PENGUINS

Looking at the Penguins' options for their 18 skaters dressed in Game 1 of the playoffs, it really only looks like one spot is realistically up for grabs.

The Penguins' defense of Parker Wotherspoon, Erik Karlsson, Sam Girard, Kris Letang, Ryan Shea and Connor Clifton seems pretty set -- not because they're infallible, but because none of the other options really showed much over this last week to bump any of those guys out.

At forward, there's one real hole, a void left by injuries to Blake Lizotte and Connor Dewar:

Egor Chinakhov - Sidney Crosby - Bryan Rust
Tommy Novak - Rickard Rakell - Evgeni Malkin
Anthony Mantha - Ben Kindel - Justin Brazeau
Elmer Soderblom - Noel Acciari - (?)

Dewar remains week-to-week, and there hasn't really been an update on Lizotte other than that he's skating on his own. He's yet to practice, and the team never gave a projected return date. Assuming neither are ready by Game 1, there's an opening at bottom-six forward.

After the Penguins' 7-5 loss to the Blues here in St. Louis in the regular-season finale ... has a standout emerged?

With the games turning meaningless after the Penguins clinched the No. 2 seed last week, the recalls gave the Penguins five potential options for that bottom-six slot -- Avery Hayes, Joona Koppanen, Rutger McGroarty and Ville Koivunen joining Kevin Hayes, coming out of the press box for the first time in over a month.

McGroarty, Kevin Hayes and Avery Hayes stood out for the better in the loss to the Blues. McGroarty opened the scoring with a quick-strike after Kevin Hayes won a faceoff in the offensive zone:

Avery Hayes doubled the lead, creating a breakaway for himself:

Kevin Hayes had a great play at the blue line to set up Anthony Mantha for a goal:

Later in the third, Avery Hayes netted his second of the game:

It was a good time for those three to have good games, and just makes things that much harder for the coaching staff. I asked Dan Muse about those three in particular:

"The guys did a great job, and that's what you want to see," Muse said. "Kevin Hayes, all three games, he's played really well. A couple of assists tonight, but it's not just that. His play, he was involved in a lot of plays both ends of the ice. Good job by Rut there on the goal at the faceoff. Avery, a strong from him as well. We're at a time where some guys are getting some opportunities, and that's what you hope, for guys to take advantage of those opportunities."

Kevin Hayes, over the three games, has been one of their more noticeable forwards for good reasons. He had a breakaway goal in the first game against Washington, and the two assists tonight, but he's been great beyond what shows up on the scoresheet. Tonight might have been his best of the three games -- he was making things happen around the net-front. He was winning draws, going 9-4, with one of those wins leading directly to McGroarty's goal. He always seemed to have the puck on his stick when he was out there.

"I think I played pretty well in the three games," he told me afterward. "You've got to stay ready. (Getting scratched) gets monotonous a little bit, but you want to be a true professional, you have to stay ready. It took me a little bit in the first game to find my legs, but I felt pretty good the last three games."

The Penguins have dressed 17 forwards in their last three games, with 12 of them playing in at least two of the games. Of the 12 to dress in at least two games, here's some of the relevant on-ice five-on-five metrics:

Shot attempts for percentage:
1. Kevin Hayes (55%)
2. Ville Koivunen (54.17%)
3. Justin Brazeau (53.73)
4. Rutger McGroarty (50%)
5. Avery Hayes (48.98%)

Unblocked attempts for percentage:
1. Justin Brazeau (54.55%)
2. Ville Koivunen (52%)
3. Kevin Hayes (51,16%)
4. Avery Hayes (45.71%)
5. Rutger McGroarty (45.45%)

Expected goals for percentage
1. Ville Koivunen (61.7%)
2. Justin Brazeau (61.35%)
3. Kevin Hayes (54.31%)
4. Avery Hayes (45.88%)
5. Elmer Soderblom (42.97%)

Goals scored
1. Kevin Hayes (80%, 4-1)
2. Noel Acciari (66.67%, 2-1)
3. Avery Hayes (60%, 3-2)
4. Justin Brazeau, Elmer Soderblom, Rutger McGroarty (tied, 50%)

The "eye test," the advanced numbers, the actual goals scored at five-on-five point toward Kevin Hayes being the best option in that bottom-six if Dewar and Lizotte can't go for Game 1. 

Kevin Hayes has the least long-term upside, obviously, of the group. He's almost 34, going up against a number of rookies. It would be nice for one of the younger forwards to benefit from the experience of NHL playoff games. But if these last three games were a legitimate audition, and they're looking at who played the best in that limited sample size ... it's Kevin Hayes.

Kevin Hayes knows that the likes of McGroarty, Koivunen and Avery Hayes are up here because they're ideally the long-term future and have real potential. He's really enjoyed taking on a leadership role and helping those guys grow, too. But if he gets picked over them for Game 1 over the playoffs, he's confident in what he can bring.

"No matter who goes into the lineup, Kyle (Dubas) has done a great job getting players to this organization," he told me. "Whoever's name gets called will be ready and will work as hard as they can. It's a hard-working group. I have a lot of playoff experience. I've succeeded in the playoffs before. If my name is called, I'll be ready."