No team within the Power Six conferences of college basketball is in a position like Pitt is in.
Entering conference tournament week and for the second consecutive season, a large portion of the ACC's national reputation is under the limelight. Pitt is, for the second consecutive season, a targeted team within this discourse with respect to the NCAA Tournament bubble.
And it's bringing forth a conversation, for the second consecutive season, of why this is the way it is.
The Panthers are the No. 4 seed in this week's ACC Tournament and will begin play Thursday at 2:30 p.m. against either No. 5-seed Wake Forest, No. 12-seed Notre Dame, or No. 13-seed Georgia Tech at Capital One Arena in Washington, D.C. Should they advance, they will oppose one of No. 1-seed North Carolina, No. 8-seed Virginia Tech, or No. 9-seed Florida State in Friday's tournament semifinal.
It is widely speculated Pitt will have to win both of those games to have a chance -- a chance -- to eke into the field of 68 in the NCAA Tournament, despite finishing the regular season at 21-10 overall and 12-8 within the ACC and recovering from a 1-5 start within conference play.
"I can go a pretty long time speaking on it," Blake Hinson said Tuesday inside of the Petersen Events Center, "but this is a good conference. That goes without being said. Now, historically. The players in it are good. We have multiple projected first-round draft picks in this conference. I don't get it. I don't even really understand why it is the way it is, how they say it. But, at the end of the day, the people who pick these teams, I feel like they know their sports and they know their basketball and they're going to make the right decisions."
According to ESPN Bracketology prognosticator Joe Lunardi, Pitt entered Tuesday's action as one of his "next four teams" out of the NCAA Tournament. Among teams within the Power Six and which have top-four seeds within their respective conference tournaments, only Pitt is mentioned as a "first four out" or "next four out" team. Joining them within that group of eight, among Power Six teams, are Texas A&M (18-13 overall, No. 7 in the SEC), Wake Forest (19-12, No. 5 in the ACC), Villanova (17-14 overall, No. 6 in the Big East), Iowa (18-13, No. 7 in the Big Ten), and Providence (19-12, No. 7 in the Big East). Note, also, that Pitt is the lone Power Six team within this group with at least 20 wins overall.
Lunardi's projected "last four in" are Virginia, Colorado, St. John's, and Indiana State. Virginia finished 22-9 overall and third in the ACC, but Pitt beat the Cavaliers in Charlottesville by 11 points on Feb. 13. Colorado finished 22-9 overall and third in the Pac-12, which is objectively a weaker conference than the ACC. St. John's finished 19-12 and fifth in the Big East.
Here is a look at Lunardi's latest Bracketology as of Tuesday afternoon:
Lunardi has the ACC as a four-bid league. Two of those go to North Carolina and Duke, which are projected two- and three-seeds, respectively.
Pitt enters Tuesday with an NCAA NET ranking of 44th overall. Among the aforementioned Power Six teams within the "first four out" and "next four out" alongside Pitt, only Wake Forest (38th) and Villanova (32nd) are ahead of Pitt in the NET. Among the Power Six's "last four in" teams, Colorado (27th) and St. John's (33rd) are ahead of Pitt in the NET.
"I have no idea (of analytics)," Hinson said. "That's a foreign language to me. I really don't know. What I do know is the teams that typically win get in there. That's what I know, so all I preach is winning."
The ACC saw Miami go to the Final Four in 2023, and Duke and North Carolina reached the Final Four while Miami reached the Elite Eight in 2022. The ACC historically runs deep into the NCAA Tournament, and the conference finished with a 7-5 record and the highest winning percentage among all conferences in the 2023 NCAA Tournament.
Pitt earned a "last four in" spot as a play-in team within the NCAA Tournament while finishing the regular season with an identical record and a worse ACC Tournament seed compared to their 2024 result. Pitt was in first place entering the final game of last regular season before losing to Miami and falling out of a double-bye scenario. Their ACC Tournament win over Georgia Tech, combined with a quality resume, made them a fit team for the selection committee then.
But this is now, and with similar results, Pitt appears to be on the outside looking in.
"This has been a couple of years and I think it's something we need to really look at as a league," Jeff Capel said. "The leadership in our league needs to -- we all, collectively need to take a really hard look because we need to be able to get more teams into the NCAA Tournament. More teams are deserving. We need to take a really hard look and figure out how to get it back to where we get more teams in."
Their resume might be the thing that keeps them out of the field of 68. Pitt is 2-6 in Quadrant 1 games and 5-2 in Quadrant 2 games, and it lost a pair of Quadrant 3 games. According to KenPom, the strength of Pitt's nonconference schedule ranks 340th out of 362 teams nationally. Only Northwestern (21-10), Iowa State (24-7), and TCU (20-11) had worse nonconference schedules among Power Six teams with at least 20 wins.
The loss that likely would keep Pitt out of the NCAA Tournament is its seven-point defeat to Missouri at home Nov. 28. Missouri advanced its record to 6-2 overall with that win, but would finish the regular season by losing 21 of its next 23 games and going winless in SEC play. Pitt's strongest nonconference win is at West Virginia Dec. 6, and the Mountaineers enter Tuesday ranked 157th in the NET and 141st in KenPom.
"Honestly everybody's going to say what they want to say, but me and the guys, we know what we have to do to win and that's what we're going to do," Ish Leggett said. "We're going to go down to D.C. and we're going to take it one game at a time and just hip away each win each day. We'll be fine if we just take it one day at a time."
The Panthers' win at Duke is a quality resume booster. So are the win at Virginia and the 11-3 finish to conference play. But, the totality is considered. Unless Pitt wins a couple of games in the ACC Tournament -- including one over North Carolina -- their NCAA Tournament chances appear slim.
"Everybody's goal is to win the (conference) tournament," Leggett said, "but for us, looking short-term, keeping a day-by-day approach is good for us because looking too far ahead never ends well. Looking at the past it doesn't really matter in the ACC Tournament, so one-day-at-a-time approach and I think we'll be fine."