Thursday night, just one day away, all the talking and all the speculation will finally be put to rest. The first round of the 2024 NFL Draft will commence, and the Steelers will add the next player they hope can make a lasting impact on the franchise.
It's obviously a very important decision without a clear and obvious candidate, which is why speculation has run rampant on which direction the Steelers will go.
Fortunately, we are close enough to the draft that we have enough intel that we don't have to grasp at straws. There's an entire body of work throughout the draft process -- work at the Senior Bowl, Combine, college pro days and pre-draft visits -- that provide substantial evidence for the Steelers' preferences, as well as some inside information that has come from the various offseason events.
But, now is the time where all the homework, all the planning and all the strategizing is put to action. Which players are higher or lower on the Steelers' board than what we can find on Pro Football Focus or any other site that heavily covers the draft? Which players are worth a trade up or what has to happen for the Steelers to pull the trigger on trading back? What about other teams' strategies, and how can the Steelers navigate the chaos around them to find the guy they want in the most important round of the draft?
"We have plenty of strategy meetings," Omar Khan told reporters Monday afternoon at the UPMC Rooney Sports Complex. "We've already started between now and Thursday about where the threshold would be, or our comfort level is with certain guys. And you know, there's a million hypotheticals you go through right now and amongst the GMs we all talk amongst each other. So, we kind of have a feel who wants to move up, move down and your kind of prepared."
Before we really dive into any scenarios the Steelers have to navigate Thursday night, I'm going to lay out all of the intel I've learned from various sources over the course of the draft process:
• Tackle is the priority in the first round. Not only did assistant offensive line coach Isaac Williams help coach at the Senior Bowl, offensive line coach Pat Meyer was specifically instructed to scout right tackles during this process. When the team's offensive line coach is told to primarily look at one spot on the line over another, there's no reason to overthink anything.
• Of all the tackles that are within range for the Steelers, I've heard the most about Oregon State's Taliese Fuaga. In fact, I've heard they love him. The only question from there is how much do they love him? Go back and read the aforementioned quote from Khan about their comfort level with certain players. This is what he's talking about. What's their comfort level with trading up? Three spots? Five spots? Eight spots?
• Should tackle not work out in the first round, expect center, receiver or cornerback to be the fallback. The Steelers want a tackle, but they won't go into Thursday night handcuffing themselves to one position. 22 of the Steelers' 30 pre-draft visits were with offensive linemen, receivers or cornerbacks. There's no smokescreen here. They want to address those four positions in this draft, preferably in the first three or four rounds.
• At receiver, that’s most likely the last resort in the first round. Probably only if the tackles they’d want there are gone, and I'd think Duke's Graham Barton and Iowa's Cooper DeJean would have to be gone, too. I’ve heard the Steelers like both LSU's Brian Thomas Jr. and Texas' Adonai Mitchell. Those are probably the two most likely receiver candidates at the 20th pick.
• I’ve heard that some in the building really like Zach Frazier, but he’s obviously not a first-round candidate. Ideally, I think they want tackle in the first round, then find a way to get Frazier in the second. But, we know how unlikely that is. And, it's impossible to predict because all teams reset after the first night of the draft to rethink strategies. There are 32 picks that must happen before anyone gets a clearer handle on what might happen in the second round.
• I've also heard about the Eagles wanting to move up in the draft, but more directly connected to the Steelers. The Eagles have the 22nd pick in the first round, just two spots behind the Steelers. I can't speak for other reports that made the rounds on Tuesday, but I have heard part of the Eagles' rationale is to prevent the Steelers from taking a tackle or cornerback they want.
Now, to go into the Steelers' strategy for Thursday night, based on what we know. Considering how much the Steelers are prioritizing tackle and the class of players in this draft, I'd strongly bet that a trade up is far more likely than a trade down.
Plus, there's this little nugget when Khan said, "I would just say you never trade away. In my opinion you never trade away from a good player. But obviously, if there's ever a scenario that makes sense for both sides, you have to look at it."
I'm wholeheartedly buying more into the first portion of that quote. The board would have to fall in a terrible way for the Steelers, and there would most likely have to be some attractive assets dangled in order for them to move back.
When building the board, Tomlin clarified that they build it for them. That's typical of most teams, which is why Tomlin said, "It's a waste of time to try to figure out how others might address their needs and things of that nature. We mock it for us."
Tomlin also clarified that the board is built with the 20 "best" players on the draft, not the players most likely available for the Steelers. That's also a winning way to do things. It keeps teams from overcommitting to needs rather than just getting the consensus best player.
When looking at trade-up scenarios, it makes the most sense that the Steelers could look into the 15-17 range, which would mean trading up anywhere between three to five spots. The first six picks of the draft will most likely comprise of four quarterbacks and two receivers or three of each. Notre Dame's Joe Alt could be the first tackle off the board at seventh overall to the Titans.
After that, the run of tackles can go a multitude of ways. Arguments could be made for several teams to prioritize tackle ahead of that sweet spot, including the Bears (9th overall), Jets (10th), Vikings (11th), Raiders (13th) and Saints (14th). While the Colts (15th), Seahawks (16th) and Jaguars (17th) could consider a tackle, the Steelers may need to trade ahead of the Bengals at 18th overall if they are dead set on a tackle.
The tackles that are most likely worthy of a trade up include Alt, Fuaga, Penn State's Olumuyiwa Fashanu, Washington's Troy Fautanu and Alabama's JC Latham. While all the aforementioned teams could realistically draft one of these guys, the good news is there are at least three cornerbacks, three edge defenders and freakish tight end Brock Bowers that could help some of those tackles stay on the board longer.
To paint one of a multitude of potential scenarios, the Colts at 15th overall are a trade down candidate. Receiver and defensive back are perhaps their two biggest needs, and the top tier of receivers will be off the board long before they're on the clock. They could trade back to acquire some extra draft capital and take Thomas, Mitchell or a cornerback such as DeJean or Clemson's Nate Wiggins. Trading up five spots could give the Steelers a real shot at landing one of these five tackles.
To go back to what Khan said, these scenarios all depend on the comfort level they have in parting with valuable assets to get a guy they really love, whether that's a tackle or any position. Last year, the Steelers were obviously more than comfortable with giving away the 120th pick in the draft to move up three spots and get Broderick Jones. That was the threshold for them for that particular player. There will be ranging levels of comfort for each player on their board. There's no cookie cutter approach to trading up in the draft. It has to be for the right player at the right price.
One big mystery that remains ahead of Thursday night is what the threshold is for Fuaga, Fautanu or Latham. Or, this is conjecture on my part, but maybe they're really high on a player such as Amarius Mims and feel like a team such as the Eagles would swoop in front of them to snatch him up. This is the mystery element that will remain, no matter how much digging is done by those of us in the media.
These are just a few of the many scenarios Khan, Tomlin, Andy Weidl and the entire staff on South Water Street are working out over these days leading up to the draft. It'll be very interesting to see how all of this plays out -- to see things like how much they really love tackle in the first round, or perhaps see how much they believe in the Day 2 or early Day 3 prospects to fill that void.
No matter how it all plays out, there's no question that Khan and the Steelers will have turned over every stone in an effort to get the guy they want Thursday night.
