Hitting pause on second-half decline crucial for Keller

It's quite evident that since the second half of the season began, Mitch Keller has had spurts where he's looked less like his reliable self. Instead of consistently resembling the guy who won 10 games with a 3.46 ERA through 19 starts and was snubbed of an All-Star selection, Keller took a step back over his previous eight outings entering Saturday, boasting a 1-4 record with a 4.98 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. 

Sure, the former is inflated by two outings in which he allowed seven runs or more in August and the latter swelled due to more than a few starts in which he was hit hard and allowed multiple free passes, but Keller has ultimately lacked consistency post-All-Star break. His second-half decline featured a 43 1/3-inning stretch in which he allowed 25 runs (24 earned) and surrendered eight home runs. To put that number of long balls allowed into perspective, he gave up a total of 12 home runs over 114 1/3 innings during the first half of the season. While he's had some better outings, including two quality starts to begin the second half and a scoreless performance in Texas on Aug. 20, they've been few and far between. 

That was, however, before he hit the pause button on this particular night and briefly turned things around through six innings in the finale of Saturday night's doubleheader, an 8-6 Pirates loss at the hands of the Nationals at PNC Park. Keller, who attributed his poorer outings to a lack of execution and leaving pitches in the middle of the plate, was more productive in that regard, as he allowed two earned runs on seven hits and struck out eight while throwing 61 of his 91 pitches for strikes. 

"I think the Texas start was a good start. This was a good start," Derek Shelton said following a doubleheader sweep that also included a 5-3 loss in Game 1. "He's had a couple in between where it looked like he wasn't in his legs as much. Today, he was in his legs better, and that's why the velo came back up. I thought he was really good. I thought he was the Mitch Keller that we saw in Texas and in the first half of the season. He attacked."

Keller admittedly made some mechanical adjustments, too. He didn't go into specifics, but the mid-week adjustments evidently allowed him to feel more like himself. 

"Yeah, felt really good," Keller said. "Definitely an outing to take forward the rest of the year and build on that one for sure."

With only a handful of starts remaining in the month of September, a strong finish would be huge for Keller, who has pitched like an ace at times, while also struggling to maintain the consistency of one. It was just a year ago when Keller went through the same thing he's currently going through, as he put together an All-Star first half before fading down the stretch with a 5.59 ERA and 1.44 WHIP over his final 13 starts. 

When talking about those late-season struggles back in spring training, Keller said he didn't think he'd be quite as good or mentally tough as he is now if he didn't go through those rough times. He anticipated going through some tough times again this season, as every pitcher inevitably does, but even when he's not at his best, he's developed the mental fortitude to quickly move on to the next pitch, next batter and next game.

Sure, as this season dwindles down to the final few weeks, he'd like to shrink that 3.85 season ERA and inch closer to the career-high 210 strikeouts he finished with a year ago. But bouncing back further and taking some momentum into the offseason might be the two most important things for him, especially following an August slate in which he was constantly getting shelled during shorter outings. 

"I'm looking at every start as the same, but just obviously coming out there and having a big game was nice," Keller said. "I'm expecting to do that every time, so when I don't, it sucks."

While there are plenty of reasons for fans to view the Pirates' future with skepticism, the state of the starting rotation isn't one of them. We saw glimpses of that during this doubleheader in which Luis Ortiz was serviceable in allowing four runs (three earned) over five-plus innings in Game 1 before Keller did his thing to give the Pirates a chance to potentially earn a split in Game 2. 

Both Ortiz and Keller have been instrumental in the rotation's success this season -- Ortiz obviously in a shorter sample -- and they won't be alone in helping guide the group moving forward. There are plenty of young arms that could soon be vying to join the likes of Keller, Paul Skenes and Jared Jones in unleashing their talents over the next handful of years. And it can't be understated just how important Keller, who signed a five-year, $77 million contract extension during spring training, is to the future of the rotation. 

Skenes and Jones are the headliners for a young core of pitchers the Pirates have at the big-league level and within their farm system, but the purpose Keller serves as a reliable and experienced young starter is just as, if not more, significant to the team's success. The Pirates invested in him for a reason and they need him to help lead the staff for years to come. In order to do that effectively, he must ensure that stretches like the one he's gone through over the last month become less of the norm moving forward. 

"It's extremely important. I think, as we've talked about, he's the leader of the staff," Shelton said. "You're gonna have some challenging starts and he's had a couple over the last two. But to be able to bounce back and make an adjustment, that's really important for him. That's really important for the young guys to see that also."