel defenses have only six defenders in the box), and the Steelers made them pay for it with a 37-yard completion to Pickens on a deep corner route.

Against the Bills, the longest completion by Rudolph traveled 19 yards from the line of scrimmage. Only two of his 39 attempts traveled more than 20 yards from the line of scrimmage. Against the Bills, Rudolph averaged 5.9 air yards per completion and averaged 7.8 intended air yards. Compare that to marks of 6.3 average completed air yards and 9.7 average intended air yards against the Bengals, and 8.1 average completed air yards and 8.0 average intended air yards against the Seahawks.

The Bills are great at limiting long completions, but a better mix of runs and passes, along with a healthy dose of play-action could have provided more opportunities for chunk plays such as this 19-yarder to Johnson:

Watch how Jordan Poyer runs all the way up from the safety position to defend the run, leaving a wide open window for Rudolph to hit Johnson. Plays like these were too few and too far between. The Bills were going to live and die by stopping the run. If the Steelers were going to beat them, it was going to be through the air.

Simply put, the Steelers did not stress the second and third levels of the Bills' defense enough, even though they sold out to stop the run. By the time the Steelers adjusted, it was too late. A 21-0 deficit on the road, in a hostile environment, against one of the best quarterbacks in the league, it's just too deep of a hole to dig out of, even with the Bills missing their best cornerback in Rasul Douglas and losing their top linebacker in Terrel Bernard early in the third quarter.

Surely this wasn't the only reason the Steelers lost this game. Turning the ball over twice and allowing them to result in 14 points the other way is a killer. But, the identity this team had created in the three games with Rudolph that got them to the playoffs was nonexistent Monday evening in Orchard Park, N.Y.

Not often are games lost in the first half, but this one was. And, it's a shame because though the Steelers' chances still would have been slim, they stood a better chance at pulling off an upset had they stuck with what they did to punch their ticket to the game in the first place.