The Steelers have addressed several needs on their roster during this offseason, including a complete overhaul of the quarterback room. But, with perhaps the toughest schedule in the NFL, could the Steelers be on a collision course for their first losing season in two decades?
Just seven weeks away from training camp, ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) has projections for the 2024 season. As explained by ESPN, the FPI projects the draft order by simulating the season 10,000 times. Game probabilities are based largely on the model's ratings for individual teams in addition to game locations. The order is based on the records the model believes the teams will have after 17 games and each team's average draft position in the simulations.
According to ESPN's FPI, the Steelers are projected to have the 13th pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. Picking that high in the first round would most likely require a losing record. This past draft, the Raiders selected 13th after finishing the 2023 season with an 8-9 record.
In addition to the projection, ESPN's FPI also gives the Steelers a 30.9% chance of earning a top-10 pick. Outside of trading up to 10th overall for Devin Bush in the 2019 draft, the Steelers haven't picked in the top 10 since selecting Plaxico Burress eighth overall in 2000. The last time the Steelers had a losing record was when they went 6-10 in 2003, giving them the 11th overall pick in the 2004 draft. The Steelers were fortunate to get a future Hall of Fame quarterback with that pick by selecting Ben Roethlisberger.
While most would probably agree that the Steelers' roster is just as good, if not better than what it was a season ago, the Steelers' schedule surely plays into a potentially tough outcome in 2024. The Steelers' final eight games not only include all six AFC North matchups, but also a trip to Philadelphia, where the Steelers never play well, a home matchup against the Super Bowl champion Chiefs on Christmas Day, just four days after playing the Ravens in Baltimore. And, when the Steelers play the Ravens earlier in the season, they have to turn around and travel to Cleveland four days later for Thursday Night Football.
Vegas doesn't necessarily think too highly of the Steelers' chances in 2024, either. FanDuel, Draft Kings and BetRiver NJ all have the Steelers' odds at 8.5 wins while BetMGM has it at 7.5 wins.
The Steelers are confident in their chances, despite having a lot of obstacles in their way. The offense has been overhauled quite a bit. Gone are Kenny Pickett, Mason Rudolph and Mitch Trubisky, all in favor of Russell Wilson, Justin Fields and Kyle Allen. Matt Canada was also shown the door in the middle of last season, and Mike Tomlin opted for an experienced coordinator when he hired Arthur Smith in January to take over the offense. Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren should benefit from Smith's run-heavy system, as should Pat Freiermuth given Smith's usage of tight ends in previous offenses, and the Steelers also reinforced the offensive line by using three of their first five draft picks on tackle Troy Fautanu, center Zach Frazier and guard Mason McCormick, respectively.
But, if the offense takes too long to mesh during the lighter first half of the schedule, the Steelers might be in too big of a hole to overcome by the time their final eight games come around.
Then again, if there's any coach that's proven time and again that he can avoid losing seasons and stay in the playoff picture to the end of the season, it's Tomlin. But, 2024 might be his toughest season to date.
