Mike Sullivan's not a popular man about Pittsburgh these days. He knows it. His team knows it. His superiors know it.
Much as I respect that, as I wrote a week ago from Ottawa, I also understand it. It's not just that these 2023-24 Penguins have underachieved. It's that they've done so in the most deflating, dispiriting ways. And on top of that, despite having two living legends on the roster, one of them still capable of elevating to an elite level in Sidney Crosby, there hasn't been a single Stanley Cup playoff series victory since 2018.
That'll get a head coach fired in any league, but twice over in the NHL.
Again, I get it. Sullivan's earned his share of the blame, as he'd be first to admit.
But I also get this: The general managing of this roster in that same six-year span has ranged from rancid to ... well, Ron Hextall. The great Jim Rutherford had embarked by that stage on the Derick Brassard phase of his tenure here, Hextall and Brian Burke showed up with sledgehammers of their own, the franchise was sold to Fenway Sports Group, Hextall and Burke were replaced by Kyle Dubas carrying both roles, and ... yeah, this hasn't exactly risen above.
I was thinking about this flying home from Newark, N.J., yesterday. About what the stated plan was last summer, between Dubas and Sullivan in their various public comments. And how so, so, so precious little of that came to pass.
And when I say little, what I'm saying is this guy:
He's it. Lars Eller. End of list.
On July 1, the NHL's opening day of free agency, Dubas signed him to a two-year, $4.9 million contract, and he's proceeded to be what everyone -- myself included -- would've hoped, and maybe more, with 14 goals, 12 assists, a stout defensive presence, a remarkable patience in the face of his linemates changing almost nightly, and as much of an independent voice of leadership in that locker room since Patric Hornqvist's prime.
But again, he's it, and let's count that out by naming the names of all of Dubas' outside acquisitions last summer who've spent at least half of the ongoing season on the NHL roster:
• Erik Karlsson ($10 million average annual value, signed through 2027): This one's complicated, of course, both on and off the ice. I'll stand by my original assessment that this trade was conceived cleverly, and that it's amazing that a player of this pedigree could be acquired for a dump of contracts in the other direction. But I'll also reemphasize, as I wrote on the first day of training camp, that Karlsson would fit here only if he'd be complemented by players who'd go to the net. Otherwise, his primary skill -- elegantly getting pucks into dangerous shooting areas -- would go to waste. Which it has. Dubas didn't add a player who'd fit that mold until Michael Bunting just a couple weeks ago, and Sullivan couldn't convince his existing guys to get there. Karlsson himself hasn't been anywhere near as awful as his most ardent critics insist, as the advanced analytics strongly support, but his offensive production's been halved from his Norris Trophy work a year ago in San Jose, and this has still been an after-the-fact fail on all fronts.
• Reilly Smith ($5 million AAV, signed through 2025): This was, as those on the inside have discussed, in essence, a swap of Jason Zucker for Smith, as one was allowed to leave through free agency and the other signed. Seemed promising at the time, too, with Smith fresh off a championship run with the Golden Knights. But after a solid start alongside Evgeni Malkin, he vanished like a prop in a Las Vegas magician's box. He's got 12 goals, an array of bangs off the glass from being unable to pick corners and not nearly enough sweat staining his sweater. Meanwhile, Zucker's production between the Coyotes and Predators has been about the same at 11 goals, but his bonus fire's been sorely missed.
• Ryan Graves ($4.5 million AAV, signed through ... my God, 2029): I went at this hard in Newark, so I won't pile on beyond reiterating that this has the no-hype possibility of becoming the worst contract in Pittsburgh's hockey history. Twice as bad as Jack Johnson's, both in scale and in dollars with $27 million guaranteed. Catastrophic to date.
• Noel Acciari ($2 million AAV, signed through 2026): Both Dubas and Sullivan rave about him, with Sullivan calling him both "a warrior" and "ultimate warrior" this season. He gives his all, and I'll give him that. But I haven't seen the impact one would want for a three-year commitment to a player already on the wrong side of 30. He's scored four goals, he's nowhere near fast enough to be as physical as he'd like to be and ... this hasn't gone as hoped. At all.
• Matt Nieto ($900,000 AAV, signed through 2025): It wouldn't be fair to go too hard here, since he's been out most of the season with an injury, but he had one goal through 22 games and even less of a tangible impact than Acciari while playing. He, too, is on the wrong side of the 30. Which should underscore, I'd say, the mistake Dubas made in supplementing a core of older players ... with more older players. Never made sense to me. Always wanted to see a bunch of kids flying around on the bottom two lines, certainly on the wings. Heck, if nobody was going to score, might as well get 'em cheap, fast and hungry. This was none of those.
• Jansen Harkins ($850,000 AAV, signed through 2024): A waiver claim from Winnipeg in the middle of camp, he flashed some of that energy that's still needed, but he also had zero goals through 43 games before getting hurt last month, aside from that epic shootout finisher in Montreal. On a team that couldn't finish up front, though, this only compounded that shortcoming. Exempting Eller's 14 goals, the remainder of the forwards most often deployed on the bottom-six -- Harkins, Acciari, Nieto, Jeff Carter -- combined to score all of 14 goals. Can't win that way.
• Alex Nedeljkovic ($1.5 million, signed through 2024): Here's one where I was dead wrong, and I'll happily admit it. He's 10-6-4 with a 2.95 goals-against average and .904 save percentage, numbers very much in line with the starter, Tristan Jarry, who Dubas also signed last summer, to a five-year, $26.9 million extension. But the broader question lingers as to whether or not the Penguins have contender-level talent/consistency at the most important position. These two did fine through four months, but February, when they were most needed, was their worst. Other teams go big on goaltending, and Dubas, following through on his history in Toronto, didn't.
Now, this is to say nothing of an awful lot of FSG cash poured into strengthening the AHL affiliate in Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, with eight outside acquisitions added on NHL contracts who'd produced next to nothing in Pittsburgh: Radim Zohorna (one year, $775,000), Vinnie Hinostroza (one year, $775,000), Joona Koppanen (two years, $1.55 million), Marc Johnstone (two years, $1.55 million) Ryan Shea (one year, $775,000), Will Butcher (one year, $775,000), Andreas Johnsson (one year, $800,000), Magnus Hellberg (one year, $785,000). Aside from one wonderful night in Los Angeles for Hellberg, nothing material came of any of this. Not a single pleasant surprise at the NHL level.
Also of note, I'm not even getting into Bunting, Jesse Puljujarvi or Emil Bemstrom, as none have been around long enough.
That said, the AAV total of the seven outside acquisitions bulleted above is $24.75 million, roughly a third of the organization's entire cap hit. Which is one of about a billion reasons my mind was blown when anyone on the inside claimed Jake Guentzel needed to be cleared out because he couldn't be afforded. Sure he could, if not for all this other accumulated waste.
Dubas is still new. He works hard. He seems to care. I'm not about to bury him. But he's hardly above blame for his role in what we've witnessed these past few months.
This isn't Toronto. More's expected around here.
• A reminder that DK Pittsburgh Sports is out in Nebraska covering Duquesne's historic trip to the NCAA Tournament, and proudly at that. Follow our Dukes Feed for all of Corey Crisan's coverage out in Omaha, including a live file for the game.
• Chuck Tanner days till Miami.
• Thanks for reading.
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