A year ago, the Pirates stumbled out of the gate offensively. Through 20 games, they sat at 8–12 and posted one of the least productive starts in baseball, scoring just 67 runs (3.3 per game) while hitting .197 with 13 home runs, 21 doubles and 9.1 strikeouts per game.
This season, the script has flipped. At the same 20-game mark, Pittsburgh is 12–8 and tied with Cincinnati atop the National League Central. The bats have followed suit: 100 runs (5.0 per game), the eighth-most in MLB, paired with a .255 average, 22 home runs, 28 doubles and 8.95 strikeouts per game.
Underneath the surface numbers, the biggest difference has been traffic on the bases. The Pirates own the fourth-best team on-base percentage in the majors at .346; at this point last year, they ranked 27th at .283. Their batting average on balls in play has also surged—from .250 (29th) a year ago to .312 (fourth) after last night.
The batted-ball profile is broadly similar, with a few shifts worth monitoring over a full season. Last year through 20 games, Pittsburgh’s line-drive rate was 20.4% (fourth), alongside a 42.8% ground-ball rate (15th) and a 36.8% fly-ball rate (19th). This year those marks sit at 19.2%, 45.9% and 34.9%, respectively. If the Pirates want the power spike to hold, they’ll likely need the line-drive and fly-ball rates to trend back up.
One number that jumps off the page: the Pirates have gone from 21.5% to 27.4% in opposite-field rate on balls in play. The approach appears to be reinforced by new faces who were not in the lineup at this time a year ago, including Jake Mangum, Spencer Horwitz, Nick Yorke, Marcell Ozuna and Konnor Griffin.
Bryan Reynolds is a prime example. After 20 games last season, just 16.7% of his balls in play were going the other way; this year that figure is up to 28.0%, a snapshot of the wider shift that has helped Pittsburgh sustain longer at-bats and cash in more consistently early on.
Don Kelly on the approach and if teams are pitching them away: "Well, I don't know if it's consistently that way. I think that when we're talking to the guys, it's just when we do get pitched that way, making sure that we're in a good spot to, we're not trying to go the other way. We're trying to square the ball up and allow wherever we make contact determine the direction that it goes while staying in approach up the middle. I think that the guys are doing a really good job of that and we're not necessarily going up there trying to manipulate the ball and go the other way and allowing the depth of contact."
The sample is small and some regression is inevitable, particularly if the BABIP cools. But through 20 games, the Pirates’ improved on-base ability and willingness to use the whole field have turned last April’s offensive slog into one of the league’s better early-season starts.
THE ASYLUM
Early offensive turnaround
A year ago, the Pirates stumbled out of the gate offensively. Through 20 games, they sat at 8–12 and posted one of the least productive starts in baseball, scoring just 67 runs (3.3 per game) while hitting .197 with 13 home runs, 21 doubles and 9.1 strikeouts per game.
This season, the script has flipped. At the same 20-game mark, Pittsburgh is 12–8 and tied with Cincinnati atop the National League Central. The bats have followed suit: 100 runs (5.0 per game), the eighth-most in MLB, paired with a .255 average, 22 home runs, 28 doubles and 8.95 strikeouts per game.
Underneath the surface numbers, the biggest difference has been traffic on the bases. The Pirates own the fourth-best team on-base percentage in the majors at .346; at this point last year, they ranked 27th at .283. Their batting average on balls in play has also surged—from .250 (29th) a year ago to .312 (fourth) after last night.
The batted-ball profile is broadly similar, with a few shifts worth monitoring over a full season. Last year through 20 games, Pittsburgh’s line-drive rate was 20.4% (fourth), alongside a 42.8% ground-ball rate (15th) and a 36.8% fly-ball rate (19th). This year those marks sit at 19.2%, 45.9% and 34.9%, respectively. If the Pirates want the power spike to hold, they’ll likely need the line-drive and fly-ball rates to trend back up.
One number that jumps off the page: the Pirates have gone from 21.5% to 27.4% in opposite-field rate on balls in play. The approach appears to be reinforced by new faces who were not in the lineup at this time a year ago, including Jake Mangum, Spencer Horwitz, Nick Yorke, Marcell Ozuna and Konnor Griffin.
Bryan Reynolds is a prime example. After 20 games last season, just 16.7% of his balls in play were going the other way; this year that figure is up to 28.0%, a snapshot of the wider shift that has helped Pittsburgh sustain longer at-bats and cash in more consistently early on.
Don Kelly on the approach and if teams are pitching them away: "Well, I don't know if it's consistently that way. I think that when we're talking to the guys, it's just when we do get pitched that way, making sure that we're in a good spot to, we're not trying to go the other way. We're trying to square the ball up and allow wherever we make contact determine the direction that it goes while staying in approach up the middle. I think that the guys are doing a really good job of that and we're not necessarily going up there trying to manipulate the ball and go the other way and allowing the depth of contact."
The sample is small and some regression is inevitable, particularly if the BABIP cools. But through 20 games, the Pirates’ improved on-base ability and willingness to use the whole field have turned last April’s offensive slog into one of the league’s better early-season starts.
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