The 2024 season ultimately ended in disappointment for the Pirates. A year after compiling 14 more wins than they did in 2022, a significant amount of improvement was expected. It was supposed to be a year in which the bullpen was expected to serve as a strength, the offense was expected to be better and the starting rotation was going to get a boost once Paul Skenes arrived on the scene.
Things didn't work out that way, though. The bullpen produced less-than-ideal results throughout the year, the offense was beyond inconsistent and featured way too many individual disappointments and the rotation was a lot better than it was expected to be, and that's not just because Skenes pitched more like a Cy Young candidate than a Rookie of the Year favorite in his first professional season.
By the end of the year, the Pirates matched their 2023 output with an identical 76-86 record. Zero win improvement and a last-place finish in the National League Central Division. To add on to it, another year under Ben Cherington and Derek Shelton without a winning season and a playoff appearance.
As I alluded to before, there were individual disappointments as well as individual surprises this season. Among the former were guys who were expected to accomplish more in 2024. Their struggles undoubtedly coincided with the team's overall woes. Then, there was the latter, a group of players who ultimately exceeded expectations while providing at least a glimpse of hope and optimism during an overall miserable season.
With the 2024 season now in the rear-view mirror, here's a look at three of the year's biggest surprises and three of the team's biggest disappointments:
SURPRISES
LUIS ORTIZ
Ortiz was perhaps one of the Pirates' most consistent performers, regardless of his role. Whether he was tasked with serving as a bulk reliever or a starter, Ortiz went out with a focus on simply doing his job. And he did it quite well.
Ortiz experienced some struggles with a 4.78 ERA and a 1.70 WHIP through 18 appearances and 15 starts in his first significant taste of the big leagues in 2023. What was most alarming, however, was the 4.98 BB/9 rate -- 48 free passes in 86 2/3 innings -- he posted to accompany his 6.13 K/9 rate. Rather than experience a sophomore slump in making an opening day roster for the first time in his career, Ortiz was more than serviceable out of the bullpen, finishing with a 3.49 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP in 22 relief appearances. He struck out 40 batters and walked 18 in 49 innings as a reliever.
Ortiz was thrust back into the starting rotation at the end of June and never truly looked back. With each passing start, there were questions regarding what his role would be moving forward. All Ortiz did was put his head down and prove he belonged in the conversation for a starting role. He made 15 starts down the stretch and thrived with another opportunity, posting a 3.22 ERA along with a 1.00 WHIP. He limited opposing hitters to a minuscule .201 batting average and struck out 67 batters while walking 24 in 86 2/3 innings as a starter.
While there were some doubts regarding what Ortiz's season might look like, I think it's fair to say he exceeded expectations. He battled for a spot in the starting rotation during spring training and ultimately fell short. He never wavered, though. He embraced every chance he had to step foot on a major-league mound and established himself as a reliable starting option for this team moving forward.
"He’s continued to progress. Some young pitchers would be mad they didn’t make the rotation," Shelton told reporters following Ortiz's final start of the season on Sept. 25. "He continued to get better throughout the year ... We have a major-league starter, which has really been fun to watch."
NICK GONZALES
I'm not sure if there were truly that many people who expected Gonzales, a former first-round pick, to turn things around like he did this season. We're talking about a guy who hit .209 with a .616 OPS and a 28.1% strikeout rate in his first 35 major-league games in 2023.
He went into the offseason with a plan to make adjustments with his swing and followed through with it. While he didn't make the team out of spring training, he made a significant impact with Class AAA Indianapolis to open the 2024 season before earning a May promotion and showing that he's capable of hitting at the big-league level.
“I think he’s a great example (of developing and sticking to an offseason plan) and I think the biggest portion of Nick in this case is willingness to make adjustments and willingness to ask questions. It’s really important," Shelton said when I asked him about this particular subject during the team's trip to St. Louis in mid-September. "If you’re a major-league player and the major-league game will give you feedback, you have to take that feedback and be able to say, 'alright, I need to be better at this.’ I think Nick is a great example of it that when we gave him that feedback, he was like, ‘alright,’ and the next question was, 'how do I get better at it?' Then you have the ways forward. The openness is the most important thing.”
Gonzales' final numbers in a larger sample size this season: 94 games, .270 average (97 hits in 359 at-bats), seven home runs, 49 RBIs, 42 runs scored and a .709 OPS. He also finished with an improved 19.1% strikeout rate. Gonzales was red-hot in the month of May (hit .319 in 19 games), cooled down a bit more in the months of June and July (.253 in 25 games and .214 over 21 games) and provided a significant boost to the lineup in late August and September (.368 through four games and .283 in the final 25 games) when he returned from a one-month stint on the injured list due to a groin injury.
Gonzales quickly established himself as the No. 1 option over at second base following his promotion. He also, especially in the final games of the regular season, showed he's capable of providing some flexibility over at shortstop. Time will tell whether he continues on as the Pirates' starting second baseman in 2025, but Gonzales certainly helped his cause with a strong showing this season.
BAILEY FALTER
Falter faded down the stretch this season, as he posted a 5.02 ERA and saw opposing hitters bat .290 against him in 11 starts following the All-Star break. He struggled mightily in the month of June, landed on the injured list with left triceps tendinitis prior to the break and didn't return until late July, but I think his overall performance is worthy of landing on the side of the list noting pleasant surprises.
There weren't many people thrilled with the fact that Falter made the starting rotation out of spring training. Many were confused and appalled by the decision. Those reactions seemed warranted after his first start of the year in Miami, but Falter silenced plenty of critics -- including myself -- with the consistency he provided during the first two months when he produced a 3-2 record with a 2.54 ERA and a .190 batting average against over his next 10 starts. That span included six quality starts and three scoreless performances. In 60 1/3 innings, Falter struck out 36 batters and walked 13.
Considering many believed Falter was more suited for a long relief role coming out of spring training, I'd say the 8-9 record, the 4.43 ERA and 1.29 WHIP he produced over the course of 28 starts was respectable. He provided solid results as a key left-handed piece of the starting rotation and served as a more than pleasant surprise in 2024. Because of that, I think he's certainly earned the right to at least be in the conversation for a spot in the rotation heading into 2025.
DISAPPOINTMENTS
HENRY DAVIS
Davis acknowledged to me in Cincinnati two weeks ago that he didn't have the big-league success he would have liked to this season. The numbers paint a rough picture for Davis as a major-league hitter. In just over 100 at-bats through 37 games, he hit .144 with a .454 OPS and one home run. He also struck out at a 36.9% rate. Davis was sent down to Class AAA Indianapolis to make offensive adjustments and spent two separate stints on the injured list, including one due to left hand inflammation that ultimately ended his season.
Last offseason, Davis worked hard to prove his worth as a catcher, knowing that Endy Rodriguez would be out for the year following elbow surgery. The former first overall pick showed value during spring training and earned a spot on the opening day roster, but he failed to meet the high expectations surrounding him during the regular season.
Davis' future certainly looks cloudy. To me, Joey Bart should undoubtedly enter spring training as the clear-cut favorite to land the starting catcher's job. Rodriguez should be back in the mix, too. Davis isn't going to be guaranteed a single thing, especially since he has yet to demonstrate he can hold his own at the big-league level. Time will tell whether he eventually figures things out and, like Bart, proves to be a late bloomer. But his 2024 season was certainly a disappointment.
KE'BRYAN HAYES
Lingering back issues played a significant role in Hayes' struggles this past season. It's ultimately what ended his year and now has him heading into the offseason with an emphasis placed on recovering through a new conditioning program he described as being "more intense."
"It’s very, very disappointing for me because I love playing baseball," Hayes said two weeks ago in Cincinnati. "This is what I’ve done my whole life. Just kind of what I’ve been going through the last couple years kind of has been tough, I’m not going to lie. But, I know I’m going to be able to get on the other side of this. Just feel going forward, kind of the plan that we have that I’ll be good whenever we get back next year.”
Upon the conclusion of spring training, I viewed Hayes as being the most important player to the Pirates' success. If he had a full year that resembled the second half of 2023 in which he hit .299 with an .874 OPS, 10 home runs and 29 RBIs through 49 games, then his contributions would likely go a long way in helping the team win ball games. That didn't happen. Instead, he was limited to just 96 games -- the least amount he's played since 2021. When on the field, he struggled mightily in posting career-low numbers, including a .233 batting average, .573 OPS, four home runs, 25 RBIs and 13 extra-base hits in 365 at-bats.
Hayes mentioned in Cincinnati that he didn't play through his back issues all year. There were days where he felt good and others where he was bothered by it. Clearly things weren't right, though.
“We really believe that we have way more information now than we did four months ago," Cherington said during a press conference at PNC Park Wednesday. "It’s way more clear. I believe he’s more clear. I believe the work that he’s been doing these last two months has really helped him gain confidence in that work and what that’s going to lead to. In my conversation with him at the end of the season, he seemed excited about the offseason, excited about next year. Probably with some level of anxiety because until he’s out there doing it, you’re always going to have some of that. But, he’s obviously really important. We need him on the field. Period. We need him on the field, doing the things he’s capable of doing in order for us to be the team that we want to be next year. He knows that, he feels that and feels some form of responsibility for that. We gotta keep working to help him be that.”
DAVID BEDNAR
Bednar's inclusion on this list stems from the struggles he endured at the beginning and end of 2024.
After making just two appearances during spring training due to injury, Bednar blew three saves within his first 12 appearances of the regular season. He eventually figured things out from May to July, collecting 14 saves and limiting opposing hitters to a .198 batting average over 27 appearances. He struggled again, though, over his last 23 appearances from Aug. 3 to Sept. 28. Bednar blew four saves over that span, including two key opportunities against the Padres in early August, and eventually was removed from the closer's role. Over the final 21 1/3 innings he pitched, Bednar allowed 17 earned runs with 22 strikeouts and 18 walks. Opposing hitters were batting .256 with an .805 OPS against him.
All of this came a year after Bednar tied for the National League lead with a career-high 39 saves. He finished 2024 with 23 saves and a career-high seven blown opportunities. Not exactly what you want to see from an All-Star closer.
Despite the overall disappointing year Bednar experienced, Cherington said Wednesday he believes he could return to his full-time closer's role in 2025. He said it's certainly possible that injuries, including the left oblique strain that landed him on the injured list in mid-June, could have played a role in Bednar's struggles. There likely wasn't one singular reason behind his poor performances, though. A consistent lack of execution ultimately played a role as well.
“I think that, with relief pitchers especially, things can snowball. One thing can lead to another. I certainly felt like that’s what happened with David," Cherington said. "We’re still seeing, as I’ve talked about before, the pitch qualities are there. He knows they’re there, which probably helps him feel good. It also probably frustrates him, given that he knows they’re there and he couldn’t solve this. It’s a tiny sample, and that’s really dangerous. I did feel like the last few outings of September were pretty encouraging from our perspective. He’s got some ideas on how to get after his offseason in a way that sets him up even better. But from the person, the brain that’s inside that head and the talent, the arm and the pitch qualities, absolutely, I think he can be pitching at the end of the game.”
