I might be old school when it comes to baseball, because I grew up watching Pirates lineups built around a simple formula: A leadoff man reaching first, Jay Bell bunting him to second, and one of Andy Van Slyke, Bobby Bonilla or Barry Bonds driving him home.
That brand of baseball, rooted in speed and small-ball execution, has largely faded from today’s game. The modern leadoff hitter is no longer a Vince Coleman or Brett Butler type, but someone like Shohei Ohtani, who last season launched 51 home runs, struck out in 24% of his at-bats, stole 20 bases, and crossed the plate 139 times. The emphasis has shifted from manufacturing runs to maximizing power and on-base impact, and the Pirates are still searching for the right formula at the top of their order.
Last season, Oneil Cruz was given 268 plate appearances in the leadoff role, but his production fell well short of the elite standard. Cruz posted a 35.1% strikeout rate, the highest among all leadoff hitters with at least 200 plate appearances, while hitting 11 home runs, stealing 18 bases and scoring 37 runs. For perspective, the Athletics’ Lawrence Butler was a distant second in strikeout rate at 27.7% over 451 plate appearances, while the league-wide average sat at just 20.06.
As a group, Pirates leadoff hitters scored 93 runs, ranking 21st in Major League Baseball and 10 below the league average. Yet even with that underwhelming output, three playoff teams — the Reds, Guardians, and Mariners — finished with fewer runs from their leadoff spot, underscoring how lineup construction can vary across successful clubs.
The Pirates may need to rethink their approach, and Spencer Horwitz offers an intriguing alternative. In 131 plate appearances, the second-most on the team from the leadoff spot, Horwitz posted a .351 on-base percentage and struck out just 17.6% of the time. He doesn’t bring blazing speed, but in today’s game, that’s no longer a prerequisite for hitting first, as teams averaged 20 stolen bases from the leadoff position last season. What Horwitz does provide is consistency in reaching base, which could set the table for the heart of the order.
Shifting Cruz down to the third spot could unlock his potential as a run producer. In a small sample of 49 plate appearances batting third, Cruz’s strikeout rate dropped to 22.4% and his walk rate jumped from 11.9% to 20.4%, suggesting he may be more comfortable in a role where he can focus on driving the ball rather than setting the tone. A lineup that opens with Horwitz, followed by Bryan Reynolds and Cruz, would give the Pirates a balanced top three, especially if the front office can add a right-handed power bat to hit cleanup and force pitchers to challenge Cruz.
Next season cannot be about hoping players grow into roles they aren’t suited for. It must be about placing them in positions that maximize their strengths and minimize their weaknesses. For the Pirates, that process begins with moving Cruz out of the leadoff spot and redefining the top of the order around players who can consistently get on base and set the stage for the team’s best hitters.
THE ASYLUM
Analysis: Pirates must rethink leadoff strategy
I might be old school when it comes to baseball, because I grew up watching Pirates lineups built around a simple formula: A leadoff man reaching first, Jay Bell bunting him to second, and one of Andy Van Slyke, Bobby Bonilla or Barry Bonds driving him home.
That brand of baseball, rooted in speed and small-ball execution, has largely faded from today’s game. The modern leadoff hitter is no longer a Vince Coleman or Brett Butler type, but someone like Shohei Ohtani, who last season launched 51 home runs, struck out in 24% of his at-bats, stole 20 bases, and crossed the plate 139 times. The emphasis has shifted from manufacturing runs to maximizing power and on-base impact, and the Pirates are still searching for the right formula at the top of their order.
Last season, Oneil Cruz was given 268 plate appearances in the leadoff role, but his production fell well short of the elite standard. Cruz posted a 35.1% strikeout rate, the highest among all leadoff hitters with at least 200 plate appearances, while hitting 11 home runs, stealing 18 bases and scoring 37 runs. For perspective, the Athletics’ Lawrence Butler was a distant second in strikeout rate at 27.7% over 451 plate appearances, while the league-wide average sat at just 20.06.
As a group, Pirates leadoff hitters scored 93 runs, ranking 21st in Major League Baseball and 10 below the league average. Yet even with that underwhelming output, three playoff teams — the Reds, Guardians, and Mariners — finished with fewer runs from their leadoff spot, underscoring how lineup construction can vary across successful clubs.
The Pirates may need to rethink their approach, and Spencer Horwitz offers an intriguing alternative. In 131 plate appearances, the second-most on the team from the leadoff spot, Horwitz posted a .351 on-base percentage and struck out just 17.6% of the time. He doesn’t bring blazing speed, but in today’s game, that’s no longer a prerequisite for hitting first, as teams averaged 20 stolen bases from the leadoff position last season. What Horwitz does provide is consistency in reaching base, which could set the table for the heart of the order.
Shifting Cruz down to the third spot could unlock his potential as a run producer. In a small sample of 49 plate appearances batting third, Cruz’s strikeout rate dropped to 22.4% and his walk rate jumped from 11.9% to 20.4%, suggesting he may be more comfortable in a role where he can focus on driving the ball rather than setting the tone. A lineup that opens with Horwitz, followed by Bryan Reynolds and Cruz, would give the Pirates a balanced top three, especially if the front office can add a right-handed power bat to hit cleanup and force pitchers to challenge Cruz.
Next season cannot be about hoping players grow into roles they aren’t suited for. It must be about placing them in positions that maximize their strengths and minimize their weaknesses. For the Pirates, that process begins with moving Cruz out of the leadoff spot and redefining the top of the order around players who can consistently get on base and set the stage for the team’s best hitters.
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