The Steelers are coming off their first loss of the season, and now have a marquee matchup. The Cowboys are coming to town to reignite one of the NFL's most storied rivalries, but it's also an opportunity for Pittsburgh to get back on the right track.
Here's a snapshot of what Dallas brings into Week 5:
DALLAS COWBOYS
Record: 2-2
Standing: Second, NFC East
Last result: Won over Giants, 20-15
THE TREND
I believe it's appropriate to do more than just acknowledge the spectacle that is Steelers vs. Cowboys. As somebody who's lived in both markets, I can tell you there are still a vast number of fans on both sides that hold this rivalry in its own class, even though they only play each other once every four years now.
Whether it's the three Super Bowl clashes, the most of any teams in NFL history, or any old regular-season meeting, it's always an interesting game. Though neither organization hasn't seen much playoff success in recent years, with the Cowboys' postseason woes having lasted much longer than the Steelers', it doesn't prevent this game from being hyped up. Tonight will be no different. The history here is too great:
A deep dive into the history of our rivalry with the Cowboys.
— Pittsburgh Steelers (@steelers) October 4, 2024
📺: #DALvsPIT 10/6 at 8:20 PM ET on NBC pic.twitter.com/DqWKTZP2lE
As far as this year's Cowboys team, it's been rather rocky out of the gate. They opened with a 33-17 beating of the Browns in Cleveland, but then came home and were thrashed by the Saints, 44-19. Despite Dak Prescott's efforts, the Cowboys couldn't overcome a 22-point deficit in the fourth quarter against the Ravens, losing 28-25 in Week 3. Dallas bounced back last week with a win in their first NFC East matchup, beating the Giants, 20-15.
On offense, the Cowboys might have been the most one-dimensional through the first four weeks of the season. Part of that could be because they fell behind by a lot of points in two of their four games. But, their issues running the football have been documented before the season began. Defensively, this is a team that should be pretty well-rounded, but they are dealing with several injuries to significant players. They are vulnerable on that side of the ball.
THE QUARTERBACK
Prescott needs little introduction. He's one of the game's premier quarterbacks, and is coming off his best season in which he was runner up to Lamar Jackson for the NFL's Most Valuable Player award. In 2023, he completed 64.4% of his passes for 4,516 yards, a league-leading 36 touchdowns and only nine interceptions.
This season, Prescott has had to shoulder a heavy load for the Cowboys. Dallas doesn't have a good running game (more on that soon enough), so he's been forced to throw the ball a ton, more than any other quarterback except Geno Smith heading into Week 5 action. It's understandable why they rely on Prescott so much. Not only because they paid him a ton of money, but also because he's capable of making any throw:
Dak Prescott had a completion percentage over expected (CPOE) of +21.2% on passes thrown in under 2.5 seconds.
— Joseph Hoyt (@JoeJHoyt) September 27, 2024
He was 13-14 on those for 143 yards and 2 TDs.
Long story short: Dak Prescott was throwing darts last night. pic.twitter.com/FSgSPP9Kuc
However, the advanced metrics are pretty pedestrian for Prescott this season. Heading into Week 5, Prescott ranked 17th in EPA per play, four spots behind Justin Fields, and his 45% success rate ranks 19th. However, he's averaging 8.2 air yards per pass, which ranks in the top 10 in the league. He's not afraid to stretch the field and throw the ball downfield.
At the end of the day, Prescott is one of the better quarterbacks the Steelers will see all season. He will be treated as such when the players take the field.
THE OFFENSE
As previously stated, the Cowboys' offense has been forced into being one-dimensional far too often. That can be disastrous, and it's no surprise that Dallas ranks 29th in time of possession because of it.
When it comes to running the ball, the Cowboys are going with a timeshare at running back between Rico Dowdle and Ezekiel Elliott. And due to falling behind by so much in a couple games, it's easy to see why the Cowboys rank 31st in rush attempts and dead last in rushing yards per game. However, their rush EPA ranks a respectable 13th in the NFL. And, it is a team coached by Mike McCarthy, so still expect this team to try and run the ball to a certain extent.
But, the true threat on offense is attacking through the air. Prescott has an elite go-to receiver in CeeDee Lamb, who currently ranks 10th in receiving yards. The Cowboys' No. 2 weapon is Brandin Cooks, but he's out this week with an injury. Jake Ferguson isn't a big name, but he's still a guy to watch at tight end. Regardless of the other weapons, or lack thereof, in the passing game, the Prescott-to-Lamb connection is something that defenses have to overly prepare for. It can pop off in an instant:
Une autre connexion entre Dak Prescott et CeeDee Lamb, cette fois-ci bon pour un touché de 55 verges! 🔥
— RDS (@RDSca) September 27, 2024
📺 : RDS2 pic.twitter.com/XVEdSh5xRA
Up front, the Cowboys are pretty good on the interior with Cooper Beebe at center, then Tyler Smith and Zack Martin at guard. Their tackle situation is a bit more tricky with rookie Tyler Guyton at left tackle and Terence Steele on the right side. Steele is pretty solid, but Guyton has struggled. He's been called for seven penalties, the second-most among tackles this season, according to Pro Football Focus.
As such, I'm highlighting a matchup between Guyton and Nick Herbig. The Steelers would love to get to the quarterback with a four-man rush, so if Herbig can have a good day against Guyton, that could absolutely help the cause.
THE DEFENSE
Typically, this is a defense that can do quite a bit to shut down opposing offenses. However, they have been absolutely decimated by injuries.
Micah Parsons is the star of Dallas' defense, the type that will annually be in the discussion for Defensive Player of the Year. But he's out this week with an ankle injury. So is DeMarcus Lawrence, who landed on injured reserve this week. That's the equivalent of the Steelers losing T.J. Watt and Cam Heyward, in terms of impact. Parsons is a special player with special game speed:
Micah Parsons is racking up the sacks already 🔥
— NFL (@NFL) September 11, 2023
📺: #DALvsNYG on NBC
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/DITLbvj034 pic.twitter.com/xoF51cRcJd
Mazi Smith and Osa Odighizuwa are the starters up front on the interior, with Chauncey Golston and Marshawn Kneeland taking the place of Parsons and Lawrence on the edges. That's not exactly a front that's going to strike fear in opponents. And though linebackers Eric Kendricks and DeMarvion Overshown are playing pretty well this year, the Cowboys are struggling badly against the run. They rank 26th in rushing yards allowed per game and rush success rate against, and they rank dead last in rush EPA. And, rookie linebacker Marista Liufau is banged up and might not play, either.
The injuries don't stop up front. The Cowboys have been without All-Pro cornerback DaRon Bland all season, who led the NFL with nine interceptions a season ago, five of which were remarkably returned for touchdowns. He won't return this week. Cornerback Trevon Diggs is also banged up and is questionable for tonight. Donovan Wilson and Malik Hooker are a solid duo at safety, but they're no reason to avoid the middle of the field. The Cowboys enter with the 19th-ranked pass defense, rank 17th in dropback EPA and rank third in dropback success rate. Even with the injuries, they are better equipped to stop the pass.
Thus, I'd expect the Cowboys to load the box against the Steelers, just as they did against the Giants last week. The Cowboys know the Steelers will try to run the ball and need the added firepower to try to thwart Pittsburgh's attempt to establish the run. Dallas is one of the heaviest zone-heavy coverage teams, primarily using Cover 3 and Cover 6. Both coverages leave only three guys deep, so it's not a far cry from their overall scheme to put eight players closer to the line of scrimmage.
THE SPECIAL TEAMS
Brandon Aubrey is the Cowboys' placekicker, and this dude's got a leg. He's already made a 65-yarder this season, the second-longest in NFL history (Justin Tucker - 66 yards). This guy was first team All-Pro as a rookie last season, and he's made 48 of 51 career field goal attempts. Bryan Anger handles the punting duties, and he's made second team All-Pro twice in his career, including last season with Dallas. So, the Cowboys' specialists are pretty good. KaVontae Turpin has been returning kicks and punts, and he's already returned one for a touchdown this season.
THE INJURY REPORT
• Micah Parsons, LB (ankle) -- Parsons suffered an ankle injury against the Giants last week and didn't practice at all this week. He's out for this game, a huge loss to the Cowboys' defense.
• Brandin Cooks, WR (knee) -- Same as Parsons, Cooks is dealing with a knee injury and didn't practice at all this week. He's also ruled out for tonight. Jalen Tolbert has already drawn 19 targets, the second-highest total on the team. He should see an even higher volume of targets in Cooks' stead.
• Trevon Diggs, CB (ankle) -- Diggs popped up on the injury report Thursday, then didn't practice Friday. He's officially questionable for tonight. His absence would be another heavy blow to a defense that's been ripped apart by injuries.
• Marist Liufau, LB (quad) -- Liufau popped up on the injury report on Friday, then drew a questionable designation for tonight. Liufau isn't one of the centerpieces on the second level, but he's played 103 snaps this season. His absence would weaken the healthiest portion of the Dallas defense.
• Caelen Carson, CB (shoulder) -- Carson was able to work all week with a shoulder injury, but couldn't do anything more than in a limited role. He's officially questionable for tonight. The Cowboys desperately have to avoid both Diggs and Carson being inactive for this game. Otherwise, Dallas will be scraping the bottom of the barrel.
Players on injured reserve:
• DaRon Bland, CB (foot) *
• DeMarcus Lawrence, DE (foot)
• Earl Bostick Jr., OT (leg)
• Chuma Edoga, G (toe)
• Jordan Phillips, DT (wrist)
• Nathan Thomas, OT (undisclosed)
• Sam Williams, DE (knee)
*-designated to return
QUOTABLE
"A normal day for us back then, you watched the Steelers at one o'clock and the Cowboys at four o'clock. Those were great years. Four Super Bowls, two World Series and a national championship. So, it was a great time to be a kid in Pittsburgh." -- Mike McCarthy on being born and raised in Pittsburgh
"They're all different. Justin's always been a guy that can move around in the pocket. I think he's playing a lot better than he has. He's throwing the ball. I think he was 23 of 34 last week, something like that. I think he is doing a good job of taking care of the football as well. ... We have to be diligent in our pass rush lanes. When we get in those situations, we have to do a good job against the quarterback runs. We did a much better job against Daniel Jones when he was doing some of the quarterback zone reads. So, we're going to have to make sure we're on our Ps and Qs this week." -- Mike Zimmer, Cowboys defensive coordinator, on what he learned from defending Lamar Jackson and relating it to Justin Fields
"Me personally, I just hit my blocks. If the ball comes to me, it comes to me. If it don't, it don't. I don't really try and get a feel for an offense. I get them on the field. I am still a young player, so I haven't played them before. I don't know what they're like. Keep an open mind and be ready for the blocks." -- Mazi Smith, on the biggest challenge against the Steelers and a mobile quarterback
