Not since Cam Bonifay in 1997 has anyone even peripherally associated with the Pittsburgh Baseball Club spoken the phrase "five-year plan." Which hasn't prevented it, in the slightest, from becoming a permanent part of our civil discourse.
You know, 'Not another five-year plan.'
Or, 'There they go with a five-year plan again.'
No one says it. No one, to my knowledge, has it cross their mind. It's a relic that gets regurgitated by some longstanding fans and by no one else.
So, with that as a framework, I'll share this: The prevailing thinking within 115 Federal Street -- and I'm told this was the case well before this summer, never mind the catastrophic homestand that was just completed -- has been and remains that the 2025-27 seasons are seen as pivotal opportunities in which ... not just to compete but to contend.
A half-dozen reasons for this:
• And this is a bona fide No. 1 with a bullet: Paul Skenes' arrival, which has been bigger than anyone could've expected, coupled with Mitch Keller's continuing All-Star form and Jared Jones' dynamite debut to stage a setting in which the team would only need a playoff berth to be seen as dangerous. With Skenes and Jones under team control for another five seasons -- and any possible trade scenarios for either being almost that far out, if one or both can't be signed -- that segues sweetly with the five-year, $77 million extension Keller signed this spring.
• To buttress that bullet, there's pride expressed inside those walls that Skenes and Jones were promoted from the minors well before there'd be any term/monetary benefit to the team, and that's fair to stress, I'd say, given that very few teams forgo those things. The reason, I'm told, was to get both the full amount of experience in 2024, to better be ready for what's beyond.
• Bryan Reynolds, signed last spring to an eight-year, $106.75 million extension, won't turn 30 until next April. So there's every reason to believe his own All-Star form will swim right alongside Keller's career peak. Similarly, every other position player of note on the active or 40-man rosters will be under team control for a minimum four years. That pack's headlined by Oneil Cruz, but it also includes Nick Gonzales, Joey Bart, Henry Davis, Endy Rodriguez, top hitting prospect Termarr Johnson and, for better or worse, Ke'Bryan Hayes. That's not nearly enough, needless to say, but such vacancies are far easier to fill than front-line starting pitchers, and that's even more true of relievers.
• Even Hayes works into this, as miserable as he's been at the plate this season. Because his eight-year, $70 million extension signed in 2022 was willfully front-loaded -- he got $10 million that first season, then gets $7 million in 2024-27, then $8 million in 2028-29. At the time, Bob Nutting acknowledged publicly that the front-loading was "intentional" so that "we have some flexibility in those middle years to be able to supplement around him ... to be able to put us in a position to build a truly championship-caliber team.” I'm hardly suggesting Hayes is some steal, given his current production, but the contract's not the all-out albatross it might appear to be.
• While I'm only giving glancing mentions to prospects such as Johnson, there's an internal belief that the Pirates are on the precipice of having a few more legit youngsters in the mix. Which can help both on the field and in having trade pieces to send out. If, for instance, Bubba Chandler, Braxton Aschraft or Thomas Harrington compete for rotation spots in the near future, as almost everyone expects, they'd help in one way or the other.
• It's inconceivable that payroll won't top $100 million, a plateau it hasn't reached since 2016. (That's both outrageous and indefensible, I'll add here, given the revenue sharing and other national monies the Pirates receive every year.) The current payroll's at $87 million, local revenues are up because of an additional 2,706 fans attending an average game at PNC Park, and it wouldn't take much to touch nine figures. Nutting's forever policy on the team's finances, as I've reported for more than a decade, has been to not spend money that isn't already in hand. So any increase in payroll has to follow an increase in revenue. (I know, I know.)
Now, does any of this amount to certainty?
Wow, of course not.
Bearing in mind that Ben Cherington's been abysmal at acquiring offensive talent through any means, and that Derek Shelton might've just had the worst week of any manager in baseball history, and that Andy Haines hasn't exactly helped any cause, and that -- to single out one of countless deficiencies in the system -- the Latin American pipeline's virtually nonexistent and looks set to stay that way for years to come ... it'll take a lot more than circling years on the calendar to succeed.
But this is the thought process.
MORE PIRATES
• Make no mistake: All of what's above was a colossal factor in Cherington's passive approach to 2024 all summer long. He's never believed in this season being relevant toward any purpose beyond a steppingstone. Someone else might've openly called it "a bridge year."
• It's still not known how many years Shelton's 2023 extension covers, but his original contract that began with the 2020 season was for four. (There remains zero cause to keep that information from the fans, I'll parenthetically add here. It's a rarity in professional sports.) But all one has to know about how tight Cherington and Shelton are is that Cherington seized up the Pirates' hot start last season and signed Shelton to that extension while the team was 14-7, this from a GM who's hardly motivated to move on anything in-season. And they are tight, too.
• Skenes is at 86 innings in the majors, 27 1/3 in the minors, so 113 1/3 total. The Pirates have 48 games left, which would, if he were a veteran, set him up for another eight or nine starts. That won't happen. There's no hard number for a Skenes shutdown, but I'm told that that the reason for that is that no one can anticipate how important these remaining games might be. Or if there'll be playoffs. If these games will be as inconsequential as it's appearing they'll now be, that affords management the luxury of smoothing out Skenes' final few starts while also building up his inning log toward 2025. If somehow the Pirates leap back into this, he'll have his regular-season starts more spaced out.
• More evidence, as if it's needed, that Cherington saw 2024 the way he did: When spring training started, he stated that right field would be decided between Edward Olivares (just designated for assignment), Billy McKinney (Indianapolis all season), and Josh Palacios. I love Palacios as a dude, and it's always fun to see a late-bloomer do well, but that's not an exec taking a season seriously.
• Speaking of right field, let's just say the acquisition of Bryan De La Cruz wasn't met with much excitement within the team's orbit. And that was before he got off to his 4-for-27, 10-strikeout start. And, for fair context, it was the polar opposite of how the Isiah Kiner-Falefa acquisition was universally applauded.
STEELERS
• Whatever comes of the Brandon Aiyuk pursuit, know this: He won't make a penny more in Pittsburgh than T.J. Watt does.
That harkens to an old Dan Rooney unwritten rule that the team's best player should be, in every event possible, the team's highest-paid player, as well. And with all due respect to Aiyuk being who he is, he's not T.J. He's not anybody's OPOY to T.J.'s DPOY. And I'm told that'll matter if/when the time comes to talk money with Aiyuk.
So, depending on whether one applies T.J.'s average annual salary of $28,002,750 or his cap hit of $30,418,694, that'll be the artificial ceiling that's applied.
Which, I mean, ought to suffice, right?
• I was told yesterday by a Los Angeles source that the Chargers will be spending a full week in Pittsburgh next month. They play Sept. 15 in Charlotte, N.C., against the Panthers and, rather than flying all the way back to the West Coast, they'll instead come up here for all their practices in advance of their Sept. 22 game against the Steelers that'll represent their home opener at Acrisure Stadium. Surprised more NFL teams don't do this.
• Omar Khan wants Aiyuk. Neither Khan nor Mike Tomlin wants to move a roster player in the process, not with all else that'll likely be sacrificed along the way. That's the entirety of the ongoing scenario.
• Still nothing new on the contract fronts for Cam Heyward or Pat Freiermuth.
• Hey, there's actual freaking football tonight! OK, kinda. With no Russell Wilson and only a series or two of Justin Fields, per Mike Tomlin, there'll be no more than a glance at the new Arthur Smith offense. And with no T.J., no Cam, no Minkah Fitzpatrick ... yeah. But I'll repeat from the previous Insider, since the issue seemed to arise anew this week: There's no quarterback competition, no suspense, no room for variance based on a couple exhibitions. Barring injury, it's Wilson's job. That's coming right from the team. If Fields keeps making progress, as he's palpably done in Latrobe, then he'll be that much closer to starting. But it won't happen in Atlanta or for the foreseeable future.
• The defense is behind the offense. It's been both visible and audible this week in Latrobe, and when I say audible, I'm referring to defensive players expressing their displeasure to me. They've been unhappy, in particular, in getting gashed by the run. Something important to watch tonight, as much as the personnel are applicable.
• Smith loves Dan Moore. Been sharing that with you for weeks, and it's now playing out. He's still at left tackle, he'll be at left tackle tonight, and Broderick Jones will still be at right. This coordinator's going to prioritize the run over all else, and one thing Moore can do is run-block. Not to suggest that Troy Fautanu can't, but a rookie's a rookie.
• Same goes for Nate Herbig over Zach Frazier at center, at least in the short term.
• The coaching staff's focus when it comes to positional priority, in general, can be condensed to the following list:
1. Beat the Falcons.
2. See No. 1.
3. Worry about the rest later.
PENGUINS
• It's early August, and nothing's happening anywhere in the NHL, but I'd be remiss if I didn't re-express what a spectacular waste of time it'd be for anyone anywhere to fret over Sidney Crosby's future in Pittsburgh. He'll sign, it'll be for three years, and he'll keep becoming that much closer with Kyle Dubas toward the shared goal of bolstering the roster around him.
Also and relevant, as Taylor Haase explains as only she can, here's the 35-plus template for contracts in the league, which might but also might not affect Sid's terms.
• One small thing I've heard that could become significant over the season: Mike Sullivan's planning on offering more autonomy than the norm to David Quinn in joining the staff. Sullivan's always had huge respect for Quinn, who'll be responsible for both the power play and individual instruction of defensemen. Including Ryan Graves. Big job, eh?
• Thanks for reading our franchise feature. I'll be at Acrisure Stadium tonight, beginning my 24th season of covering NFL games in that place.
• And for listening:
